Thursday 26 April 2012

Federal NDP On The Rise In Vote-Rich Ontario Massive NDP leads in Quebec, Ontario competitive: Two federal polls conducted recently in Quebec by Forum Research and CROP indicate that the New Democrats have not only taken the lead, th...

The Federal NDP are doing well in Quebec and improving in Ontario.
The big story here is not how well they are doing in Quebec as that has been known since the end of March (there have been a number of polls showing that they are, by far, back on top in Quebec since the convention March 24th), but how well they are doing in Ontario compared to election time.

Here is a comparison of how the parties are faring in Ontario

Party - Election - April 18, 2012
Con - 44% - 36% (down 8%)
NDP - 26% - 32% (up 6%)
Lib - 25% - 24% (down 1%)

(Source: Forum Research poll April 23, 2012 - sample size 980)

The general trend here is that the Conservatives are steadily dropping, the Liberals have stayed about the same, while the NDP has continued the trend of increasing support that started just before the election. This is huge for the NDP as Ontario has so many seats, and for the NDP to become the next government, they will need to significantly increase their seats here. If they can continue this trend of increasing support in Ontario over the next 3 years, we will see an NDP government in 2015.

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