Analysis of ON 2011 Election Results vs My Prediction

My prediction vs the election results.

Party - Prediction - Election
Lib - 50 - 53
PC - 31 - 37
NDP - 26 - 17

I was pretty close with my Liberal prediction, but off in my PC and NDP predictions significantly.

NDP prediction
I put too much credence in the trend of the NDP continuing to rise. It seems that the debate may have given the NDP a rise in some specific ridings, but not across Ontario in general. As a result, there were a number of ridings where the NDP came in a close 2nd that I thought they would win. Probably the biggest recipient of any last minute boost to the NDP came in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, where Jagmeet Singh won for the NDP. I don't think this area has ever elected an NDP member to parliament.

PC prediction
There were a few upsets that weren't predicted in the polls where the PC upset a Liberal incumbent (where it was deemed a safe seat for the Liberals). And, there some close PC-Liberal races where the Liberals had the slight edge in the polls, but the PCs gained even more support on election day.

I figured we would get a Liberal minority government and we did. A step in the right direction - a baby step.

Am I happy with the result. Of course I would have preferred an NDP government, but at least now, there will be some instances where the NDP may be able to bring some pressure on the Liberal government to implement some measures they would like to see.

Unfortunately, we will still see our money squandered on more useless corporate tax cuts (since the PCs and Liberals both want these). This will make it more difficult to reach a balance budget while providing services and support to Ontarians.

Ontario Election Predictions Oct 2011

My predictions
(based on riding projections from 308.com, recent polls, polling trends, individual riding polls)
Liberals 50 seats (minority government)
PC 31 seats
NDP 26 seats

threehundredeight's predictions
LIberals 57 seats (majority government)
PC 30 seats
NDP 20 seats


Tight races the NDP are in:
Northern Ontario
Saulte Ste Marie - Liberal/NDP
Sudbury - NDP/Liberal

Eastern Ontario
Kingston & the Islands - Liberal/NDP

SW Ontario
Essex - Liberal/NDP
Sarnia-Lambton - PC/NDP
Windsor West - NDP/Liberal
Windsor-Tecumseth - Liberal/NDP

Toronto
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal/NDP/PC
Toronto Centre - Liberal/NDP
York West - Liberal/NDP

Ford Nation is now a little clam. And, Tim Hudak is as out of touch as ever

Toronto News: Hudak plunges into dangerous liaison with Rob Ford - thestar.com

According to the Toronto Star, Rob Ford's popularity has been steadily declining since the election in Oct. 2010.

Ford’s popularity is sinking, according to polling data, as his hunt for
“gravy” falters and his administration wobbles. Just as the provincial
campaign takes off, Ford is wading into budget deliberations seemingly
eager to inflict deep spending cuts despite a promise not to.
...
And Tim Hudak must have drank a lot of the Ford Nation kool-aid because he thinks that, under the Miller administration in Toronto, services went down and a deficit was run.

Hudak told reporters after the more than hour-long meeting in Ford’s
mother’s sprawling bungalow they talked about the mayor’s efforts to
clean up the financial “mess” left by his predecessor, David Miller.


“Taxes went up and services went down and they have a significant deficit,” Hudak said.
Actually Tim, services were maintained or went up, and they ran a surplus, not a deficit. And the fact that Hudak thinks there still was a "gravy train" when it has been proven that, without a doubt, there was no "gravy train" at City Hall, goes to show just how out of touch he is with reality and Toronto.

And Ford has been asking the provincial party leaders for money for his failed Sheppard subway extension. The subway extension that was supposed to cost the taxpayers nothing since he would be able to get private business to pay for it all. But, no offers are forthcoming.

And then we have a quote from John Capobianco, a PC party activist and Rob Ford adviser claiming about Rob Ford:
“He was elected with a sweeping mandate for change at City Hall and he
has done a phenomenal job of cutting spending and keeping taxes down.”
Actually, John, Rob Ford has increased spending, and reduced income, and will have to put a huge tax hike in place to balance things out sooner than later.

Here is the most heartening part of the article:
But the Star has learned of polling data showing Ford’s
popularity steadily sinking from an almost 70 per cent approval rating
after the Oct. 25 election to only 45 per cent in early August.


Nelson Wiseman, a veteran political  scientist at the University of Toronto, also believes the Fords’  rock-star appeal has dimmed, scoffing at the mayor’s past threat to
unleash his “Ford Nation” supporters to topple McGuinty.


“Ford Nation is now a little clam,”  Wiseman said. “Sometimes it seems to be two people — Rob and his brother who, since the election, have come across like Abbott and Costello.

Ontario NDP continue to rise in the polls

Ontario Liberals close in on Hudak’s Conservatives: poll | News | National Post
The Ontario NDP continue to rise in the polls.
In the latest Forum Research poll, support for the NDP has risen to 26%. Previously, in Forum polls, they were at 24% in late July, and 22% in late June.

Since late June, the Conservatives have dropped 6 points from 41% to 35%. The Liberals have risen from 26% to 30%.

If all these trends continue, we could indeed see a very tight 3-way race.

Support in 2007 for each party at Election time was: Liberals 42.3%, Conservatives 31.6% and NDP 16.8%. The change compared to the current levels of support: Lib -12.3%, Con +3.4%, NDP +9.2%

The Forum Research poll was based on an interactive voice response
telephone survey of 2,310 randomly selected Ontario residents. Conducted
from August 29 to August 30, the poll has a 2 per cent margin of error,
19 times out of 20.

Ontario NDP still rising in the polls

Hudak’s lead shrinks, poll shows - thestar.com

All the polls since Jan. 2011 have shown the Ontario NDP steadily rising (Nanos, Ipsos, Forum) from a low of 13% in January, to a high, so far, of 24% in the latest Forum Research poll.
Latest Forum Research poll July 26-27, 2011 with 2,256 Ontarians.


The NDP are closing in on the Liberals (at 28%), and the PCs have dropped to 38%.

Leader approval ratings:
Andrea Horwath: 63% (rising)
Tim Hudak: 49% (dropping)
Dalton McGuinty: 39% (rising)

Leader disapproval ratings:
McGuinty: 61% (dropping)
Hudak: 51% (rising)
Horwath: 37% (dropping)

Ontario NDP would cap gas prices

New Democrats will stop price gouging at the pump: Horwath « Ontario NDP
An NDP government in Ontario would set weekly price caps on the cost of gasoline.

Five provinces and many U.S. states have some sort of price cap on gasoline. The benefits have resulted in reduced price volatility, competition and efficiency, and eliminated opportunistic price gouging.

Ontario NDP on the rise as an election looms in Ontario

Ontario provincial NDP has momentum - The Globe and Mail
Nanos polling shows that since Feb. 2011, the NDP has risen 6 points from 13% to 19%.
During this same time period, the Conservatives have dropped 2 points to 41% and the Liberals have dropped 5 points to 34%.

In the last week before the federal election, the NDP support rose significantly in Ontario, passing the Liberals.

This rise in Ontario for the NDP could be attributed to the federal orange wave effect. The Ontario election is some months away. It will remain to be seen how things will play out. This is a good start for the NDP.

MMP - The Aftermath and The Future

Nothing much changed with this election. The number of seats changed only by one (one less for the Liberals, and one more for the Conservatives). And, the NDP did better than the last provincial election in seats and popular support (3 more seats and about 2% more popular support), and a lot of Conservative support switched to the Green party, almost tripling their vote.
And, the electoral system remains at FPTP.

Here are some numbers for thought:

This was the lowest voter turnout in the history of the province - 52%.
(4.4 million out of 8.4 million eligible voters)
And, only 39% of these people of these people voted in the referendum (1.7 million voters).
And, the referendum was defeated by 63% of these people (1 million voters).

The highest support for MMP in a single riding was in my riding of Trinity-Spadina - 59%

How did MMP fail?
I agree with how More notes from underground put it:
It was overwhelmed by the election. It could have been explained much better. More people probably based their decision on the Toronto Star's fearmongering editorials. The MSM still dominates political debate for most people. And, Ontario's cautious political nature.

But, information did come out and at least about 700,000 people managed to learn enough about MMP to want to embrace it in the referendum. This means that there is that seed of knowledge out there in Ontario, which can only grow. Of the people who voted in the referendum, in the youth group of 18-34, 67% voted for MMP.

Now, here is the food for thought for those who voted against MMP.

If you recalculate the seats from this election under MMP, we would see something like this

Party - Vote % - Seats under FPTP - Seats under MMP

Lib - 42% - 71 - 45
Con - 32% - 26 - 35
NDP - 17% - 10 - 18
Green - 8% - 0 - 9

In this election, the majority, 58%, did not vote for the Liberal party. But now, for the next 4 years, the Liberal party will rule with an absolute majority power in parliament.
If we had MMP, the Liberals would have a minority of seats in parliament and would have to work with others (either vote by vote or in collaboration) in order to govern - which would be more representative of the people of Ontario.

MMP may be gone for now, but it will not be forgotten.

Why Should Liberals Vote for MMP?

Read the post at democraticSPACE.
Great post. But, of note is the comment by Dean Sherratt:

I agree because at this moment the “other parties” would lean left…NDP and Green. What right wing parties would the Conservatives add to their vote total? Hence, the PCs would need near to a majority to form a government, while the Liberals could sink to 30% or less and still form a coalition-style government.

Well, I wouldn't call the Green Party a Left party anymore (as some of their fiscal policies lean more Right than the Conservatives), you get the idea - the NDP policies are no where near in similarity to the Conservative policies, while they are more similar to the Liberal policies. So, a Liberal minority government would most likely form a coalition with the NDP in an MMP situation. This would be the most likely form of the government for some time under MMP.

If MMP Is So Great For Party Bosses, How Come They Are Fighting It So Hard?

John Torry and the Conservatives have come out swinging today against MMP. Included in their tirade is the usual pack of lies about MMP.

Steve Withers of the Vote For MMP campaign expressed concern at the Conservative email.

"The void left by Elections Ontario is being filled by ... fact-free fear-mongering," he said, criticizing the province's non-partisan elections commission for not doing enough to inform voters despite a $6.8 million advertising blitz.

Withers also questioned the logic of MMP opponents who claim unelected backroom insiders would wield more power.

"MMP is great for party bosses? If it was, how come they're fighting it so hard?" he said.

With the Conservatives doing so poorly in the polls right now, this means that a large portion of Conservative votes will be wasted in this election. Most likely one half to one quarter of Conservative voters won't end up being represented by Conservative seats in parliament. With MMP, ALL the Conservative voters would end up being represented by Conservative seats in parliament. It leaves you wondering, are the Conservative party bosses just daft, or are they afraid of something? And if party bosses don't like it, it's got to be good for average citizens. It is us, the average citizen, that will gain more power, and the party bosses who will lose power in MMP.

A vote FOR MMP on Oct 10th, is a vote for increased voter power in elections. Don't forget that.

Ontario Referendum Picker Quiz v.2

Here is an updated version of the Referendum Picker Quiz.

This is a quiz to help you chose how to vote in the referendum on Oct. 10 2007 in Ontario.

Get a pen and paper and write down your answers. Then score the answer and total your score and refer to the Score Results at the end to see how you should vote.

Note: Nothing takes the place of full and proper research of both sides of the issue. But, if you have done that and are still unsure, this quiz might help.

QUESTIONS

1) I would prefer a system where

a) I am represented in parliament by whoever wins in my riding, regardless of what party they represent and regardless of whether I voted for them or not.

b) I am represented in parliament by a member of the party I voted for, as well as by whoever wins in my riding, regardless of what party they represent and regardless of whether I voted for them or not.

2) I would prefer to have

a) a majority government only when the party actually wins a majority of the popular vote

b) a majority government when the party wins a majority of the seats, regardless of the whether they received a majority or a minority of the popular vote

3) In a minority government situation, I would prefer the main government party to

a) govern as best they can on their own with as little collaboration and/or compromise with the other parties as possible in order to get done what they can in a minority voting position

b) find common ground with one or more other parties by collaborating and/or making compromises in order to get done what they can in a majority voting position

4) In an election, I would prefer

a) to be able to vote for a local candidate only

b) to be able to vote for a party, as well as a local candidate

5) Currently, Ontario voters have the lowest level of provincial representation in Canada, with each Ontario legislator representing more voters, by far, than legislators in any other province. With this in mind

a) I would prefer that the number of elected seats in parliament remain at 107

b) I would prefer to increase the number of elected seats in parliament to 129

6) If you were in a riding where the party you support never usually has a chance of winning, which of the following would make you more likely to vote in an election

a) if you knew that the local candidate/party you vote for would probably lose, and then you would not be represented in parliament by a candidate/party of your choosing

b) if you knew that the local candidate you vote for would probably lose, but that you could also vote for the party you want and be represented by them in parliament (regardless of whether your local candidate wins or loses)

7) If a party you didn't vote for won a majority of seats in an election, although 60% of the voters voted for other parties, do you think it is fair that this party (which only represents 40% of the voters) governs absolutely without input from the other parties (that represent 60% of the voters) for 4 years?

a) Yes, it is fair

b) No, it is not fair

8) If you feel your vote never counts since the party you vote for never wins, so you have stopped voting, would you start voting again if

a) your vote counted all the time

b) your vote only counted if the party you voted for won

9) Would you prefer

a) that the members of parliament better reflect the diversity of gender and ethnicity that we have across the province

b) that the members of parliament remain mainly white men.

10) Would you prefer that

a) voters have more power in their say as to who makes up the government

b) voters have less power in their say as to who makes up the government

SCORING

1) a-0, b-1

2) a-1, b-0

3) a-0, b-1

4) a-0, b-1

5) a-0, b-1

6) a-0, b-1

7) a-0, b-1

8) a-1, b-0

9) a-1, b-0

10) a-1, b-0

SCORE RESULTS

0 - First Past The Post All The Way!

You should vote to keep the current electoral system of FPTP

1-4 - First Past The Post

You should vote to keep the current electoral system of FPTP, but you think there are some good things about MMP

5-6 - Research More

You are beginning to get the picture about MMP, but you still believe FPTP has it's merits. You should do more research before Oct. 10th.

7-9 - Mixed Member Proportional

You should vote for the new electoral system of MMP, but you still think there are a few things about FPTP you like better

10 - Mixed Member Proportional All The Way!

You should vote for the new electoral system of MMP

You Tell'Em Howie!

Howard Hampton, leader of the Ontario Provincial NDP, took the mainstream media to task today for focusing on issues that are not at the top of peoples' minds.

Will we see the media start to report on the real issues? That would be nice. Let's see proper reporting and information on the Referendum and MMP. Let's see reporting on the environment, proper funding of schools, energy/electricity issues, child poverty, homelessness, seniors homes, and so on.

UPDATE
See James Laxer's

Why Howard Hampton and the NDP Deserve Your Support on Wednesday