NDP Clearest Alternative, Globe & Mail Is Loathe To Admit

The G&M must be loathe to report stories like this. But the NDP are so much in the lead and seen as the party of clear change, that they have no choice. But, that doesn't stop them from trying to tilt the story in the Conservatives favour. Let's take a look at where the G&M has problems writing a news story:

Canadians will be asked to choose between political stability and renewal - G&M states here that we currently have political stability. Funny, since when do these mean political stability?:
- subverting democracy (Bill C-51, Bill C-377, Bill C-23 among many others, cheating in elections)
- racking up the most debt of a Canadian government ever,
- running a deficit for most of their time
- balancing a budget only by looting from the EI fund
- ignoring the urgent issue of Climate Change
- focusing our economy on the oil extraction industry to the great detriment to the manufacturing industry.
-  corruption and cronyism
- warmongering instead of peacekeeping
- and the list goes on.
A more accurate line would be:
Canadians will be asked to choose between gross fiscal mismanagement & the brink of fascism, and stability & democracy.


Pollster Nik Nanos said the NDP has staked out the clearest policy positions in opposition to the Conservative Party, while the Liberals have a more nuanced approach.
- Okay, these were probably Nik Nanos' words but using "nuanced" here is a nice way of saying that the Liberal policy positions are mainly just like the Conservatives, except for when they try to copy some of the NDP policies to try to steal their support. History shows that time and again, the Liberals, whose policies mirror (especially more recently) those of the Conservatives, always campaign on the left only to toss these left leaning policies to the wind if they win the election.

The NDP has been working hard to reassure Canadians its economic policies would be largely in line with those of the current government. The biggest change proposed by the NDP is to increase corporate taxes, although party officials said the planned rate, to be revealed in coming months, would be “reasonable.”
-  Actually, the NDP has been working hard to show Canadians that its economic policies would NOT be in line with those of the current government. The NDP plans to NOT waste money on more and bigger prisons (not needed as the crime rate has been steadily dropping), unnecessary/problematic/costly jets, corporate welfare, unaccountable missing $3.1 billion, and many other porky Conservative pies. NDP governments, on average, have a much better fiscal record than Conservatives.

Party officials said the NDP is looking for candidates with an economic background who could serve as ministers of finance or industry. The recent upswing in the polls could make that easier.
- It may well be that the NDP is looking for more candidates with economic backgrounds, but they already have a number of MPs with economic backgrounds. And unmentioned here is Erin Weir, who has been suggested as a potential Finance Minister.

While both parties want to replace the Conservatives, their partisans have been at one another’s throats. Last week, the Liberals suggested Mr. Mulcair’s flirtation with the Conservatives in 2007 undermined the NDP’s promises to clean up the environment.
- The G&M fails to mention that this has been debunked a number of times, including recently by some high-up Conservatives.
- And "undermined the NDP's promises to clean up the environment"? The facts on this story actually result in boosting the NDP's seriousness about cleaning up the environment. 


I'll leave you with a few choice comments made after the G&M news item (these are all in the top ten most liked comments, and from the G&M readers no less!):

Mr Leblanc's first paragraph is flawed, or the poll was flawed. The choice is not between "change" and "stability." It is between "change" and "no change." I certainly would neither call what our economy had gone through in the last year as anything approaching stability, nor would I call the government actions in domestic and foreign policy as stabilizing.



My wife and I are in the over 65 age group and for the first time ever will be voting NDP as we have seen never ending corruption with the Libs and Cons for way too many years. Many of our friends have also decided to vote NDP as it is clearly time to send a big message to all elected officials, the voters are fed up and will not take it anymore and you will be forced to understand this come the election.



choose between political stability and renewal,..........
Nope......It's choosing between getting a country back to sanity...or carrying on with the most corrupt, crooked, manipulative crew of PROVEN liars and cheats This country has ever been controlled by .....A government rife with contempt, disrespect.....There have never been so many from a political party involved in fraud, lies, election irregularities...legal proceedings, and criminal investigations...ever.....
Duffy, Wallin, Brazeau, Porter, Grestein, Stewart/Olsen, Wright, LeBreton, PMO staff
A LONG list of crooks......
It's about voting OUT crooks and taking the nation back from the brink of fascism!!


the first sentence claims there is a choice between change and political stability. Huh? If the government loses an election in Canada, that does not mean there is less stability.
By the Globe's definition of that term..I guess North Korea has the most political stability of all.

NDP Support Pre-election 2011 Compared to 2015

Here is an interesting comparison between the NDP support 8-5 months before the election in 2011 compared to the same period now in 2015.

Back in 2011, support was in the mid teens at this time and didn't start to rise until closer to the election. But in 2015, support was in the upper teens and has gradually risen (with a jump at the end of the period) to close to 30 in the same period.

So, the NDP support this time around is much stronger, double what it was at the same time before the previous election. They are well situated to continue to grow to a position to form the government.

With the rise of the provincial NDP in Alberta, and with the federal Liberals not looking very progressive, especially with their vote to support bill C-51, progressive voters are looking more and more to the NDP as the party to support to beat the Harper Conservatives.

The following table shows a comparison of the regional support over these time periods (numbers taken from EKOS polls)

	2011			2015
	Sep. 2010	Dec. 2010	change	Feb. 2015	May 2015	change
BC	31	22	-9	22	31	+9
AB	13	6	-7	10	25	+15
SK (SK&MB 2011)	16	19	+3	23	28	+5
MB				16	20	+4
ON	15	16	+1	15	27	+12
QC	9	11	+2	23	36	+13
Atlantic	15	13	-2	18	24	+6

In the latest EKOS poll, May 6-12, 2015, The NDP are leading in Quebec and BC, are in second place in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Atlantic, and are now only 6 points off the lead in Ontario. Support in Ontario is vital for the NDP to really increase their seat total. And the gains in Alberta, which until now were totally unexpected, will be a bonus.

UPDATE

A Forum poll has just come out with similar numbers as the EKOS poll - Con and Lib 31% each and NDP at 30%.

Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”


News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

The Oil Industry and Pipelines - What the NDP has been saying all along

Calgary Herald: NDP Leader Mulcair says oilsands access should be opened up, but not with new pipeline

Yes. A better/cleaner/safer plan all around would be to process this stuff in Canada (preferably closer to the source IMHO) and then ship out the refined material.

Also, collect more royalties from the companies that are extracting the oil (the royalty levels are insanely low right now) and use those to help the manufacturing industry across Canada. And make the extractors pay for the clean-up of the waste products and the pollution they create. Makes sense. 

This is more or less what the NDP has been saying all along (although the corporate media and the Conservatives across Canada have been doing a great job of making you think that the NDP is not for this but is instead against the oil industry and "The West". - These  are bare-faced lies about the NDP policy and anyone with more than 2 brain cells can see that these are lies. Observe the polls showing the NDP support continually increasing/staying high, while the Con support keeps dropping. Most Canadians are not dummies).

But the corporate Harper government (a.k.a. looters in suits) doesn't want this - they just want to keep things going as is and damn the consequences (as the corporations will make more money if they don't have to be responsible for the consequences).

And, can we get rid of the subsidies the Canadian government pays to the companies extracting oil from the Tarsands who are making $ billions in profit?!!! These made sense in the beginning to entice companies to begin extracting - but they don't make any sense now that the processes are established already and these companies no longer need the subsidies.

NDP Rise To 37%, Conservatives Drop To 30%

Since Tom Mulcair was chosen to lead the party back in March, the NDP has maintained a strong support across Canada, which has continued to grow. The opposite is true for the Conservatives. Their support has been steadily dropping. Canadians are becoming more aware of the scandals plaguing them. And the exposure of the omnibus budget bill has not helped the Conservatives either. The Liberals are maintaining their support in the low 20s.

Of Significant Note:
Some things of significant note about the latest poll numbers from Forum Research are that the NDP are now ahead of the Conservatives in the Prairies (43% to 33%), and are tied in Ontario at 34% each.

Previously, the Conservatives led in Alberta, Ontario and the Prairies, while the NDP led in Quebec, BC and in the Atlantic provinces. Now the Conservatives only lead in Alberta, are tied in Ontario, and the NDP leads everywhere else.

Also, Bob Rae's decision to bow out of the Liberal leadership race boosted his approval rating to 40% nationally.

Poll Standings
CANADA
NDP 37%
Con 30%
Lib 22%
Green 5%
Bloc 6%

ONTARIO
NDP 34%
Con 34%
Lib 28%
Green 3%

QUEBEC
NDP 41%
Con 15%
Lib 18%
Green 4%
Bloc 22%

BC
NDP 45%
Con 30%
Lib 17%
Green 7%

ALBERTA
NDP 13%
Con 60%
Lib 18%
Green 7%

PRAIRIES
NDP 43%
Con 33%
Lib 19%
Green 5%

ATLANTIC
NDP 44%
Con 28%
Lib 22%
Green 4%

This poll had a sample size of 1529, which has a margin of error of 2.51%, 19 times out of 20.

Other poll findings:
Favourable support of party leaders:
Tom Mulcair 39%
Stephen Harper 31%
Bob Rae 40%

Net Approval (approve minus disapprove)
Tom Mulcair +8%
Stephen Harper -30%
Bob Rae +8%

Forum Research:
In a sign that Canadians appreciate a clean exit, Bob Rae's approval rating has
increased from one third last month (33%) to 4-in-10 now (40%), and he has a
net approval (approve minus disapprove) of +8. This compares very favourably
with Tom Mulcair's approval of 4-in-10 (39%), and net approval of +8. Both these
scores easily outdistance those for Stephen Harper (31% approval, net approval
-30).

Majority expects government to be defeated in next election
In a measure of perception rather than voting intention, more than one half of
Canadians expect the current government to be defeated in the next election
(53%), while one third expect it to be re-elected (34%). While this is very similar
to levels of Conservative support, it should be noted that just 8-in-10
Conservative voters expect their party to be re-elected (79%), while one tenth do
not expect this to happen (11%). In an exact reversal of opinion, 8-in-10 NDP
supporters do not think the government will be re-elected (79%), and one tenth
think it will be (11%).
 
Trudeau as leader improves Liberal fortunes
If Justin Trudeau were leader of the Liberal party and the election were held
today, while the reduced plurality (32%) would still support the NDP, the Liberals
and the Conservatives would draw even in second place, with just more than a
quarter of the electorate each (28% each). The Bloc would claim the support of
5% and the Green Party of 4%. It is clear that Trudeau draws support (about 5%)
from the NDP.

Justin Trudeau leads all other contenders
When asked to select from a list of contenders for the Liberal leadership, one
quarter of Canadians in general (23%) and one third of Liberal supporters (33%)
pick Justin Trudeau, and no one else comes close. Close to one half of Canadians
(44%) and one quarter of Liberal supporters (26%) don't know who to select.
John Manley (7%) was more popular among Conservative supporters (13%) and
residents of Manitoba / Saskatchewan and Alberta (14% each). Like Trudeau,
Dominic Leblanc (4%) had highest support from residents of the Atlantic (11%)
and Quebec (6%). Gerard Kennedy (5%) was more likely to be selected by
Ontarians and British Columbians (8% each) than those of other provinces. Martha Hall-Findlay was more popular among Albertans (6%). In addition, Marc
Garneau had the support of close to a tenth of Quebeckers (8%).
 
Majority of Liberals approve of Trudeau as leader
When asked directly if they approved or disapproved of Justin Trudeau as leader
of the Liberals, the majority of party supporters (58%) approve, while just one
fifth disapprove (21%). Among the general populace, there is a split in opinion,
and just less than 4-in-10 approve (39%) and just more than a third disapprove
(34%).
Quebeckers had the highest approval for Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal
Party (49%; compared to 40% Atlantic, 39% Ontario, 36% Manitoba /
Saskatchewan, 31% British Columbia, 25% Alberta).

More Analysis:

Dave Akin's On The Hill: Has It Ever Been So Good To Be A New Democrat?
One thing that people are debating in the comments to Dave's post is that Ed Broadbent had 40% support in between polls back in 1986, but that dropped significantly when it came to election time and the NDP remained in 3rd place. The major differences here are that there was a huge rise in support for the NDP before the most recent election, at which time the NDP became the official opposition with a large number of seats, and that support for the party has pretty much maintained since that time.

Federal NDP Continue To Edge Towards A Majority Government

The latest Forum Research poll (Forum Research results, National Post story) shows the NDP in the lead nationally, in Quebec, Atlantic and BC, and almost tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the Prairies. 

The only province that the Conservatives hold a strong lead in is Alberta.

Poll standings:
Canada
NDP 36%
Con 32%
Lib 20%
Green 6%
Bloc 5%

Ontario
NDP 34%
Con 35%
Lib 25%
Green 5%

Quebec
NDP 40%
Con 18%
Lib 14%
Green 5%
Bloc 21%

BC
NDP 40%
Con 31%
Lib 18%
Green 10%

Alberta
NDP 16%
Con 61%
Lib 15%
Green 6%

Prairies
NDP 37%
Con 38%
Lib 17%
Green 7%

Atlantic
NDP 51%
Con 22%
Lib 24%
Green 3%

This poll had a sample size of 1836, which has a margin of error of 2.29%, 19 times out of 20.

Other poll findings:
Favourable support of party leaders:
Tom Mulcair 41%
Stephen Harper 33%
Bob Rae 33%

Net Approval (approve minus disapprove)
Tom Mulcair +10%
Stephen Harper -26%
Bob Rae -5%

Forum Research: "One third approve of the job Stephen Harper is doing as Prime Minister (33%), stable from last month (34%), while one third also approve of the job Bob Rae is
doing (33%) and this is down slightly since last month (35%). NDP leader Tom
Mulcair's favourables are at 41% and this hasn't changed. In terms of 'net
approval' (approve minus disapprove), Mulcair is at +10, while Harper and Rae
languish in the negative numbers (-26 and -5, respectively). Harper's low net
approval rating is due to high levels of disapproval not applied to the other two
leaders."

Canada suffers from income gap
77% agree that the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor 

Lower dollar preferred
Forum Research: "Close to one half of those polled said a low dollar supporting manufacturing was better for Canada than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports (45%), while about one third disagreed (35%)."

Majority want to deny Conrad Black Canadian citizenship
Forum Research: "More than six-in-ten say they disagree convicted media tycoon Conrad Black should be given back the Canadian citizenship he renounced (61%). Just one fifth
(21%) think he deserves this second chance.
Supporters of either the federal Conservatives or Liberals (28%, 26%; compared
to 18% Green, 15% NDP, and 7% BQ), and Canadians residing outside of Quebec
(28% Alberta, 24% British Columbia, 24% Ontario, 24% Atlantic, 22% Prairies, and
9% Quebec) were more likely to agree that Black should be given back his
Canadian citizenship.
"Canadians are proud of their country, and value its citizenship. It is clear they do
not think Conrad Black deserves the benefits of being a Canadian anymore," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff."

Going To The Wall In Defense Of Mulcair

Great post by Erin Weir - The Progressive Economics Forum:

"Mulcair has articulated a balanced approach to resource development that would generate more public revenue, a more competitive exchange rate, and more manufacturing jobs. Saskatchewan is well positioned to help implement and benefit from this approach by raising provincial resource royalties."

Read the whole post here.

So much of the MSM are focusing only on the Conservative party talking points - oh, Mulcair and the NDP are against the West and against developing oil and resources. This is so much hogwash. Mulcair and the NDP are FOR development and FOR the West. What they would like to see is a more balanced approach that would improve the environmental situation around extracting resources, as well as a more balanced approach regarding royalties which would bring in more money for Canada. All of this would help Canadian manufacturing across Canada, as well as create a lot more Canadian jobs.

NDP MP Bruce Hyer Quits and Then Wants Back In

Okay, wouldn't it have made sense for Hyer to discuss his concerns with Mulcair BEFORE taking an extreme action that he now obviously regrets? All of this only shows poor judgment on Hyer's part.

Hyer was really just sore because he wasn't picked for a shadow cabinet position. Of course he wasn't - because he voted against the party on a key issue, more than once.

And, regarding that key issue - the Long Gun Registry. The NDP's aim was and is not to support it as-is (was), but to improve it so that it both serves the purpose of improved safety and as a useful tool for law enforcement regarding crimes, AND so that the licensing costs and procedures are not so annoying to legitimate gun owners, especially those in rural Canada where gun ownership is often a necessity.

I say, either cut him loose and find a more responsible NDP candidate for that riding, or, bring him back and put him to work on helping to improve the gun registry procedures to make it more reasonable for rural Canadians.


CBC: MP Bruce Hyer open to rejoining NDP caucus, if invited.

Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

Party - March 30 - April 25 - change

NDP - 34% - 36% - +2%

Con - 36% - 33% - -3%
Lib  - 19% - 22% - +3%
Green - 5% - 2% - -3%
Bloc - 5% - 6% - +1%


Leader Popularity - March 30 - April 25 - change

Mulcair - 32% - 41% - +9%

Harper - 34% - 34% - no change
Rae     - 36% - 35% - -1%

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib  - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1


Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

Party - Feb. 29 - April 18 - change
NDP - 25% - 32% - +7%
Con  - 36% - 35% - -1%
Lib   - 30% - 23% - -7%
Green - 3% - 4% - +1%
Bloc   - 5% - 4% - -1%

Leader - Feb 29 - April 18 - change

Leader Trustworthiness
Turmel - 7% - Mulcair - 20% - +13%

Harper - 32% - 20% - -12%

Rae - 20% - 14% - -6%

Leader Competence
Turmel - 6% - Mulcair - 17% - +11%

Harper - 38% - 24% - -14%

Rae - 19% - 12% - -7%

Leader Vision for Canada
Turmel - 8% - Mulcair - 17% - +9%

Harper - 33% - 22% - -11%

Rae - 16% - 11% - -5%

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

Forum Research latest poll results
Nanos latest poll results
News articles on these results from The Toronto Star, CBC, The National Post, The Globe & Mail.