Disecting Ford Nation - Part Three - Nov. 20, 2013

Crack smoking admission, "rage/murder threats" video, oral sex comment, international embarrassment, bullying and immature behaviour in council, ... After a series of things that confirm, for most people, that Rob Ford should resign as Mayor of Toronto, Ford still enjoys significant support.  Unbelievable you say? How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?


Today I will look at 5 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 and Nov. 20, 2013. Again, I will look at the groups with the highest initial approval ratings on Oct. 28-29 to see if there are any significant changes.

Significant observations
• Overall approval has stayed about the same
• Support remains highest among men
• Support from seniors continues to drop (by 10% since the first of these polls), and Other Christians (by 15%)
• We see a sudden drop in support in the recent poll among these groups: Scarborough, Low Income, Other Christian
• We see a significant rise in support amongst these groups that formerly had lower support ratings: 45-54 years of age, Etobicoke or York, Renters, $60-$80k, Catholics,  Households with children

What does this mean?
We can see that the demographics of Ford Nation are changing somewhat as a result of the new revelations and incidents. Some people are starting to change their mind against Rob Ford, while others are becoming more supportive, thus, keeping the approval rating fairly steady.

The biggest swing between groups is the drop in support in Scarborough and the rise in support in Etobicoke. Maybe this means that the people of Scarborough are having second thoughts about the expensive subway plan (vs. the already-paid-for LRT plan), and the people of Etobicoke are feeling the need to rally around their hometown boy.

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44% - 42%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56% - 58%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48% - 47%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44% - 40%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53% - 53%

Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52% - 55%


SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50% - 49%


DROPPED AND THEN LEVELLED OFF
Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77% - 77%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59% - 43%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54% - 49%

Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40% - 39%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57% - 51%




And here are new groups that have, over the time of these polls, risen to be the top supporters that were not initially top supporters.

Age - 45-54
46%

Region - Etobicoke or York
57%

Renters
46%

Household income - $60-$80k
53%

Religion - Catholic
54%

Have Children
49%

Rob Ford - Another Day, Another Apology

After a long and eventful day at City Council, wherein Ford had his power even further reduced, Rob and Doug Ford sat down for an interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge.

It is long and painful to watch if you have an aversion to lies and buffoons.

Here are some highlights:

Rob Ford claims he has never been drunk while driving. (Yet, his staff have witnessed him drunk driving).

Rob Ford admitted, during the interview that he has, since becoming mayor,
- smoked marijuana at least once,
- smoked crack only once,
- been high on cocaine more than once (but then denied it - claiming it was when he was a teen, not recently (He has been seen snorting cocaine while he has been mayor),
- purchased drugs, and that this is an illegal act, and he agrees that people should think that he should be charged for buying drugs. (Then he tried to deflect from this admission by claiming that other councillors have purchased marijuana).

Rob Ford claims he has never been on drugs while in his office. He claims the last time he did drugs was "a year ago sometime."

He thinks that everyone has been as high or drunk as he has, to the point where there are memory blackouts.

And, on why he is not talking to the police:
His lawyer has advised him to not talk to the police [regarding any of the on-going investigations - there are current investigations regarding drugs, extortion and murder].
> Mansbridge: What kind of signal does that send?
Ford: Talk to my lawyer.

What kind of signal indeed.

Toronto Centre By-election: Could Be A Tight Race With Support For Linda McQuaig, NDP, Rising

In the latest poll, Liberal candidate Crystia Freeland leads with 46% support, and the NDP candidate Linda McQuaig is second with 35% support.

Looking at only those numbers, it seems like the election is a sure thing for the Liberals. However, when we look at the way the numbers are trending, things look much closer.

In the last 3 Forum polls we see that

Liberal support went from 49% to 45% to 46% - dropped and then levelled off.

while the NDP support went from 25% to 30% to 35% - rising continually.

If the trend continues, we could see a solid swath of NDP MPs right across downtown Toronto.

Disecting Ford Nation - Part Two - Nov. 6, 2013

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 4 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 (after the 1st video revelation and Ford's confession, but before the release of the "rage/murder threats" video).


Changes
Approval stays about the same since the Nov. 4th poll.
The most significant changes in Ford Nation are:
• Support has risen amongst men and people in Scarborough
• Support from seniors continues to drop




Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53%


Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52%

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50%




Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59%

SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77%

Disecting Ford Nation - Part One - Recent Numbers

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 3 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, and Nov. 4, 2013 (just before the video revelation to just before the confession by Ford).

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date


Approval
39% - 44% - 43%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45%

Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55%

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53%



SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74%

Linda McQuaig Is The NDP Candidate for Toronto-Centre

Congratulations to Linda McQuaig who won the NDP nomination today to be their candidate for the upcoming Toronto-Centre federal riding.

http://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2013/09/15/linda_mcquaig_wins_ndp_nomination_in_toronto_centre.html

Rob Ford Attempts To Keep Toronto From Having Input On Transit Funding

Rob Ford and his council lackeys want to differ discussing transit funding until AFTER Metrolinx' deadline to agree on what they will present to the province - in other words, until after it is too late to have their input considered by Metrolinx in their recommendations to the province.

Typical Rob Ford/Ford Nation idiocy.

The mayor should be doing all he can to encourage ideas and debate on this issue in order to come up with some input for Metrolinx BEFORE this deadline. Instead, he is burying his head in the sand and trying to stifle progress, as usual.

Transit Fees: Ford, Councillors Headed For A Showdown

Mayor Rob Ford Countdown Clock

Instead of checking the news to see when the exact time and date of Rob Ford's removal from office is, just bookmark the Mayor Rob Ford Countdown Clock page!

Stock up and champagne and party horns as the time is fast approaching.

Start the betting pool on whether he will have to be forcibly removed from office or not when the time comes.

A BBQ That Rob Ford Won't Enjoy

Mayor Rob Ford to face public Clayton Ruby cross-examination in conflict case

"Mayor Rob Ford has been forced to testify in open court, and face cross-examination from prominent lawyer Clayton Ruby, in a high-stakes conflict of interest lawsuit that could push him out of office.

The lawsuit accuses Ford of breaking provincial law by voting in February on the issue of whether he should have to pay back a total of $3,150 to lobbyists, clients of lobbyists, and a corporation whose donations to his football foundation he improperly accepted.

Ottawa judge Charles Hackland’s Friday decision to make him take the stand means he will face an unusual public grilling from one of the country’s top legal minds.

...

The Municipal Conflict of Interest Act says members of council are to recuse themselves from the debate and the vote on any issue in which they have a financial interest.

The penalties are severe. If a member of council takes part in a debate or vote despite a conflict, the law says the judge “shall” force him out of office and “may” bar him from rejoining council for up to seven years" 

Grill away Clayton!

UPDATE
More details in this Globe & Mail article 

Key segment of testimony so far, from the linked G&M article:

Ruby: You deliberately chose to make the speech you did and vote the way you did?

Ford: Absolutely.

Ruby: And you don’t regret for a moment having done that?

Ford: Absolutely not.

Mayor Rob Ford caught reading while driving

Mayor Rob Ford caught reading while driving

Listen (click the link) to Toronto Mayor Rob Ford admit to reading while driving.

This morning, a photo was taken of him reading while he was driving (at a speed of about 70km/hr) on the Gardener Expressway (see photo at bottom of this post).

This appeared on Facebook later in the day

Okay, yes, some people will be upset about how the person who snapped the shot was also doing something they should not have been doing while driving. But the elephant in the room cannot be ignored. Rob Ford admitted to reading while driving - not just in this instance, but - in general. It is something he does regularly. And, he sees no problem in doing this. Doing this, especially in crowded fast-moving traffic, is a danger not only to himself, but to many people in the other cars around him. Lives are at stake here.

The other issue here is the fact that here we have the mayor of Toronto setting a horrible example (again) and just shrugging it off (again) as if it is no big deal. 

I won't go into details about all the other similarly foolish things he has said and done as they are so numerous that you have probably read all about them (unless you live in a cave).

More details here and here.
Photo by Twitter user @ryanghaughton.

Doug Ford + foot + mouth - brain =

Today on the Rob and Doug show. Doug Ford (speaking to Rob):

“They’re so many great teams, I wouldn’t want to pick one over the other. I guess (in the) Euro, you go back to the ancestors — boy, we go back quite a ways, but I’m not too sure — is there any WASPy teams on there? We’re just Canadian,” he said with a laugh. “Anyways — well, you’re married to the Polack, so you gotta cheer for the Polish team.”
....
Here's the best part (in reference to his Polish comment):
Doug Ford: “I didn’t realize it was derogatory."

Then, later in the show:
Doug Ford joked that homeless people should be given plastic bags to sell outside stores after Toronto’s bag ban comes into effect

From
Toronto Star: Councillor Doug Ford apologizes for using ‘Polack’ to describe Mayor Rob Ford’s wife

More Doug + foot + mouth - brains quotes here - from the same day on the show. Listener Mel has a good point that the mayor and Doug did zero preparation going into council to try to get the 5 cent bag tax stopped, so much of the blame of how things turned out must lie with them. Doug still has no clue and proceeds to put his foot in his mouth with his response to listener Mel.

Rob Ford Could Be Removed From Office In Early September

Mark Sept. 5, 6 and 7 on your calendars. That is when Toronto Mayor Rob Ford will be in court regarding his breach of a conflict of interest law. If the judge finds against him, he will be removed from office and banned from running for public office for 7 years.

Toronto Star
Mayor Rob Ford will be in court in early September refuting a conflict of interest allegation that, if proven, would force him from office.
Lawyer Clayton Ruby, representing a Toronto resident who filed the complaint, announced Friday that Superior Court Justice Charles Hackland will hear the case Sept. 5, 6 and 7.

Rob Ford Is Doing Bad, Bad Things

Centa says the questions of whether Ford improperly took funding from his family company and overspent his campaign limit are important to the provincial Municipal Elections Act, and to democracy itself.
“Mr. Ford was, and is, represented by excellent counsel and we think the interests of justice are best served when both parties are represented by capable counsel to . . . allow the court to make the best decision possible.”
Ruby cites the same pro bono principle but is more pointed when it comes to Ford’s conduct.
“I think (Ford) is doing bad, bad things,” Ruby said. “It’s not a left-right thing . . . He came in as a bully determined to demonize anyone who disagrees with him, and is a person whose approach to governance is not what I think is in the Canadian public interest.
“If Mayor Ford gets a pass, for whatever reason he may advance, why would everyone not get a pass, and then integrity doesn’t have the importance that the legislation of Ontario placed on it.” 
- From the Toronto Star: Mayor Rob Ford vs the lawyers

Nail In The Coffin For Rob Ford On The Transit File

Rob Ford lost a another key vote today in Toronto City Council. Weeks ago, the councillors called a meeting to bring back Transit City (essentially), voted on it, and Transit City is back. Also at that time they formed a special panel to look into the options for Sheppard East. The panel came back and highly endorsed LRT for Sheppard East. Yesterday and today council met to discuss and vote on what Sheppard East would get - subway, LRT, or some combination. Today, council voted 24-19 for LRT on Sheppard East. 

Council has completed shut out the mayor and has taken over the transit file for Toronto. Now we can get back to building Transit City for all the city.

The mayor had control for his first year in office. He bullied people into wasting time and money and racked up his own brand of Gravy Train. But, council has finally said enough (or the Mushy Middle has decided to). They stopped his madness in the Portlands, and now they have put things back on track for transit evolution in Toronto after a year hiatus. Councillors now see that they can get things done if they work together, to hell with Rob Ford and his mad schemes and bully tactics.

I think the quote of the day that nails it on the head is from councillor Kristyn Wong-tam:
from Torontoist:
11:13 AM: Now up: Kristyn Wong-Tam. She calls Rob Ford’s cancellation of Transit City on his first day in office “flippant,” tells him “Mayor Ford, your time has run out.” Calm though—mood in the room now quite subdued. And then: “We cannot continue to follow a man with no plan… Mayor Ford had the ball in his hand and he fumbled.” She says that it is clear now councillors will be leading, not the mayor. “Toronto’s democratic deficit ends today.”

Coward Rob Ford Leaves Chaos In His Wake

Today, Toronto mayor Rob Ford bolted and ran when he saw that he could not win the day. He left a fractured and confused City Hall in his wake.

This mayor is finding by not working to gain a consensus, by not being willing to listen to reason, by not being interested in leading, that he is creating a great amount of chaos and confusion and is wasting more time and money than any Toronto mayor before him. 

What will it take for him to grow up and be a real mayor? I seriously don't think he can. 

Now, all you people who voted for Ford - next time, please THINK before you vote. Do a bit of research. Make an informed decision. It was sooooooooooooo obvious that Ford, when he became mayor, would be the disaster that he has turned out to be. We are still thanking you people for all these problems of the past 1.5 years. Thanks.

See: Toronto Star: Toronto's Mayor Rob Ford Shuts Down Transit Debate.

Rob Ford's Pattern of Knowingly Disobeying Conflict of Interest Rules

Ford's pattern of disobeying conflict of interest rules at City Hall goes back to 2005. This list further proves that there is no way Ford can claim ignorance in the new case against him that could get him kicked out of the mayor's position.

See The Toronto Star: Ford's conflicts of interest date back to 2005

Mayor Ford On Trial. Could Be Removed From Office

Rob Ford is to stand trial for conflict of interest for speaking on and voting on a motion in council that would personally benefit him financially. If the judge is convinced that Ford wilfully broke the rules, then Ford will be removed from office, and the judge would then also decide if he will also be banned from running for public office again (and for how long).

It will be very difficult for Ford to claim that he made a mistake, that he wasn't aware of the rule, because he has been in public office as a councillor for many years, AND he has previously recused himself when he knew there was a conflict of interest.

Clayton Ruby is the lawyer arguing the case against Ford in Superior Court on March 23, 2012.

For more details, see the article in The Toronto Star: Could Mayor Rob Ford Be Removed From Office Over A Conflict Of Interest?
and in the National Post article,
and at the CBC
BlogTO
and a lot of details here at OpenFile
See also:
The Grid: The Case To Remove The Mayor: Another Instance of Anti-Ford Bias?
I am neither a judge nor a lawyer, but the basic, so-far undisputed facts of this case suggest that the mayor had an obvious financial interest, and that he debated and voted on the matter anyway—voting to excuse himself from $3,150 in fines.

It would appear that the only defence that could save Rob Ford from being removed as mayor is that he, after 10 years as a councillor and one year as mayor, did not recognize that he had a financial interest in a vote to save himself $3,150 in penalties. And further, that none of the people he pays to advise him, as the head of Canada’s largest municipality and the CEO of the $9 billion corporation of the city of Toronto, could recognize this interest either.

So the pro-Ford line on this—the balancing piece of information that could save his job as mayor—is that we elected a man too stupid to understand the most obvious element of one of our primary anti-corruption laws and, further, that he staffs his office with people who cannot understand them either.


All Fired Up In the Big Smoke: His Own Worst Enemy
He knowingly flouted the rules. He ignored the council sanctions brought down on him for flouting the rules. He then participated and voted to overturn those sanctions. It is the last thing that has got him into his current troubles. It’s always the last thing that gets you into trouble.

Like I said, I won’t give his rabid supporters the satisfaction of hoping this is a firing offense. But please, stop defending the mayor as some sort of lightning rod for scurrilous attacks, a well-intentioned politician never putting his own career first, and only ever looking out for the little guy. Personal gain isn’t always about money directly into your pocket. For Rob Ford, it was never about the money but about the image. An image he burnished while skirting rules, thumbing his nose at colleagues and the Integrity Commissioner and, once elected mayor, actively participating in avoiding facing the consequences of his actions.

Nobody’s demanding perfection in our politicians but at some point of time there has to be accountability. That time came yesterday for Mayor Rob Ford.
 

Rob Ford's Lackey, Gordon Chong, Rips Off Consultants for $80,000

Gordon Chong mismanaged his funds and ripped off consultants to the tune of  $80,000 (hired them knowing there was no money to pay them).
Now the city will be on the hook to bail out his mismanagement. Guess who picked Chong to do this? Yep, Rob Ford, mathematician extraordinaire.
THANKS ROB FORD!

The Toronto Star paints up the title all nice-like, but knowingly ripping someone off is still ripping someone off. And doing it while in a position of trust (Chong was trusted with the funds on behalf of the City of Toronto) is worse.
TTC Subway study ran out of money, Gordon Chong and consultants still owed more than $100,000

Rob Ford's Gravy Train total on this one: $260,000
(Amount over the original amount reported April 7, 2012: $60,000 + $100,000 = $160,000)

UPDATE
Ironically, the big picture here is that the agency set up with Chong heading it to figure out a way to fund a Sheppard subway line went broke. If they can't figure out how to find funding to figure this out, how do they expect to find funding for the subway ?! LOL (thanks Nick, in the comments on this story at All Fired Up In The Big Smoke)

Toronto City Council Takes Over Governance From Lame Duck Mayor Ford

"The questions several councillors are now asking is, “Is this the new normal? Must we rescue every issue from the administration’s incompetence?”¹- The answer, of course, is, unfortunately YES.

Before the election, when it looked like Ford would win, I was hoping that council would stop Ford's nonsense from the beginning. It has taken council - well, the so-called "Mushy Middle" of the council - all this time to finally see the light and vote for reason. And a few on the right have also seen the light. It will be strange to have the city governance exclude a (useless and foolish) mayor over the next couple of years. This is a hard lesson for Torontonians (who voted for Ford) and for councillors (who originally supported Ford until they began to see reason) which has set transit, among other things, back a year and a half.
The lesson of course is: pay attention and think about your choices before you leap - your choices will have consequences for years to come, not only for you, but for everyone else in Toronto.

NEW TTC BOARD ELECTED! The 5 Ford supporters who fired Webster are GONE!
New board:
Maria Augimeri, Raymond Cho, Josh Colle, Glenn De Baeremaeker, Peter Milczyn, John Parker, and Karen Stintz.
Stintz was also re-elected as chair in a vote that followed. Stintz got 24 votes to Milczyn's 19 votes (2 members were absent).

This is another huge defeat for the mayor, and another gain for Torontonians and city council. Basically, city council not only has re-set the agenda for transit, but has taken control of the TTC board and replaced it with a more diverse and intelligent set of people (people who who think about their constituents and don't just follow the mayor's lead).

Details on the motions and votes that led to council taking control of the TTC board way from the mayor at The Torontoist.²

Yes people, this is our mayor (L) and his brother (R).
383,501 people have some explaining to do.

¹  Toronto Star: James: Mayor Ford Whiffs, Swinging for Subway Fences

² The Torontoist: Debating The Future of The TTC Board

Picture from NOW magazine: http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=185504

Respect for the Taxpayer from Rob Ford - NOT!

Rob Ford got his lackeys on the TTC council to fire Gary Webster, the Chief General Manager the other day for doing his job well. They fired him without just cause. As a result, the City (that's you, taxpayers), will be on the hook for $560,000.00 for Gary's severance package. They could have let him stay for one more year until his retirement and it would have cost far less.

Now, we have no one at the helm of the TTC during a time when we need a very experienced and competent person there.

Rob Ford's Gravy Train amount = $560,000.00