Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

Party - March 30 - April 25 - change

NDP - 34% - 36% - +2%

Con - 36% - 33% - -3%
Lib  - 19% - 22% - +3%
Green - 5% - 2% - -3%
Bloc - 5% - 6% - +1%


Leader Popularity - March 30 - April 25 - change

Mulcair - 32% - 41% - +9%

Harper - 34% - 34% - no change
Rae     - 36% - 35% - -1%

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib  - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1


Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

Party - Feb. 29 - April 18 - change
NDP - 25% - 32% - +7%
Con  - 36% - 35% - -1%
Lib   - 30% - 23% - -7%
Green - 3% - 4% - +1%
Bloc   - 5% - 4% - -1%

Leader - Feb 29 - April 18 - change

Leader Trustworthiness
Turmel - 7% - Mulcair - 20% - +13%

Harper - 32% - 20% - -12%

Rae - 20% - 14% - -6%

Leader Competence
Turmel - 6% - Mulcair - 17% - +11%

Harper - 38% - 24% - -14%

Rae - 19% - 12% - -7%

Leader Vision for Canada
Turmel - 8% - Mulcair - 17% - +9%

Harper - 33% - 22% - -11%

Rae - 16% - 11% - -5%

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

Forum Research latest poll results
Nanos latest poll results
News articles on these results from The Toronto Star, CBC, The National Post, The Globe & Mail.