Thursday, 31 October 2013

Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”

News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Canadian Support For Abolishing The Senate Is Gaining Ground - UPDATED


I just got the EKOS poll results from Oct. 29, 2013
These poll results show an even stronger support for Senate abolition
53.8% of Canadians support abolishing the Senate.

Regional support
Provinces that support abolition with  over 50% support: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec (Sask and Que are the highest with 68% and 67% support)

Provinces that support abolition with less than 50% Atlantic, Manitoba, and Ontario

Highest support (52% to 59%) are those older than 35 years
Lowest support is amongst those younger than 35 years (49%)

Party Support
Highest support is amongst Conservative, NDP and Bloc supporters (62% to 74%)
Lowest support is amongst the Liberal (40.6%) and Green (49.4%) supporters


As Canadians have become more aware of the Senate through exposure to the Senate Scandal, they are, more and more, realizing that there is no place in a modern democracy for a Senate.

More people favour making the Senate an elected body, but the support for abolition is gaining ground and has almost caught up.

6 years ago, the difference was 31%, today it is only 6%

Favour an elected Senate: 57%(2007), 42%(Feb. 2013), 49%(June 2013), 49%(Oct. 2013)

Favour abolishing the Senate: 26%(2007), 36%(Feb. 2013), 41%(June 2013), 43%(Oct. 2013)


In the latest results from the Ipsos-Reid poll (Oct. 2013) the regions who favour abolition over reform the most are Quebec (54% to 39%) and Atlantic (54% to 45%). All other regions favour reform over abolition with Ontario and BC favouring it the most (53%).

It will be interesting to see where these numbers are in 2015. It will take the support of the majority of provinces to make any major change regarding the Senate (including abolishing it).

For more information on abolishing the Senate:
Abolish The Senate: A Sober Second Look At Canadian Democracy - Facts

The NDP's Roll Up The Red Carpet campaign

Democracy Watch's Shut Down The Senate campaign

NDP Democratic and Parliamentary Reform Critic Craig Scott - Abolish The Senate

News and opinion:
Abolish the Senate say local MPs

Idea of Senate Abolition Gaining Momentum Inside Conservative Caucus

OpEd: Senate Abolition The Best Course

Manitoba Joins Move To Abolish The Senate

If Canadian's Vote To Abolish The Senate, Politicians Must Listen

Canadian Senate Abolition Idea Gaining Momentum Among Tories

Abolish the Senate Instead Of Trying To Reform It

Majority of Province's Residents Prefer To See Senate Abolished, Says Poll

Monday, 21 October 2013

Thomas Mulcair speaks to the CUPE 50th Anniversary National Convention