Tuesday 3 April 2012

NDP Tied With Conservatives, And, Mulcair Doing Well

Two poll results from March (early March and then just after Mulcair won the leadership of the NDP), by Environics in early March and by Forum in late March, show the NDP tied with the Conservatives.

The Environics poll from March 6-18, 2012, had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30% each (a drop of 10% for the Conservatives). The Liberals were at 20%

The Forum poll from March 26-27, 2012 - just after Mulcair's first couple of days in Parliament as party leader , had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 35% each and the Liberals at 19% (a drop of 3% for the Conservatives, a rise of 7% for the NDP and a drop of 6% for the Liberals,  since the last Forum poll a month ago).

More details on the recent Forum poll with comparisons to their previous poll:

Most effective opposition:
NDP 40% (up from 32%)
Liberals 22% (down from 30%)

Approval rating of each leader (virtually tied):
Stephen Harper 34%
Thomas Mulcair 32%
Bob Rae 32%

Disapproval rating of each leader:
Thomas Mulcair: 22%
Bob Rae: 41%
Stephen Harper: 58%

26% say they are more likely to vote for the NDP now that Thomas Mulcair is the party leader. This includes 23% Liberal supporters, 8% Green party supporters, 40% Bloc supporters and 5% Conservative supporters.

Seat projections from this poll compared to seats at election time:
Conservatives: 151 (155)
NDP: 120 (103)
Liberals 25 (34)
Bloc 11 (4)
Green 1 (1)
This would result in a minority Conservative government.

Support for joint nomination meetings is dropping compared to a month ago:
NDP supporters 51% (59%)
Liberal supporters 50% (60%)

The NDP are leading in Quebec, The Prairies, and in BC.

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