NDP Clearest Alternative, Globe & Mail Is Loathe To Admit

The G&M must be loathe to report stories like this. But the NDP are so much in the lead and seen as the party of clear change, that they have no choice. But, that doesn't stop them from trying to tilt the story in the Conservatives favour. Let's take a look at where the G&M has problems writing a news story:

Canadians will be asked to choose between political stability and renewal - G&M states here that we currently have political stability. Funny, since when do these mean political stability?:
- subverting democracy (Bill C-51, Bill C-377, Bill C-23 among many others, cheating in elections)
- racking up the most debt of a Canadian government ever,
- running a deficit for most of their time
- balancing a budget only by looting from the EI fund
- ignoring the urgent issue of Climate Change
- focusing our economy on the oil extraction industry to the great detriment to the manufacturing industry.
-  corruption and cronyism
- warmongering instead of peacekeeping
- and the list goes on.
A more accurate line would be:
Canadians will be asked to choose between gross fiscal mismanagement & the brink of fascism, and stability & democracy.


Pollster Nik Nanos said the NDP has staked out the clearest policy positions in opposition to the Conservative Party, while the Liberals have a more nuanced approach.
- Okay, these were probably Nik Nanos' words but using "nuanced" here is a nice way of saying that the Liberal policy positions are mainly just like the Conservatives, except for when they try to copy some of the NDP policies to try to steal their support. History shows that time and again, the Liberals, whose policies mirror (especially more recently) those of the Conservatives, always campaign on the left only to toss these left leaning policies to the wind if they win the election.

The NDP has been working hard to reassure Canadians its economic policies would be largely in line with those of the current government. The biggest change proposed by the NDP is to increase corporate taxes, although party officials said the planned rate, to be revealed in coming months, would be “reasonable.”
-  Actually, the NDP has been working hard to show Canadians that its economic policies would NOT be in line with those of the current government. The NDP plans to NOT waste money on more and bigger prisons (not needed as the crime rate has been steadily dropping), unnecessary/problematic/costly jets, corporate welfare, unaccountable missing $3.1 billion, and many other porky Conservative pies. NDP governments, on average, have a much better fiscal record than Conservatives.

Party officials said the NDP is looking for candidates with an economic background who could serve as ministers of finance or industry. The recent upswing in the polls could make that easier.
- It may well be that the NDP is looking for more candidates with economic backgrounds, but they already have a number of MPs with economic backgrounds. And unmentioned here is Erin Weir, who has been suggested as a potential Finance Minister.

While both parties want to replace the Conservatives, their partisans have been at one another’s throats. Last week, the Liberals suggested Mr. Mulcair’s flirtation with the Conservatives in 2007 undermined the NDP’s promises to clean up the environment.
- The G&M fails to mention that this has been debunked a number of times, including recently by some high-up Conservatives.
- And "undermined the NDP's promises to clean up the environment"? The facts on this story actually result in boosting the NDP's seriousness about cleaning up the environment. 


I'll leave you with a few choice comments made after the G&M news item (these are all in the top ten most liked comments, and from the G&M readers no less!):

Mr Leblanc's first paragraph is flawed, or the poll was flawed. The choice is not between "change" and "stability." It is between "change" and "no change." I certainly would neither call what our economy had gone through in the last year as anything approaching stability, nor would I call the government actions in domestic and foreign policy as stabilizing.



My wife and I are in the over 65 age group and for the first time ever will be voting NDP as we have seen never ending corruption with the Libs and Cons for way too many years. Many of our friends have also decided to vote NDP as it is clearly time to send a big message to all elected officials, the voters are fed up and will not take it anymore and you will be forced to understand this come the election.



choose between political stability and renewal,..........
Nope......It's choosing between getting a country back to sanity...or carrying on with the most corrupt, crooked, manipulative crew of PROVEN liars and cheats This country has ever been controlled by .....A government rife with contempt, disrespect.....There have never been so many from a political party involved in fraud, lies, election irregularities...legal proceedings, and criminal investigations...ever.....
Duffy, Wallin, Brazeau, Porter, Grestein, Stewart/Olsen, Wright, LeBreton, PMO staff
A LONG list of crooks......
It's about voting OUT crooks and taking the nation back from the brink of fascism!!


the first sentence claims there is a choice between change and political stability. Huh? If the government loses an election in Canada, that does not mean there is less stability.
By the Globe's definition of that term..I guess North Korea has the most political stability of all.

NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties.

The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The other polls were more recently in the field, both ending June 23rd, and show a trend of the NDP being more in the lead.

The table below shows the NDP rise from April to now (comparing the April average to the average of the most recent 3 polls mentioned above).

Region	April	June (latest 3)	change
Atl	19%	26%	7%
QC	26%	38%	12%
ON	19%	30%	11%
MB&SK	16%	34%	18%
AB	23%	31%	8%
BC	21%	41%	20%

The NDP has benefited from the Alberta election of the NDP, the backlash to the Liberal party support of Bill C-51, as well as the growing realization Canadians have that Thomas Mulcair and the NDP are better prepared to take on the job of governing than Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party and now seem to be the best bet to knock out the Harper government. And, I would say that the policies and records of the parties are definitely having an effect here too.

3 key provinces where the NDP must do well are Quebec, Ontario and BC (the provinces with the most seats).

In Quebec, looking at the polls right after Gilles Duceppe took over the leadership of the Bloc, there was a bump for the Bloc, mainly at the expense of the NDP. But the most recent polls show the numbers resetting slightly, going back in favour of the NDP. I would say the NDP has a stable lead in Quebec and will most likely at least get about the same number of seats there as last election, if not more.

In BC, the NDP has continued to rise in the polls and now commands a very strong lead.

In Ontario, we still have pretty much a 3-way tie. The NDP support has come up 11% and stayed there. If the NDP can break into a significant lead in Ontario, like in Quebec and BC, they will definitely be in the running for a majority government in October.

The latest seat projections show a definite NDP minority.

An aggregate of the latest Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid and EKOS polls projects:
NDP 130 seats
Conservatives 119 seats
Liberals 86 seats
Bloc 2 seats
Green 1 seat

And Forum, from their latest poll ending June 23rd, projects:
NDP 149 seats
Conservatives 116 seats
Liberals 65 seats
Bloc 3 seats
Green 1 seat

If things stay about how they are now, we will see an NDP minority government. But, I think if the NDP make more gains in Ontario, we will see an NDP majority government.

A Sleeping Ontario Awakens

EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.)

Probably the most significant number in the latest poll is the position of the NDP in Ontario. It has been pretty obvious that the NDP are going to hold onto their seats in Quebec. And, they have remained steadily competitive in BC. The key now to the election lies in vote-rich Ontario. For the NDP to get enough seats to form the next government, they need to get a lot of seats in Ontario. But, the NDP has not done well yet in Ontario. Until now...

If you look at the latest and previous recent Ekos polls, you see the NDP has come from a distant 3rd to now being tied in first with the Conservatives in Ontario. The trend is up for the NDP in most of the provinces. But pulling into first place in Ontario means a lot more seats. And, a lot more seats for the NDP could spell an NDP majority government.

In the last election, the NDP reached about 27% support in Ontario. Currently, they are 4 points above this and the trend seems like their support will continue to rise in Ontario. I'm sure that besides the Harper government history, the federal Liberals supporting Bill C-51 (among many other Conservative policies/bills), and the Wynne government souring (looking even more conservative than the Harris PCs now) are giving a boost to the NDP. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next while in Ontario. I believe this is where the votes will decide between a Harper minority government and an NDP minority or majority government.

NDP Support Pre-election 2011 Compared to 2015

Here is an interesting comparison between the NDP support 8-5 months before the election in 2011 compared to the same period now in 2015.

Back in 2011, support was in the mid teens at this time and didn't start to rise until closer to the election. But in 2015, support was in the upper teens and has gradually risen (with a jump at the end of the period) to close to 30 in the same period.

So, the NDP support this time around is much stronger, double what it was at the same time before the previous election. They are well situated to continue to grow to a position to form the government.

With the rise of the provincial NDP in Alberta, and with the federal Liberals not looking very progressive, especially with their vote to support bill C-51, progressive voters are looking more and more to the NDP as the party to support to beat the Harper Conservatives.

The following table shows a comparison of the regional support over these time periods (numbers taken from EKOS polls)

	2011			2015
	Sep. 2010	Dec. 2010	change	Feb. 2015	May 2015	change
BC	31	22	-9	22	31	+9
AB	13	6	-7	10	25	+15
SK (SK&MB 2011)	16	19	+3	23	28	+5
MB				16	20	+4
ON	15	16	+1	15	27	+12
QC	9	11	+2	23	36	+13
Atlantic	15	13	-2	18	24	+6

In the latest EKOS poll, May 6-12, 2015, The NDP are leading in Quebec and BC, are in second place in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Atlantic, and are now only 6 points off the lead in Ontario. Support in Ontario is vital for the NDP to really increase their seat total. And the gains in Alberta, which until now were totally unexpected, will be a bonus.

UPDATE

A Forum poll has just come out with similar numbers as the EKOS poll - Con and Lib 31% each and NDP at 30%.

Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”


News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

Thomas Mulcair speaks to the CUPE 50th Anniversary National Convention

http://new.livestream.com/cupescfp/convention-2013/videos/32856759

Going To The Wall In Defense Of Mulcair

Great post by Erin Weir - The Progressive Economics Forum:

"Mulcair has articulated a balanced approach to resource development that would generate more public revenue, a more competitive exchange rate, and more manufacturing jobs. Saskatchewan is well positioned to help implement and benefit from this approach by raising provincial resource royalties."

Read the whole post here.

So much of the MSM are focusing only on the Conservative party talking points - oh, Mulcair and the NDP are against the West and against developing oil and resources. This is so much hogwash. Mulcair and the NDP are FOR development and FOR the West. What they would like to see is a more balanced approach that would improve the environmental situation around extracting resources, as well as a more balanced approach regarding royalties which would bring in more money for Canada. All of this would help Canadian manufacturing across Canada, as well as create a lot more Canadian jobs.

Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

Party - March 30 - April 25 - change

NDP - 34% - 36% - +2%

Con - 36% - 33% - -3%
Lib  - 19% - 22% - +3%
Green - 5% - 2% - -3%
Bloc - 5% - 6% - +1%


Leader Popularity - March 30 - April 25 - change

Mulcair - 32% - 41% - +9%

Harper - 34% - 34% - no change
Rae     - 36% - 35% - -1%

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib  - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1


Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

Party - Feb. 29 - April 18 - change
NDP - 25% - 32% - +7%
Con  - 36% - 35% - -1%
Lib   - 30% - 23% - -7%
Green - 3% - 4% - +1%
Bloc   - 5% - 4% - -1%

Leader - Feb 29 - April 18 - change

Leader Trustworthiness
Turmel - 7% - Mulcair - 20% - +13%

Harper - 32% - 20% - -12%

Rae - 20% - 14% - -6%

Leader Competence
Turmel - 6% - Mulcair - 17% - +11%

Harper - 38% - 24% - -14%

Rae - 19% - 12% - -7%

Leader Vision for Canada
Turmel - 8% - Mulcair - 17% - +9%

Harper - 33% - 22% - -11%

Rae - 16% - 11% - -5%

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

Forum Research latest poll results
Nanos latest poll results
News articles on these results from The Toronto Star, CBC, The National Post, The Globe & Mail.

New NDP Ad Released

See the ad here:

Toronto Star: New NDP TV ad emphasizes continuity over change
“Throughout his public life, Tom Mulcair has a proven track-record of fighting for people,” said NDP National Director Chantal Vallerand in a statement. “These ads will help reach out to all those Canadians who have been abandoned by the Conservative government. Our message is quite simply that unlike Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair will fight for you.”

4th Poll In A Month Has NDP Tied With Conservatives

A Léger Marketing poll for The Gazette and Le Devoir April 2-4 shows the following support among decided voters:
NDP 33%
Conservatives 32%
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
[Bloc not listed but most likely about 6-7% nationally]


In Quebec:
NDP 47% (up 4 points since the election - up 19 points here since Thomas Mulcair was elected NDP leader)
Bloc 29%
Conservatives 10%
Liberals 10%

Which of the party leaders would make the best Prime Minister?:

don't know/refused 38%

Stephen Harper 25%

Thomas Mulcair 20%

Bob Rae 12%

Elizabeth May 5%

This is the 4th poll in a month that has the NDP and Conservatives tied (See here and here).

From the Montreal Gazette article:

“We see that support for the Conservatives is ... down nearly eight points since the last election,” he said. “So it’s a fairly significant drop for them.”

The Conservatives’ tumble began a couple of months ago, he said, adding the timing coincides with public discontent over such things as revelations of fraudulent robocalls pretending to come from Elections Canada and, just this week, revelations of a major cost overrun in the F-35 fighter jet program that was kept quiet before the last election.

...

The NDP finds its strongest support in three regions: Quebec, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia. 

...

Not only has support for the Conservatives dropped nationally since last year’s election victory, the Léger poll also finds that support for the NDP in Quebec has rebounded “in spectacular fashion” since January – beyond even its 2011 election results – since the party chose Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair as its new leader in late March. Support for the party has shot up 19 points since January, Dallaire said.

The NDP scores 47 per cent of support in Quebec in this poll, which is higher than the party’s 42.9 per cent share of the vote in the province in the 2011 election. 

...

NDP Tied With Conservatives, And, Mulcair Doing Well

Two poll results from March (early March and then just after Mulcair won the leadership of the NDP), by Environics in early March and by Forum in late March, show the NDP tied with the Conservatives.

The Environics poll from March 6-18, 2012, had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30% each (a drop of 10% for the Conservatives). The Liberals were at 20%

The Forum poll from March 26-27, 2012 - just after Mulcair's first couple of days in Parliament as party leader , had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 35% each and the Liberals at 19% (a drop of 3% for the Conservatives, a rise of 7% for the NDP and a drop of 6% for the Liberals,  since the last Forum poll a month ago).

More details on the recent Forum poll with comparisons to their previous poll:

Most effective opposition:
NDP 40% (up from 32%)
Liberals 22% (down from 30%)

Approval rating of each leader (virtually tied):
Stephen Harper 34%
Thomas Mulcair 32%
Bob Rae 32%

Disapproval rating of each leader:
Thomas Mulcair: 22%
Bob Rae: 41%
Stephen Harper: 58%


26% say they are more likely to vote for the NDP now that Thomas Mulcair is the party leader. This includes 23% Liberal supporters, 8% Green party supporters, 40% Bloc supporters and 5% Conservative supporters.

Seat projections from this poll compared to seats at election time:
Conservatives: 151 (155)
NDP: 120 (103)
Liberals 25 (34)
Bloc 11 (4)
Green 1 (1)
This would result in a minority Conservative government.

Support for joint nomination meetings is dropping compared to a month ago:
NDP supporters 51% (59%)
Liberal supporters 50% (60%)

The NDP are leading in Quebec, The Prairies, and in BC.

Mulcair's Views Very Similar To Layton's

Many NDP members were worried during the leadership campaign that Mulcair had some extreme views on some issues. Not so. Here is a great piece by Leftist Jab touching on a couple of these issues. Read that post for the details.

Some people feared that Mulcair would break from working with some key NDP members who had differing opinions. But, during Mulcair's interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge, shortly after the election, Mulcair said that he was proud and glad to see that Libby Davies got up on stage with him when he made his acceptance speech, and that he said he would like her to continue to be the deputy party leader. He also said that he will continue to work with Brian Topp. 

And, regarding the speculation that a new leader could drastically change the core policies of the NDP - rubbish. During the convention, Peter Mansbridge spoke with Olivia Chow and Stephen Lewis. Both of them reminded Peter of what all NDP members should know: that the leader does not make the policy, the party members set the policy at their conventions and the party and leader follow those policies. Thomas Mulcair has shown time and again that his core values and the NDP's core values are one in the same. 

In conclusion, Leftist Jab writes:

There is no break with tradition and I think the most revealing aspect of his approach to leadership was when Peter Mansbridge read out the talking points that the Conservative Party of Canada had about him. He dismissed them ably and when asked whether he would take out advertisement to counter them, he said he wasn't initially inclined to do so but he'd discuss it with his caucus and the NDP strategists if this was a necessity.

It wasn't about him and he'd much rather put the spotlight on the many missteps by the Conservatives than make his leadership a personal pissing contest between him and Stephen Harper. However, if the Conservatives would be able to define him as they have previous Opposition Leaders, he would do what's necessary to bring back the focus on policy issues.

An even-handed and thoughtful approach.

I'm confident that Thomas Mulcair will win the confidence of all New Democrats with his leadership and hopeful he'll do likewise with the majority of Canadians come 2015.

Thomas Mulcair Is The New NDP Leader

NDP members have elected Thomas Mulcair as the new NDP leader. It came down to a 4th ballot - between Thomas Mulcair and Brian Topp. On the 3rd ballot, Mulcair had 43.8%, Topp 31.6% and Cullen 24.6%. Throughout the convention, Mulcair steadily and strongly increased his support and endorsements. The final vote was
Thomas Mulcair 57.2%
Brian Topp 42.8%

Congratulations to Thomas Muclair and I look forward to the NDP diving into the work of fighting for Canadians.

Thomas Mulcair for NDP Leader

Years ago, when I joined the NDP to vote for Jack Layton, I did so because I saw a chance to elect an exceptional leader. I saw the chance to vote for someone who I knew had the ability to reach out to people who didn't vote NDP and convince them that the NDP was the party to best represent and fight for their values. I saw the chance to choose a leader who I knew was good at bringing people together to work toward a common goal. I saw the chance to select a leader who was charismatic, who was great at debating and public speaking in both our official languages. I saw the chance to elect a leader who could take the message of the NDP to all parts of Canada and gain more support.

And, my instincts were right on the money. Jack took the party to the greatest heights ever. Every election he increased the party support and seats in parliament. And, with the latest election, he surpassed what anyone figured he could do and raised the NDP to official opposition status with 103 seats in parliament.

The reasons I voted for Jack are the same reasons that I am voting for Thomas Mulcair.

Thomas Mulcair aims to continue Jack's practise of modernizing how the NDP presents its message to people. Jack worked on this over the years and this is one of the reasons more and more people have been voting NDP. The values of most Canadians are the same as those of the NDP. What Jack was doing, and what Thomas plans to continue to do, was to reach out to Canadians and convince them that the NDP is the party that best represents their interests. To do this isn't to change the values of the party as the other leadership candidates and supporters would have you believe. To do this is to continue to change the way the message is put out there so it is more understandable to Canadians today. Mulcair talks about bringing the centre to the NDP. By this he means to convince most Canadians that the values of the NDP are their values. And he is correct in this – the values of most Canadians are the same as the values of the NDP. But many people, especially the corporate media, don't want you to know/understand this, because then more people would vote NDP instead of for the corporate-supporting parties (Conservatives and Liberals).

When I worked at a research company dealing with public opinion polls for 13 years, I discovered this point – that most people in Canada actually shared the values of the NDP, much more than the values of the other parties. But, strangely enough, most people voted for parties that did not hold the same values. Why is it that so many people continued to vote for parties that did not have their best interests at heart? There are a number of reasons.

1. The mainstream media, being made of large corporations themselves, tend to slant their news and opinions to generally favour the parties that favour corporations – the Conservatives and Liberals. And this slant is either blatant or subtle. If you don't pay too much attention to politics, you tend to be more easily swayed by what and how the mainstream media talks about politics in Canada.
2. The ruling parties themselves (Conservatives and Liberals) have continued to get messages out that they were the best parties to represent you – the Conservatives claiming that they were the best fiscal managers (when, actually, they are the worst), and the Liberals claiming that they were the most socially responsible party (borrowing from the NDP during election campaigns) (when actually they have always governed from the right when in power, and have supported more socially conservative policies when in opposition).
3. The message from the NDP has been outdated and out of focus. Many of the NDP values and accomplishments are unknown or misunderstood by most people in Canada. This is due to poor communications from the party/leader, to Canadians (as well as to the other 2 points above).

The first two points can't be controlled by the party or the leader. But, we can improve on the third point. Jack Layton began to change how the NDP presented itself so as to better inform people of the NDP successes in government and what we stand for. We need someone to lead the party who not only understands this, but is able to improve on the NDP message to Canadians. Thomas Mulcair understands this need and says he will improve/modernize the message. He has proved that he can do this. He was instrumental in the way the NDP message went out to Quebec in the last election campaign. And, we can see the success that change in message brought – the NDP went from 1 seat to 59 seats in Quebec.

There is no question, even from the opposing leadership candidates, that Thomas Muclair is the most charismatic, and that he is the best debater and public speaker. Combine these facts with his passion, vision and ability to not only bring people together but to convince more people to vote NDP, and there is no doubt that Mulcair would make the best leader of the party. As NDP members, we are not only choosing the leader of the party, but who will be the next Prime Minister of Canada. With Mulcair leading the party, I'm confident that the NDP can form the next Government of Canada.

democraticSPACE Supports Thomas Mulcair

Here is the post by democraticSPACE:

[I've added emphasis in bold.]

Seeing the extreme positions taken by Republican candidates in the U.S. gives us a clue as to the typical dynamic of leadership races –- first, having to win over a party’s base who are more dogmatic than the electorate as a whole, then, to appeal to the broader electorate, having to walk back many of those very positions and risk being condemned as a flip-flopper with no principles.

This typical dynamic makes Thomas Mulcair’s strategy for winning the NDP leadership especially interesting. Simply put, he has not followed the script. He has not delivered the boilerplate sound bites that NDP members (consciously or not) have come to expect. Rather than pay respect to where the Party has been, Mulcair has instead outlined where the Party must go (and what must change for the NDP to take the next step, i.e. to form Government). While Mulcair no doubt could have been a bit more “politically correct” in outlining his rationale for departing from the NDP orthodoxy, I give him full credit for not taking the easy path.

The easy thing to do was simply tell traditional NDP constituencies what they wanted to hear, recite the old gospel, and pretend to be as nice as the guy (Jack Layton) whose rather large shoes he is trying to fill. And while his advisors have surely kept reminding him to smile more for the camera, Mulcair is not and will never be Jack Layton. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Layton resurrected his party from the back corner of the House of Commons to front-and-centre as Her Majesty’s Official Opposition. But it wasn’t because he smiled a lot. It was because he slowly and deliberately shifted the NDP towards a broader appeal. So while Mulcair might strike some hard-line Dippers as “not quite one of us”, his approach is consistent with the trajectory that Layton began.

Now in its government-in-waiting position, the next NDP leader cannot be content merely being the conscience of Parliament. A vote for NDP leader today could well be a vote for the Prime Minister of tomorrow. It cannot be about who smiles the most (or kisses the best!); in fact, it could well be quite the opposite since s/he will be attempting to unseat one of the most strategic and successful Prime Ministers in Canadian history. You don’t have to like Stephen Harper to acknowledge he is determined, disciplined, and yes, successful. And yet, he is not especially popular. Good leaders often aren’t; they don’t merely acquiesce to the most popular idea, they often have a unique capacity to nudge you where you didn’t think you wanted to go.

Each of the other NDP contenders — who are very likable, charismatic and bright — have many strengths essential to an NDP administration, e.g. Nash with labour, Cullen with the West, Ashton with younger voters, Topp strategically, etc. But it seems to me that Mulcair has best demonstrated the qualities of leadership. He has not been afraid to try to convince the base that being in government (i.e. the goal) requires not just opposing what Dippers don’t like (acting on the “no” reflex), but engaging opponents on critical issues and forging *realistic* policies to move these prickly issues towards more just and more sustainable ends. This is especially true on economic issues, which will remain the key battle for the foreseeable future, but which has not traditionally been the NDP’s forte (or at least has not been the issue on which Canadians trust the NDP the most).

That Mulcair arguably has the most direct experience in Government (having served as a Cabinet Minister and been a public servant before that) certainly helps. That he is articulate in both official languages and the only candidate seen as a native son by Quebeckers (who represent 60% of the caucus) also helps. As do his economic (finance critic) and environmental (former Environment Minister) credentials.

But most importantly, he would give the NDP a leader who, though perhaps less politically correct or even as likeable as other candidates, would be as ruthless defending a progressive agenda as Harper defends a conservative agenda. And yet, because he has not taken the easy/conventional path to the NDP leadership, he also seems to be the best placed to make a progressive appeal to voters who have not traditionally supported the NDP. By stepping slightly outside the orthodoxy, Mulcair offers the NDP the best opportunity to form a progressive government. So it seems to me that, on balance, the best choice for NDP leader is Thomas Mulcair.

Howard Hampton's letter endorsing Thomas Mulcair

The following is an open letter from former Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Howard Hampton on behalf of NDP Deputy Leader Thomas Mulcair.

Fellow New Democrats,

As we head into the final weeks of this leadership race, I'm impressed by the positive energy that's building behind Thomas Mulcair.

In just the last two weeks, Tom has not only received the endorsements of fellow leadership candidates Robert Chisholm and Romeo Saganash, but he's also picked up support from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) led by Sharleen Stewart, the Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) in Toronto and former NDP Premier of British Columbia Mike Harcourt.

In Quebec, some of the most prominent media sources in the province have come out in support of Tom's campaign.

That's what I call momentum!

Tom's positive message about uniting progressives is clearly capturing the imaginations of New Democrats from coast to coast to coast. It's that kind of hopeful, optimistic leadership that our party needs if we're going to be ready to take on Stephen Harper once this race is over.

That's one of the reasons why I'm so proud to be supporting Thomas Mulcair.

Since the first day of this leadership race, Tom has run a relentlessly positive campaign.

And that's so important. We need to come out of this race united and ready to bring people together to protect our common values.

Consider this:

Just five days after we choose our next leader, our party's caucus will have to stand up in the House of Commons and respond to Stephen Harper's latest Conservative budget.

We'll have to stand up to Mr. Harper's plans to cut healthcare funding and public pensions.

And to do that, we'll have to stand together.

As Tom likes to say, we've had nine great leadership candidates in this race, and in parliament they'll make a great front bench. We should all be thrilled with the calibre of the talent we have in our party.

So let's stay focused on making this a positive race.

Let's stay focused on the message of hope that our party offers to all Canadians.

And, together, let's take the next step.

Howard Hampton

Fmr. Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party

"Tom Mulcair is the NDPs only alternative"

from Troy Media: Tom Mulcair is the NDP's only alternative

I've highlighted some key points in the article.

ATHABASCA, AB, Mar. 9, 2012, Troy Media/ – “Ordinary Canadians,” to use a phrase that New Democratic Party leaders have been repeating for decades, are clear about whom they want to win the NDP’s interminable federal leadership race. 

A Forum Research poll, conducted March 2 and 3, asked Canadians which party  they would vote for if a federal election were held that day, providing three different scenarios, namely if Tom Mulcair, Peggy Nash, or Brian Topp, the top three contenders, became NDP leader.

Topp not on top

With Mulcair as leader, the NDP would have received 30 per cent of the vote compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives, 23 per cent for the Liberals, 8 per cent for the Greens, and 4 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois. But if Nash were leader, the Tories rise to 33 per cent, while the NDP ties with the LIberals at 24 per cent. Put Topp in charge and the Tories go up to 34 per cent, and the Liberals to 25, with the NDP down to 23 per cent.

In terms of seats, a separate Forum poll of 1,675 Quebeckers demonstrates the devastation for the NDP in Quebec if they don’t choose Mulcair.

Mulcair, according to Forum, would garner 40 per cent of the votes in the province for the NDP and, according to the calculations of 308.com, Canada’s main website for mathematically-minded political geeks, that would retain all of the NDP’s current Quebec seats for the party. By contrast, with Topp as leader, the NDP would win only half that percentage of votes and a measly three seats. Worse, Nash as leader would mean a drop to 18 per cent of the Quebec vote and only one seat (presumably Mulcair’s, but if he chose not to run after losing the leadership contest, the evisceration of the NDP in Quebec seems the logical result).

That should clinch it for Mulcair, one would think, and polls published both by the Mulcair electoral team and by the team of leadership candidate Paul Dewar do show the former Quebec Environment Minister and the first NDPer ever to win a federal seat in Quebec in a federal general election in the lead.

But there is much griping within the NDP about Mulcair. The leading candidates generally conceded that he is the only one who is charismatic but many party members fret that, because of that charisma, he will become a one-man show rather than a team player. 

Everyone also concedes his bond with Quebec, but in English Canada, where NDPers have only recently had to come to terms with Quebec demands and Quebec interests, many members seem bound and determined to once again put Quebec in its place even if it costs them all those seats won by Jack Layton and Mulcair in 2011.

Mulcair wants the party to refresh its language, and has gone after such phrases as “ordinary Canadians” and the strategy of targeting unionized workers rather than workers more generally. That has drawn criticism from fellow candidates regarding his commitment to party traditions, even though a key reason for Jack Layton’s breakthrough in 2011 was that he attempted to make the NDP look less scary to people who had not supported the party in the past but who shared at least some of its values.

The fear on the part of many longstanding members is that perhaps Mulcair is not really “one of us.” But what is “one of us?”

Apart from using comfortable clichés that Mulcair, along with B.C.-based candidate Nathan Cullen, have eschewed, the policy differences between the “traditionalists” and Mulcair are minuscule. But a variety of sources are trying to suggest that Mulcair is hiding something from the members. A website called “Know Thomas Mulcair,” which claims to be the voice of unidentified “progressive” party members, but is more likely a front for one of the other candidates’ campaigns, suggests that he is a Zionist tool, and that he was responsible for cutting many jobs when he was a member of Jean Charest’s Cabinet.

The National Post meanwhile suggested that Mulcair had been toying with the idea of joining the federal Conservatives after resigning from Charest’s government. And then there were the revelations that Mulcair gave money to his own constituency association rather than to the national party, something that the federal party expects its elected members to do.

How accurate are these accusations? A comment by Mulcair in 2008 that seemed to suggest that he, like Stephen Harper, was on Israel’s side no matter what has been much quoted. But throughout the campaign, he has, like the other leading candidates, reiterated the party’s official stance that calls for a two-state solution with Canada attempting to play a mediating role rather than the lapdog role for Israel that Harper plays or a parallel role for the Palestinians that some elements of the NDP advocate.

The criticisms of Mulcair’s presence in a Quebec LIberal government that did indeed cut some public service jobs is interesting, considering that no one faults Topp for his behind-the-scenes role in the big cuts that were made by the Romanow NDP government in Saskatchewan. No doubt that is because an NDP government that leans to the right gets a pass that a Liberal government that tacks to the right does not.

Mulcair no “flaming radical”

But, as Mulcair has pointed out, Quebec provincial politics since the 1970s has divided less on right versus left lines than on federalism versus separatism. Within each camp there are rightists, leftists, and centrists, and the overall platforms of both the Parti Quebecois and the Liberals therefore are a set of compromises. In any case, Mulcair quit the Quebec Liberals when Jean Charest insisted upon allowing resource companies to go ahead with projects in provincial parks, which, in Mulcair’s view, had to be preserved for environmental protection and for popular enjoyment.

Tom Mulcair is no flaming radical, but he does support the NDP’s social, environmental, and economic policies. He has a long history of public service while his opponents have rather thin resumes in terms of work within government or in the private sector.

It will be interesting to see if the party’s almost 130,000 members choose to elect him as their leader and to give Canadians a chance to elect a prime minister who will make a break with the harsh policies of Stephen Harper. Or will their suspicions that this man is too suave, too self-confident, and too willing to go beyond the party’s sleepy phrases cause them to reject him in favour of one of the unfortunately forgettable group of candidates whom the NDP leadership race has attracted along with Mulcair?

Alvin Finkel is professor of History at Athabasca University and author of Social Policy and Practice in Canada: A History (Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 2006)

Thomas Mulcair interviewed by Planet S

Planet S recently interviewed Thomas Mulcair, NDP Leadership 2012 candidate:

THOMAS MULCAIR
In 2008, Thomas Mulcair became the first NDP MP to be elected in Québec. Prior to that, Mulcair, as Québec’s Environment Minister with the provincial Liberal government, fought for a groundbreaking amendment to the Québec Charter of Human Rights and Freedoms that declared a new right: the right to live in a healthy environment that respects biodiversity. In this leadership race Mulcair has garnered the most endorsements from NDP MPs in Ottawa, and leads all candidates in raising donations.

PLANET S: You’ve talked about reaching out beyond the traditional NDP base. What does this entail in your mind?
THOMAS MULCAIR: Right now, our party is not connecting with young people the way that it used to, but we want to hear the ideas of young people because they’re central to our goals. In Québec we saw young people get elected, and a lot of young people came out to vote. The next group that we should be targeting is ethnic communities and cultural minorities.
PS: How exactly do you plan on attracting more young people to the party?
TM: The government has put the largest social and economic debt into the backpacks of young people. Your generation is paying $35,000 more (on average) to get an undergraduate degree than generations that came before you. When are you supposed to buy a house? It’s a matter of intergenerational equity. When you come to retirement, you’ll feel the effects of the wrong-headed approach of the Conservatives. The loss of the manufacturing sector means that your generation will be asked to foot the bill for lost pensions. And you’re also being left with the bill to clean the soil, the air and the water.
So it’s a certain time in our history, in which one generation is actually going to leave less to the next generation, and that’s something that we need to change.
PS: You’ve been pegged as the candidate who would bring the party to the centre.How do you counter concerns that you might compromise longstanding NDP principles?
TM: We’ve gone through four federal elections in a row in Saskatchewan without electing a single [NDP] person. I’d quote Einstein’s definition of madness: we’ve been trying the same thing and expecting a different result. If we repeat the exact same gestures, we will not win any seats in Saskatchewan. Other people have said that I’m going to move the party to the centre, but I’m not going to move the party to the centre; I’m going to move the centre to us.
I want people to realize that the progressive goals and values of the NDP are goals and values that are shared by the majority of Canadians. We’ve often heard the idea that if we form a government it means that we’ve sold out. I don’t think so. I don’t think that we need to change our fundamental values to form a government. But I do know that if we don’t do things differently, we will never form a government.
PS: Why do you think we have a problem getting women involved in politics, and what would you do to change this?
TM: In almost every university faculty, we see about 60 per cent women in the executive. However, in the boardrooms and in politics, we continue to see an underrepresentation. In the 1980s, I was the President of the Office des professions du Québec, and we made a 50 per cent rule. Many commentators — mostly men — at the time argued that we wouldn’t be able to find qualified women for executive positions. But we did.
In Québec [in 2011] the NDP elected about 50 per cent women, and the reason we did this was because we ran 50 per cent women — women who could win. It’s a Québec model that has worked very well. If you look at the Conservative government, the numbers are absolutely astonishing – their caucus is about 15 per cent women because they’ve made absolutely no effort and haven’t made this a priority. There are still government agencies composed entirely of men. If we don’t make change from the top down, we will continue to see a glass ceiling.
PS: What kind of relationship would you like to see between the federal government, the Department of Aboriginal Affairs, and aboriginal people in Canada?
TM: In a country such as Canada it’s unacceptable that we have hundreds of thousands of people [who] live in poverty. It’s pitiful for us to allow third-world, abject poverty to exist on reserves, and I find it shameful that children go hungry. The first step in dealing with these issues is approaching First Nations on a nation-to-nation basis.
The very name of the Indian Act is an indication that it needs to be changed. And it’s the strongest indication that the Act comes from another era. I would change our way of dealing with these issues beginning with changing the Indian Act, and making sure that it no longer has a title like that.
PS: How are you going to address environmental issues without turning economically-minded people off?
TM: Opposing the environment and the economy is a 40-year-old fallacy. I would point to the Porter hypothesis [the idea that strict environmental laws lead to innovation and improve commercial competitiveness], and reality.
There’s no contradiction between the environment and the economy. We can’t allow the development of the oilsands without sustainable rules. This refusal to regulate the oilsands has led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of good-paying manufacturing jobs.
It’s called “the Dutch syndrome,” because it harkens back to when the Dutch launched intensive oil and gas industries and allowed its manufacturing sector to be hollowed out. The Conservatives still have not learned the lesson.
When Ed Schreyer endorsed my candidacy, he asked that we hold the press conference in front of a Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) building in Winnipeg because it was symbolic of what was being lost across Canada because of Conservative policies.
Like the loss of other manufacturing sectors in Ontario and Québec, this one’s going to hurt. A lot of the people who voted for the Conservatives will realize that we weren’t crying wolf. To quote Joni Mitchell, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.
PS: How would you approach the Conservatives in the next election?
TM: The only way to approach the Conservatives is with a tough, structured and determined approach.  That is exactly the fight that I would bring against Harper. Not only do we need to point out the disaster waiting for your generation, we need to offer solutions; we need to not only oppose, but of course propose. We are the official opposition, but that’s just a numerical fact; we’ve also got to become, in people’s minds, the government in waiting, and that’s about proposing new ideas in areas such as sustainable development, for example.
PS: What, if anything, do you think the Occupy movement contributed to Canadian politics?
TM: It was a wake-up call that the root causes of the crash of ’08 have not been addressed, and there are a lot of people in our society who are being left behind. The people who brought that crash are still in charge and they’re still making the same decisions. I can tell you that a lot of the analysis that is being done by leaders of the Occupy movement has a foundation in fact, and it’s the first time since the environmental movement in the ‘60s that the public has taken such direct action.
But it does seem to have run out of steam. More long term, the answer is going to have to be political.

NDP Mulcair statement about bin Laden photos taken out of context ...

NDP's Mulcair clarifies bin Laden comments - Montreal - CBC News

... and blown out of proportion by the media.

Mulcair said the context of the conversation had been lost, and that he
was referring to whether a photo of bin Laden reaching for his gun
exists or not.
"I clearly reference the pictures themselves and say that if the
Americans have them and they're holding them back, it's for reasons of
human decency. So that couldn't be clearer," Mulcair said on Thursday.