Here are my minimum to maximum seat projections based on polling data by each riding from April 28-30 polls from Nanos, EKOS, and Decima
Con: 114 - 151
NDP:102 - 138
Lib: 43 -70
Bloc: 0 - 6
Green: 0 - 1
Minimum = seats where, based on the above polls mentioned, the party has a good lead over the other parties.
Maximum = add in all the seats where the party is in a tight race with other parties. There are about 49 tight races across the country.
As you can see, we will end up with either a Conservative or NDP minority government, with one of those parties forming the official opposition. The Liberals will fall back to 3rd place, and the Bloc will become almost non-existent (it even looks like Gilles may loose his seat!). Elizabeth May is in a very tight race for her Green Party seat where so far the Conservatives are slightly leading.
If the NDP surge continues at the pace it has been going in the past few days, it will be a very tight race for who wins the most seats - NDP or Conservatives. If the surge increases even more, then we will definitely have an NDP minority government.
QUÉBEC CITY – NDP Leader Jack Layton today pledged to support cities with dedicated resources to build green infrastructure, upgrade water treatment facilities, build affordable housing, and keep communities safe.
At a rousing breakfast rally in Québec City, Layton told supporters that strong, sustainable cities are key to Canada’s future.
“Canadian cities drive innovation, attract investment, and are an engine for job creation,” said Layton. “But Stephen Harper has turned his back on cities with no long-term plan to meet today’s growing challenges.”
Layton said he will work together with cities in Québec, and throughout Canada, to build green infrastructure and provide the quality of life we need to be leaders in tomorrow’s economy.
“My plan dedicates resources to build green infrastructure, with targeted funds for urban transit, clean water, research and development,” said Layton. “It will help communities like Quebec City and all across Canada realize their vision for a healthy and sustainable future.”
Layton told supporters that Québecers are turning to the NDP to change Ottawa.
“The NDP is on the move in Québec,” said Layton. “Everywhere I go I can feel the momentum growing. Québecers want to break from the status quo with new leadership they can trust. Working together, we can make it happen.”