Federal NDP On The Rise In Vote-Rich Ontario

ThreeHundredEight.com: Massive NDP leads in Quebec, Ontario competitive: Two federal polls conducted recently in Quebec by Forum Research and CROP indicate that the New Democrats have not only taken the lead, th...

The Federal NDP are doing well in Quebec and improving in Ontario.
The big story here is not how well they are doing in Quebec as that has been known since the end of March (there have been a number of polls showing that they are, by far, back on top in Quebec since the convention March 24th), but how well they are doing in Ontario compared to election time.

Here is a comparison of how the parties are faring in Ontario

Party - Election - April 18, 2012
Con - 44% - 36% (down 8%)
NDP - 26% - 32% (up 6%)
Lib - 25% - 24% (down 1%)

(Source: Forum Research poll April 23, 2012 - sample size 980)

The general trend here is that the Conservatives are steadily dropping, the Liberals have stayed about the same, while the NDP has continued the trend of increasing support that started just before the election. This is huge for the NDP as Ontario has so many seats, and for the NDP to become the next government, they will need to significantly increase their seats here. If they can continue this trend of increasing support in Ontario over the next 3 years, we will see an NDP government in 2015.

Ontario - Cyclists are here to stay - get with the program

Toronto News: Hume: What goes around in Quebec comes around in Ontario - thestar.com
Excerpts:
This isn’t a matter of right or left, but of right and wrong. Due to
circumstances well beyond the city’s control, this is the direction we
are headed. For any number of reasons — climate change, fuel costs,
congestion and diminished resources — the heyday of the car is over and
alternatives are needed.
...

Toronto and Ontario’s unwillingness to take the bicycle seriously is a
sign of culture grown tired, irritable and brittle. Whether it’s wind
turbines, road tolls or bike lanes, we’re unable to keep up. Provincial
Conservative leader Tim Hudak has made it clear clean energy and the
environment have no place in his party’s platform.

Same thing with Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s regime, which
announced recently it plans to lay off 700 staff at the federal
environment ministry, a shocking display of contempt.

“Cycle tourism has been wildly successful in other places,” notes
Toronto MPP Tabuns, who met this week with various cycling groups that
hope to use a $351,800 grant from the Ontario Trillium Foundation to
promote bicycle tourism.

“I am glad we are doing it here,” says Tabuns, “promoting clean, green, healthy jobs.”

The fact remains, however, that cyclists are generally unwelcome on
the streets of Toronto, let alone Ontario. We’re not talking here about
bike lanes on the 401, but many other provincial thoroughfares where
there’s room.

According to our licence plates, Ontario is “Yours to Discover.” “Yours to Recover” might be more to the point.

Why Layton's fit for office

Why Layton’s fit for office - The Globe and Mail
Brian Topp clears up some misconceptions and misunderstandings regarding Jack Layton and Quebec in Canada.

Layton's opponents have claimed "he sold his soul to Quebec separatists to obtain this [NDP lead in Quebec] result."

From the article:

A foolish thing to say, in the case of Michael Ignatieff. Mr. Ignatieff said substantially everything Mr. Layton has said on the question of Quebec’s constitutional status, essentially word-for-word, in 2006.

And a foolish thing to say, in the case of Stephen Harper – author of the House of Common’s “Quebec is a nation” resolution, flowing directly from Mr. Ignatieff’s 2006 statements.

So what is there is to say about this matter, one of many issues (by no means the most pressing) on the minds of those francophone Quebeckers, who are – maybe just maybe – a few days away from re-engaging with federal governance?

There is this: It remains true that the Quebec National Assembly has not ratified the 1982 amendments. This is an issue that will have to be addressed at some point. The time to address it is when we can be sure we will succeed.

There is this: One of the necessary preconditions to “succeeding” is having a new and better federal government that francophone Quebeckers see themselves in, and that is working on priorities they support.

There is this: In the 1998 reference case, the Supreme Court wrote the rulebook on any future referendum, should there be one but hopefully there won’t. Both then-Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard and then-prime minister Jean Chrétien welcomed this ruling at the time.

And there is this: Fewer Bloc MPs in Parliament is good for Quebec and good for the rest of Canada. Working to re-involve francophone Quebecers in the governance of Canada is what Canadians hope and expect an aspirant for prime minister to do. Acknowledging this issue, as Mr. Layton did when asked (as anyone campaigning in Quebec inevitably will be) is respectful of the views of francophone Quebeckers, and is therefore good nation-building.

Mr. Layton is making a remarkable contribution to Canada in this election by reaching out successfully to French-speaking Quebeckers – something that has eluded all other national leaders in Canada for over twenty years. He has addressed these issues responsibly and with due respect for Canada’s unity, our laws, our democracy and our respect for each other.

That’s what people who are fit for office do.

NDP Lead in Quebec

NDP surges to top spot in Quebec,Bloc Québécois campaign flagging | iPolitics
Montreal Gazette: NDP surge to the lead in Quebec: poll

The latest polls in Quebec by CROP and EKOS both put the NDP in the lead now over all the other parties. If this carries over to election day, it will be an historic moment for Quebec, the NDP and politics in Canada.

Ekos:
NDP: 31%
Bloc: 23.7%
LPC: 20.6%
CPC: 16.9%

CROP:
NDP: 36%
Bloc: 31%
CPC: 17%
LPC: 13%

Such momentum can only help to push the NDP higher in the polls across the rest of Canada. At the rate they are rising, we may even see a minority NDP government with a Conservative opposition.

More news and posts on this topic:
Cyberpresse.ca : The NDP took the lead in Quebec
(Note: this is the google translated page)

Mike Watkins dot ca: NDP Lead in Quebec

Blunt Objects: NDP officially becomes the new Bloc Quebecois



Cyberpresse.ca : Seriously, good Jack!
(also translated by google here)

NDP poised to take Gatineau

Duceppe on the defensive in Gatineau
The NDP polling trend in Gatineau has been ever increasing, while the Bloc has been dropping.
As of April 12th, the projection numbers were (from ThreeHundredEight.com) 29.5% for Bloc and 28.9% for NDP. A couple of weeks ago, the Bloc was leading with a much higher margin. The NDP numbers have been steadily climbing here.

NDP on the rise in Quebec - now placing 2nd, ahead of Liberals and Conservatives

NDP leads federal parties vying to capture Quebec imagination - The Globe and Mail
Bloc 41%
NDP 20%
Liberals 18%
Conservatives 16%

Date of poll: just before March 15, 2011

A step in the right direction for Quebec

Quebec bans niqab from government services - thestar.com
MONTREAL—Muslim women will need to uncover their faces from now on if
they want to deal with the Quebec government, according to landmark
legislation tabled Wednesday in the province.
...

That inquiry pointed out one lingering inconsistency in the argument
of those who claim to be defenders of a secular state: the giant
crucifix that still hangs on the wall of the provincial legislature.

Wednesday’s bill was silent on the Bouchard-Taylor commission’s
recommendation that the crucifix also be removed.

The NDP In Quebec

While one blogger interprets what Jack Layton said and turns it into an April Fool's joke (by saying that Jack thinks that "Conservatives are actually Socialists"), another blogger reports on reality in Another Star Recruit.

1) What Jack meant was that if the ADQ breakthrough in Quebec in the provincial election means that the people of Quebec were dissatisfied with the usual 2 parties and chose another party, then there may be a chance for the NDP to breakthrough in Quebec federally - the NDP are "another" party in Quebec that has not been given a chance. If the people are dissatisfied with the Bloc and Liberals, they might vote NDP.

2) However, there is another point here. The ADQ are a right-wing party, as are the Conservatives. IF the people of Quebec were ALSO voting for the ADQ agenda, they very well might turn around and vote for the Conservatives in a federal election.

But, Quebec is generally a socialist province with values contrary to conservative agenda. So, I'm more inclined to agree with point 1 than point 2. I do agree with Accidental Deliberations in that even one Quebec seat in a general election would be a major breakthrough for the NDP.