Wednesday, 8 July 2015

NDP Clearest Alternative, Globe & Mail Is Loathe To Admit

The G&M must be loathe to report stories like this. But the NDP are so much in the lead and seen as the party of clear change, that they have no choice. But, that doesn't stop them from trying to tilt the story in the Conservatives favour. Let's take a look at where the G&M has problems writing a news story:

Canadians will be asked to choose between political stability and renewal - G&M states here that we currently have political stability. Funny, since when do these mean political stability?:
- subverting democracy (Bill C-51, Bill C-377, Bill C-23 among many others, cheating in elections)
- racking up the most debt of a Canadian government ever,
- running a deficit for most of their time
- balancing a budget only by looting from the EI fund
- ignoring the urgent issue of Climate Change
- focusing our economy on the oil extraction industry to the great detriment to the manufacturing industry.
-  corruption and cronyism
- warmongering instead of peacekeeping
- and the list goes on.
A more accurate line would be:
Canadians will be asked to choose between gross fiscal mismanagement & the brink of fascism, and stability & democracy.

Pollster Nik Nanos said the NDP has staked out the clearest policy positions in opposition to the Conservative Party, while the Liberals have a more nuanced approach.
- Okay, these were probably Nik Nanos' words but using "nuanced" here is a nice way of saying that the Liberal policy positions are mainly just like the Conservatives, except for when they try to copy some of the NDP policies to try to steal their support. History shows that time and again, the Liberals, whose policies mirror (especially more recently) those of the Conservatives, always campaign on the left only to toss these left leaning policies to the wind if they win the election.

The NDP has been working hard to reassure Canadians its economic policies would be largely in line with those of the current government. The biggest change proposed by the NDP is to increase corporate taxes, although party officials said the planned rate, to be revealed in coming months, would be “reasonable.”
-  Actually, the NDP has been working hard to show Canadians that its economic policies would NOT be in line with those of the current government. The NDP plans to NOT waste money on more and bigger prisons (not needed as the crime rate has been steadily dropping), unnecessary/problematic/costly jets, corporate welfare, unaccountable missing $3.1 billion, and many other porky Conservative pies. NDP governments, on average, have a much better fiscal record than Conservatives.

Party officials said the NDP is looking for candidates with an economic background who could serve as ministers of finance or industry. The recent upswing in the polls could make that easier.
- It may well be that the NDP is looking for more candidates with economic backgrounds, but they already have a number of MPs with economic backgrounds. And unmentioned here is Erin Weir, who has been suggested as a potential Finance Minister.

While both parties want to replace the Conservatives, their partisans have been at one another’s throats. Last week, the Liberals suggested Mr. Mulcair’s flirtation with the Conservatives in 2007 undermined the NDP’s promises to clean up the environment.
- The G&M fails to mention that this has been debunked a number of times, including recently by some high-up Conservatives.
- And "undermined the NDP's promises to clean up the environment"? The facts on this story actually result in boosting the NDP's seriousness about cleaning up the environment. 

I'll leave you with a few choice comments made after the G&M news item (these are all in the top ten most liked comments, and from the G&M readers no less!):

Mr Leblanc's first paragraph is flawed, or the poll was flawed. The choice is not between "change" and "stability." It is between "change" and "no change." I certainly would neither call what our economy had gone through in the last year as anything approaching stability, nor would I call the government actions in domestic and foreign policy as stabilizing.

My wife and I are in the over 65 age group and for the first time ever will be voting NDP as we have seen never ending corruption with the Libs and Cons for way too many years. Many of our friends have also decided to vote NDP as it is clearly time to send a big message to all elected officials, the voters are fed up and will not take it anymore and you will be forced to understand this come the election.

choose between political stability and renewal,..........
Nope......It's choosing between getting a country back to sanity...or carrying on with the most corrupt, crooked, manipulative crew of PROVEN liars and cheats This country has ever been controlled by .....A government rife with contempt, disrespect.....There have never been so many from a political party involved in fraud, lies, election proceedings, and criminal investigations...ever.....
Duffy, Wallin, Brazeau, Porter, Grestein, Stewart/Olsen, Wright, LeBreton, PMO staff
A LONG list of crooks......
It's about voting OUT crooks and taking the nation back from the brink of fascism!!

the first sentence claims there is a choice between change and political stability. Huh? If the government loses an election in Canada, that does not mean there is less stability.
By the Globe's definition of that term..I guess North Korea has the most political stability of all.

Thursday, 25 June 2015

NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties.

The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The other polls were more recently in the field, both ending June 23rd, and show a trend of the NDP being more in the lead.

The table below shows the NDP rise from April to now (comparing the April average to the average of the most recent 3 polls mentioned above).

Region April June (latest 3) change
Atl 19% 26% 7%
QC 26% 38% 12%
ON 19% 30% 11%
MB&SK 16% 34% 18%
AB 23% 31% 8%
BC 21% 41% 20%

The NDP has benefited from the Alberta election of the NDP, the backlash to the Liberal party support of Bill C-51, as well as the growing realization Canadians have that Thomas Mulcair and the NDP are better prepared to take on the job of governing than Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party and now seem to be the best bet to knock out the Harper government. And, I would say that the policies and records of the parties are definitely having an effect here too.

3 key provinces where the NDP must do well are Quebec, Ontario and BC (the provinces with the most seats).

In Quebec, looking at the polls right after Gilles Duceppe took over the leadership of the Bloc, there was a bump for the Bloc, mainly at the expense of the NDP. But the most recent polls show the numbers resetting slightly, going back in favour of the NDP. I would say the NDP has a stable lead in Quebec and will most likely at least get about the same number of seats there as last election, if not more.

In BC, the NDP has continued to rise in the polls and now commands a very strong lead.

In Ontario, we still have pretty much a 3-way tie. The NDP support has come up 11% and stayed there. If the NDP can break into a significant lead in Ontario, like in Quebec and BC, they will definitely be in the running for a majority government in October.

The latest seat projections show a definite NDP minority.

An aggregate of the latest Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid and EKOS polls projects:
NDP 130 seats
Conservatives 119 seats
Liberals 86 seats
Bloc 2 seats
Green 1 seat

And Forum, from their latest poll ending June 23rd, projects:
NDP 149 seats
Conservatives 116 seats
Liberals 65 seats
Bloc 3 seats
Green 1 seat

If things stay about how they are now, we will see an NDP minority government. But, I think if the NDP make more gains in Ontario, we will see an NDP majority government.

Wednesday, 10 June 2015

Question The Nature Of Your Orders - new Facebook page.

New Facebook Page.
Instead of continuing to fill up my personal Facebook page with political posts, I've created a new paged called Question The Nature Of Your Orders. Anyone wishing to continue to follow my posts (like I was posting to my Facebook page) can Like (and then choose to Get Notifications) at this new page. I will continue to post things here on Driving The Porcelain Bus too as I have been.

Descriptions for the Question The Nature Of Your Orders:

Short: How about instead of calling it "politics", we call it "your life"? Then will you be interested?

Long: Political views and news from a Canadian social-democratic perspective, focused mainly on Canadian issues, but also including issues around the world. Also, bringing attention to regressive political policies, repression, and injustice.

This is my political soapbox, but I welcome discussion, and people are welcome to share anything on this page.

Policy on trolls: They will be banned.

Friday, 5 June 2015

A Sleeping Ontario Awakens

EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.)

Probably the most significant number in the latest poll is the position of the NDP in Ontario. It has been pretty obvious that the NDP are going to hold onto their seats in Quebec. And, they have remained steadily competitive in BC. The key now to the election lies in vote-rich Ontario. For the NDP to get enough seats to form the next government, they need to get a lot of seats in Ontario. But, the NDP has not done well yet in Ontario. Until now...

If you look at the latest and previous recent Ekos polls, you see the NDP has come from a distant 3rd to now being tied in first with the Conservatives in Ontario. The trend is up for the NDP in most of the provinces. But pulling into first place in Ontario means a lot more seats. And, a lot more seats for the NDP could spell an NDP majority government.

In the last election, the NDP reached about 27% support in Ontario. Currently, they are 4 points above this and the trend seems like their support will continue to rise in Ontario. I'm sure that besides the Harper government history, the federal Liberals supporting Bill C-51 (among many other Conservative policies/bills), and the Wynne government souring (looking even more conservative than the Harris PCs now) are giving a boost to the NDP. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next while in Ontario. I believe this is where the votes will decide between a Harper minority government and an NDP minority or majority government.

Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.

Today, Ipsos came out with this headline:

Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally 

Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compared with the previous Ipsos polls, this is pretty misleading. It would imply that the NDP are not doing well or have not made any significant gains in the West.

When we look at the Ipsos numbers, we can see that the NDP have made significant gains, especially in Alberta in the West.

NDP support as shown in Ipsos polls Feb-May 2015

Feb 2015. Apr 2015. May 2015. Overall change Apr to May change
BC 21% 32% 34% +13 +2
AB 16% 23% 31% +15 +8
SK & MB 27% 21% 23% -4 +2
ON 23% 19% 24% +1 +5
QC 27% 34% 41% +14 +7
Atlantic 26% 19% 21% -5 +2

It looks to me like the Orange wave has hit not only Quebec, where the NDP has gained 14 points since February, but also BC and Alberta, where they gained 13 and 15 points since February.
Even comparing April to May, we see that NDP support still rose significantly in Alberta. The rise in NDP support, as you can see by these numbers, has been greatest in Alberta (15 points since Feb, 8 points since April), even greater than in Quebec.

A more accurate headline might be: 3 Main Parties All Tied As The NDP Makes Significant Gains At The Expense Of Both The Liberals And Conservatives. 

Overall, from Feb. to May, the NDP rose 7%, while the Conservatives dropped 2% and the Liberals dropped 3%

By themselves, these overall changes may not seem too significant. But, the fact that the NDP is picking up support from both Conservatives and Liberals spells trouble for these 2 parties.

Sunday, 31 May 2015

Who Cares About The Youth Vote? Certainly Not The Corporate Media.

Regarding this article in the Globe & Mail: Dear Young People: Not Voting? No One Cares.
Politicians need to take a chance and talk to youth and aim policies toward them too. And, at the same time, youth need to start talking to the politicians.

However, one of the problems, unmentioned here, is the corporate media itself, a willing participant in discouraging youth to get involved. This article and other media articles about the youth vote and youth apathy are missing the policies here and there aimed at youth, and at the youth speaking up for themselves. Protests and rallies are usually mainly populated by young adults. They ARE stepping up to be heard. But corporate-media and the corporate parties (Conservatives and Liberals) want to play down disgruntled youth raising their voices as this threatens their cozy security. Just check out the headline! - Dear young people: Not voting? No one cares (not said here is: Especially us, the corporate media). Change is not a friend of the establishment, so the establishment, including the propaganda machine (the mainstream media) of the corporate establishment, is not a friend of those who would bring about change - the youth. The vicious circle here would more likely disappear if it were not for the complicity of the media in maintaining that circle.

Friday, 15 May 2015

NDP Support Pre-election 2011 Compared to 2015

Here is an interesting comparison between the NDP support 8-5 months before the election in 2011 compared to the same period now in 2015.

Back in 2011, support was in the mid teens at this time and didn't start to rise until closer to the election. But in 2015, support was in the upper teens and has gradually risen (with a jump at the end of the period) to close to 30 in the same period.

So, the NDP support this time around is much stronger, double what it was at the same time before the previous election. They are well situated to continue to grow to a position to form the government.

With the rise of the provincial NDP in Alberta, and with the federal Liberals not looking very progressive, especially with their vote to support bill C-51, progressive voters are looking more and more to the NDP as the party to support to beat the Harper Conservatives.

The following table shows a comparison of the regional support over these time periods (numbers taken from EKOS polls)



Sep. 2010 Dec. 2010 change Feb. 2015 May 2015 change
BC 31 22 -9 22 31 +9
AB 13 6 -7 10 25 +15
SK (SK&MB 2011) 16 19 +3 23 28 +5

16 20 +4
ON 15 16 +1 15 27 +12
QC 9 11 +2 23 36 +13
Atlantic 15 13 -2 18 24 +6

In the latest EKOS poll, May 6-12, 2015, The NDP are leading in Quebec and BC, are in second place in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Atlantic, and are now only 6 points off the lead in Ontario. Support in Ontario is vital for the NDP to really increase their seat total. And the gains in Alberta, which until now were totally unexpected, will be a bonus.


A Forum poll has just come out with similar numbers as the EKOS poll - Con and Lib 31% each and NDP at 30%.