Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”


News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

Canadian Support For Abolishing The Senate Is Gaining Ground - UPDATED

UPDATE

I just got the EKOS poll results from Oct. 29, 2013
These poll results show an even stronger support for Senate abolition
53.8% of Canadians support abolishing the Senate.

Regional support
Provinces that support abolition with  over 50% support: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec (Sask and Que are the highest with 68% and 67% support)

Provinces that support abolition with less than 50% Atlantic, Manitoba, and Ontario

Age
Highest support (52% to 59%) are those older than 35 years
Lowest support is amongst those younger than 35 years (49%)

Party Support
Highest support is amongst Conservative, NDP and Bloc supporters (62% to 74%)
Lowest support is amongst the Liberal (40.6%) and Green (49.4%) supporters

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_29_2013.pdf

 .....

As Canadians have become more aware of the Senate through exposure to the Senate Scandal, they are, more and more, realizing that there is no place in a modern democracy for a Senate.

More people favour making the Senate an elected body, but the support for abolition is gaining ground and has almost caught up.

6 years ago, the difference was 31%, today it is only 6%

Favour an elected Senate: 57%(2007), 42%(Feb. 2013), 49%(June 2013), 49%(Oct. 2013)

Favour abolishing the Senate: 26%(2007), 36%(Feb. 2013), 41%(June 2013), 43%(Oct. 2013)

Sources:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/18/canadian-senate/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/majority-wants-senate-changed-or-abolished-poll-suggests-1.1398046

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13127

In the latest results from the Ipsos-Reid poll (Oct. 2013) the regions who favour abolition over reform the most are Quebec (54% to 39%) and Atlantic (54% to 45%). All other regions favour reform over abolition with Ontario and BC favouring it the most (53%).

It will be interesting to see where these numbers are in 2015. It will take the support of the majority of provinces to make any major change regarding the Senate (including abolishing it).

ADDENDUM
For more information on abolishing the Senate:
Abolish The Senate: A Sober Second Look At Canadian Democracy - Facts

The NDP's Roll Up The Red Carpet campaign

Democracy Watch's Shut Down The Senate campaign

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_abolished_upper_houses

NDP Democratic and Parliamentary Reform Critic Craig Scott - Abolish The Senate

News and opinion:
Abolish the Senate say local MPs

Idea of Senate Abolition Gaining Momentum Inside Conservative Caucus

OpEd: Senate Abolition The Best Course

Manitoba Joins Move To Abolish The Senate

If Canadian's Vote To Abolish The Senate, Politicians Must Listen

Canadian Senate Abolition Idea Gaining Momentum Among Tories

Abolish the Senate Instead Of Trying To Reform It

Majority of Province's Residents Prefer To See Senate Abolished, Says Poll

Harper's plans for the Senate will create a showdown against the provinces.

Senate showdown looms - thestar.com
On one side, there will be the Conservative government. On the other side will be the opposition parties (or, at least the NDP) and the provinces - many of which would like to abolish the Senate altogether (as the NDP would like to do).

Excerpts:
Ontario is poised to join Quebec in a constitutional showdown with
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his plans for Senate reform.

Quebec has already served notice
that it is preparing to challenge Harper’s go-it-alone approach to
changing the Senate — arguing that he can’t change a basic institution
of Parliament without the support of the provinces.

...

Such a battle would pit Harper’s majority government against Canada’s
two largest provinces and threaten to open up the kind of
constitutional quagmire that swallowed up the last Conservative majority
government in Canada in the 1980s and early 1990s.

It also could be a sign of a new frontier opening up in opposition to Harper’s Conservatives.

Harper’s main headaches were caused
by his federal political rivals when he had minority control in Ottawa
from 2006 to the recent election. But with a majority in Parliament,
easily able to pass his legislation, Harper may be forced to look
increasingly to the provinces for potential obstacles to his plans.

Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae, a
former Ontario premier, agrees that Harper is out on a constitutional
limb in trying to change the Senate without provincial consent.

“Look, the Senate is a child of the
Constitution of Canada. It doesn’t belong to Stephen Harper,” Rae said.
“It’s all nonsensical. The Senate, if there’s going to be reform, it has
to start with the provinces and the federal government sitting down and
trying to get to an answer. And that’s the beginning and the end of
it.”

Constitutional expert Ned Franks also calls the new legislation “dead in the water.”

“That one is sure to get shot down by
the Supreme Court because that’s a substantial reform and that can’t be
done without the consent of the provinces,” Franks told the Star’s Richard J. Brennan this week.

Ontario is now officially in favour
of abolishing the Senate — a position also championed by the NDP
opposition in Parliament, as well as several provinces such as Manitoba
and Nova Scotia.

“If the government is going to insist
on reforming the Senate, we think it should be abolished,” Smith said,
echoing Premier Dalton McGuinty’s recent declarations on that same
score.

...

NDP leader Jack Layton said Tuesday that the proposed reforms just
reinforce his party’s view that the Senate should be abolished. Just
before the last election, the NDP introduced a bill to hold a nationwide
referendum on scrapping the Senate.

“They are going to create a monster
here, because you will have at the end of the day … an elected body that
may or may not be elected, that the Prime Minister may or may not
accept the recommendations that come out of an election,” Layton said.
“It’s going to be one ugly scene and throughout that generation, we will
spend $100 million a year feeding this beast which will by and large
stand in the way of democracy in this country … It’s a disaster for
Canadian democracy, all wrapped up in the guise of Senate reform.”

Senate protester DePape offered job by Michael Moore

Doc maker Michael Moore backs rogue page over stunt - thestar.com
"For a young person to do that and to do it peacefully, and quietly
and with grace, I thought it was a very powerful moment,” Moore told The
Canadian Press on Sunday from New York.

“Every now and then there is an
iconic moment where an individual takes action, and it inspires others
to think about, you know, what else would we be doing.”

...
“It's nice to have the support of people who think critically,” DePape said by phone on Sunday.
...

Moore said a functioning democracy should “encourage you to be disrespectful, to question what is going on.”

“I think that Canada and Canadians
probably need to put aside the full respect thing and bring out their
inner hockey stick and get to work on preventing their government from
turning into a version of ours,” he said.

DePape said she has no regrets about
the incident and remains convinced the best way to stop the Harper
government is through acts of civil disobedience.

“I really think it's only through
inappropriate action that you can challenge the status quo and have real
change,” she said, adding that she's been overwhelmed by positive
feedback from Canadians.

“It's been really inspiring.”

More than a dozen Facebook pages in
support of DePape have already popped up, with names such as “Canadian
hero” and a “True Canadian Patriot.”

“You are such an encouragement for
this old WWII veteran and I so admire your courage and commitment to
this just cause for which you stand so bravely,” said a comment
attributed to Bruce Jones that was posted on one Facebook page.

A “Stop Harper” protest inspired by DePape has already been planned for Ottawa on June 10.

From Moore's web site:

Best Contempt of Parliament Ever!
Speaker of Canadian Senate holds DePape in "Contempt of Parliament" – the same thing Stephen Harper's government was charged with for lying to and concealing information from parliament.

Brigette Marcelle - Stop Harper Facebook page.

A Senate page is fired for saying what most Canadians are saying

Senate page fired for anti-Harper protest - Politics - CBC News

Brigette DePape, a Senate page,  stood on the Senate floor during the Governor General's reading of the speech from the throne holding a Stop Harper sign. She was nearing the end of her term as a page. She was removed and fired.

From Brigette's news release:
"Harper's agenda is disastrous for this country and for my generation,"
DePape said in the release. "We have to stop him from wasting billions
on fighter jets, military bases, and corporate tax cuts while cutting
social programs and destroying the climate. Most people in this country
know what we need are green jobs, better medicare, and a healthy
environment for future generations."

"This country needs a Canadian version of an Arab Spring, a flowering of
popular movements that demonstrate that real power to change things
lies not with Harper but in the hands of the people, when we act
together in our streets, neighbourhoods and workplaces."

Hear hear!

Coward Thug Harper Appoints More Failures To The Senate

PM rewards three defeated Conservatives with Senate seats - The Globe and Mail
How to become a senator under Harper? Show that the people don't want you to represent them. Another way Harper shows his contempt for the Canadian people.

Stephen Harper wasted no time in bringing back three defeated
candidates, appointing former Quebec cabinet minister Josée Verner to
the Senate and reappointing Larry Smith and Fabian Manning.

Minutes
after he finished answering questions from reporters about his cabinet
shuffle, the Prime Minister’s Office sent out a release announcing the
three appointments. So Mr. Harper did not have to address the issue in
public.

Buckdog: NO Possibility Of Democratic Reform Under Harper Regime

Canada's new senators

"Mr. Harper talks about Senate reform but he's doing things in the
same old way, in fact even worse. He's taking people who have been
defeated, who have been rejected by voters. You should earn your place
in the Senate and if you can't get elected, you shouldn't be appointed
to the Senate two weeks later."

Jack Layton

Leader of the Official Opposition

Conservative senators passing bad bills that the Liberals let through in the House of Commons

Conservative senators bulldoze through worrying bills - Hill Queeries
We are hearing a lot about what the Conservative senators are doing now that they have a virtual majority in the Senate. But half of what they are doing that people are upset about is passing bad bills that the Liberals allowed to pass in the House of Commons (either by voting to support the bill, or abstaining/not showing up).

It is one thing to complain about a bill, that you backed (like the Climate bill that all the opposition parties supported fully), that had the support of the majority of the House of Commons, being shot down by the Conservative senators. But it's another thing to complain about the Conservative senators passing bills that were supported by a majority of the House of Commons (Conservatives and Liberals).

Now, maybe if the Liberals in the House actually voted against bills they did not agree with in the House we would not have this situation.

Something to think about next election.

Senate Passes Trojan Horse Budget Bill

On Monday the Senate voted to pass the omnibus budget implementation bill. They voted against the amendments which would have split the non-budget items from the bill. The vote to pass the budget as-is was 48-44. A number of Liberal senators were absent. If they had showed up, the non-budget items would have been split from the budget bill, and there would most likely be a Federal Election.

In June, when the House of Commons voted on this bill, 30 Liberal MPs did not show up so that the Liberals could allow the bill to pass and avoid an election.

But, what is of importance here is the set of non-budget items that have been passed along with the budget:

• Authorization for the sale of the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. with no debate or public scrutiny;
• A move towards privatization of Canada Post by removing Canada Post’s exclusive right to collect Canadian mail destined for delivery in other countries;
• Approval for the draining of the Employment Insurance Account, which held a surplus of $57 billion in premiums paid in over the past decade by workers and businesses.
• Weakening of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act by handing responsibility for environmental assessments to the provinces and to the National Energy Board.

A grim day for Canada.

CBC: Senate Passes Budget Bill

Challenging the Commonplace: Update - a message from Ignatieff's Liberal senators

CBC Inside Politics Blog: The budget bill vote: the tale of the no-show senators

CBC Inside Politics Blog: Updated - Senatewatch: the not so magnificent seven

Liberals Keep Cons In Power - Again

"I can't believe that the Prime Minister is just literally giving Canadians the finger."

TheStar.com | Canada | Harper's Senate plan blasted

For someone who was all about making the Senate more fair, representative and elected, this is an odd way to suddenly deal with the Senate.

OTTAWA–Constitutional experts and opposition parties yesterday
condemned Prime Minister Stephen Harper's plan to fill every empty
Senate seat in advance of his government's possible defeat in the new
year.

Constitutional scholar Desmond Morton called the move a
scandal in view of the precarious position of Harper's minority
government.

"He has the power to do it, but he shouldn't have the gall," said Morton, a professor emeritus at McGill University.

"I
think it's more in keeping with the principles of parliamentary
democracy that a potentially lame-duck administration should not make
appointments," said constitutional scholar Ned Franks.

Harper
will name the new senators before Christmas – likely in one fell swoop
– in a move his office says will bolster the chances of eventual Senate
reform, but opposition critics called a hyper-partisan power grab.

"It's
outrageous," said New Democrat MP and reform critic David
Christopherson (Hamilton Centre), whose party advocates abolishing the
Senate. "I can't believe that the Prime Minister is just literally
giving Canadians the finger."

Read more of the article at the link above.