Mulcair's Views Very Similar To Layton's

Many NDP members were worried during the leadership campaign that Mulcair had some extreme views on some issues. Not so. Here is a great piece by Leftist Jab touching on a couple of these issues. Read that post for the details.

Some people feared that Mulcair would break from working with some key NDP members who had differing opinions. But, during Mulcair's interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge, shortly after the election, Mulcair said that he was proud and glad to see that Libby Davies got up on stage with him when he made his acceptance speech, and that he said he would like her to continue to be the deputy party leader. He also said that he will continue to work with Brian Topp. 

And, regarding the speculation that a new leader could drastically change the core policies of the NDP - rubbish. During the convention, Peter Mansbridge spoke with Olivia Chow and Stephen Lewis. Both of them reminded Peter of what all NDP members should know: that the leader does not make the policy, the party members set the policy at their conventions and the party and leader follow those policies. Thomas Mulcair has shown time and again that his core values and the NDP's core values are one in the same. 

In conclusion, Leftist Jab writes:

There is no break with tradition and I think the most revealing aspect of his approach to leadership was when Peter Mansbridge read out the talking points that the Conservative Party of Canada had about him. He dismissed them ably and when asked whether he would take out advertisement to counter them, he said he wasn't initially inclined to do so but he'd discuss it with his caucus and the NDP strategists if this was a necessity.

It wasn't about him and he'd much rather put the spotlight on the many missteps by the Conservatives than make his leadership a personal pissing contest between him and Stephen Harper. However, if the Conservatives would be able to define him as they have previous Opposition Leaders, he would do what's necessary to bring back the focus on policy issues.

An even-handed and thoughtful approach.

I'm confident that Thomas Mulcair will win the confidence of all New Democrats with his leadership and hopeful he'll do likewise with the majority of Canadians come 2015.

NDP now tied with Conservatives federally

Public grief over Layton puts NDP even with Tories in poll - The Globe and Mail
The Conservative support has dropped since the election and the NDP keeps on rising. The 2 parties are now tied with 33% support each. Liberals are in 3rd place with 21%.
Pollster Allan Gregg attributes the rise in the NDP support to the effect of Jack Layton's passing. But the NDP was slowly rising already before their leader passed away. And this doesn't explain the big drop (7%) in Conservative support (or does it?).

I've read about many people who didn't vote last time say that they will vote NDP next time. So, maybe we are looking at added decided voters supporting the NDP.

Stephen Lewis' Eulogy for Jack Layton

Full text of Stephen Lewis’ stirring eulogy for Jack Layton - The Globe and Mail
Stephen Lewis gave a very moving eulogy for Jack Layton at the funeral. The audience broke into long applause a number of times.

Here is the eulogy:

Never in our collective lifetime have we seen such an outpouring, so
much emotional intensity, from every corner of this country. There have
been occasions, historically, when we’ve seen respect and admiration but
never so much love, never such a shocked sense of personal loss.

Jack was so alive, so much fun, so engaged in daily life with so much
gusto, so unpretentious, that it was hard while he lived to focus on how
incredibly important that was to us, he was to us. Until he was so
suddenly gone, cruelly gone, at the pinnacle of his career.

To hear so many Canadians speak so open-heartedly of love, to see young
and old take chalk in hand to write without embarrassment of hope, or
hang banners from overpasses to express their grief and loss. It’s
astonishing.

Somehow Jack connected with Canadians in a way that vanquished the
cynicism that erodes our political culture. He connected whether you
knew him or didn’t know him, whether you were with him or against him.

Jack simply radiated an authenticity and honesty and a commitment to his
ideals that we know realize we’ve been thirsting for. He was so civil,
so open, so accessible that he made politics seem so natural and good as
breathing. There was no guile. That’s why everybody who knew Jack
recognized that the public man and the private man were synonymous.

But it obviously goes much deeper than that. Jack, I think, tapped into a
yearning, sometimes ephemeral, rarely articulated, a yearning that
politics be conducted in a different way, and from that difference would
emerge a better Canada.

That difference was by no means an end to rancour, an end to the
abusive, vituperative practice of the political arts. The difference was
also, and critically, one of policy – a fundamentally different way of
viewing the future of Canada.

His remarkable letter made it absolutely clear. This was a testament
written in the very throes of death that set out what Jack wanted for
his caucus, for his party, for young people, for all Canadians.

Inevitably, we fastened on those last memorable lines about hope,
optimism and love. But the letter was, at its heart, a manifesto for
social democracy. And if there was one word that might sum up Jack
Layton’s unabashed social democratic message, it would be generosity. He
wanted, in the simplest and most visceral terms, a more generous
Canada.

His letter embodies that generosity. In his very last hours of life he
wanted to give encouragement to others suffering from cancer. He wanted
to share a larger, bolder, more decent vision of what Canada should be
for all its inhabitants.

He talks of social justice, health care, pensions, no one left behind,
seniors, children, climate change, equality and again that defining
phrase, “a more inclusive and generous Canada.” All of that is entirely
consistent with Jack’s lifelong convictions. In those early days of
municipal politics in Toronto Jack took on gay and lesbian rights, HIV
and AIDS, housing for the homeless, the white ribbon campaign to fight
violence against women and consecrate gender equality once and for all.

And of course a succession of environmental innovations, bike lanes,
wind power, the Toronto atmospheric fund – and now Michael, his
progressive and talented son, as councillor can carry the torch forward.

And then came his tenure as president of the Canadian Federation of
Municipalities, where he showed that growing deftness of political touch
in uniting municipalities of all sizes and geographic locations,
winning their recognition of the preeminence of cities and the
invaluable pillar of the public sector. Jack made the leap to federal
politics look easy.

The same deeply held principles of social democracy that made him a
superb politician at the city level, as I know, transferred brilliantly
to federal politics. And also, from the many wonderful conversations we
had together, I know led him to a formidable commitment to
internationalism.

He was fearless in his positions once embraced. Thus, when he argued for
negotiations with the Taliban to bring the carnage in Afghanistan to an
end he was ridiculed but stood firm. And now it’s conventional wisdom. I
move to recall that Jack came to the New Democratic Party at the time
of the imposition of the War Measures Act, when tanks rolled into the
streets of Montreal and civil liberties were shredded, and when the
NDP’s brave opposition brought us to our nadir in public opinion.

But his convictions and his courage were intertwined – yet another
reason for celebrating Jack and for understanding the pain and sadness
with which his death has been received.

Above all – and his letter makes this palpably clear – Jack understood
that we are headed into even more perilous economic times. He wanted
Canadians to have a choice between what he described as the unfairness
of an economy that excludes so many from our collective wealth, and an
economy that would embrace equity, fairness, balance and creative
generosity.

This was the essence of the manifesto. That’s why he insists that we’re a
great country, but we can be a better one – a country of greater
equality, justice and opportunity. These were not rhetorical concepts to
Jack. They were the very core of his social democratic philosophy. He
was prepared to do ideological battle, but as all things with Jack there
was nothing impulsive or ill-considered.

He would listen as he always listened – he was a great listener – he
would synthesize thoughtfully as he always did, and he would choose a
political route that was dignified, pragmatic and principled. He was so
proud of his caucus and what they would do to advance the agenda of
social democracy.

He cultivated and mentored every member of that caucus, and as the country will see, that will speak volumes in the days ahead.

The victory in Quebec – and I will be followed by a eulogist in the
francophone language – the victory in Quebec was an affirmation of
Jack’s singular personal appeal, reinforced by Quebec’s support for
progressive values shared by so many Canadians. And his powerful belief
and trust in youth to forge the grand transformation to a better world
is by now legendary. Indeed, the reference to youth spawns a digression.

From time to time, Jack and I would meet in the corridors of my
foundation, where his supernaturally competent daughter Sarah works, and
we would invariably speak of our grandchildren. You cannot imagine – I
guess you saw it in the video – the radiating joy that glowed from Jack
as he talked of Sarah’s daughter, his granddaughter Beatrice, and when
he said as he often said that he wanted to create a better world for
Beatrice and all the other Beatrices to inherit, you instantly knew of
one of his strongest and most compelling motivations.

He was a lovely, lovely man. Filled with laughter and affection and
commitment. He was also mischievous and musical, possessed of normal
imperfections but deeply deserving of the love you have all shown. His
indelible romance with Olivia was beautiful to behold, and it sustained
them both.

When my wife and I met with the family a few hours after Jack died,
Olivia said, as she said in the video, that we must look forward to see
what we all can accomplish together.

I loved Jack’s goodness and his ideals in equal measure. Watching all of
you react so genuinely to his death, the thousands upon thousands who
lined up for hours to say a last goodbye in Ottawa and Toronto, it’s
clear that everyone recognized how rare and precious his character was.

We’re all shaken by grief but I believe we’re slowly being steadied by a
new resolve and I see that resolve in words written in chalk and in a
fresh determination on people’s faces. A resolve to honour Jack by
bringing the politics of respect for all, respect for the Earth and
respect for principle and generosity back to life.

My wife Michele reminded me of a perfect quote from the celebrated
Indian novelist, activist and feminist Arundhati Roy. Jack doubtless
knew it. He might have seen it as a mantra. “Another world is not only
possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day I can hear her breathing.”

Thank you Jack.

Link to video on Youtube.

A Response to Ms Christie Blatchford

A Response to Ms. Christie Blatchford « Joshua Hind: No Humble Opinions
Joshua responds to Christie's attack on Jack Layton on the day of his death with a version of Marc Antony's speech from Julius Caesar inserting Jack and Blatchford. Very well done.

A letter to Canadians from the Honourable Jack Layton

A letter to Canadians from the Honourable Jack Layton

August 20, 2011

Toronto, Ontario

Dear Friends,

Tens of thousands of Canadians have written to me in recent weeks to
wish me well. I want to thank each and every one of you for your
thoughtful, inspiring and often beautiful notes, cards and gifts. Your
spirit and love have lit up my home, my spirit, and my determination.

Unfortunately my treatment has not worked out as I hoped. So I am
giving this letter to my partner Olivia to share with you in the
circumstance in which I cannot continue.

I recommend that Hull-Aylmer MP Nycole Turmel continue her work as our interim leader until a permanent successor is elected.

I recommend the party hold a leadership vote as early as possible in
the New Year, on approximately the same timelines as in 2003, so that
our new leader has ample time to reconsolidate our team, renew our party
and our program, and move forward towards the next election.

A few additional thoughts:

To other Canadians who are on journeys to defeat cancer and to live
their lives, I say this: please don’t be discouraged that my own journey
hasn’t gone as well as I had hoped. You must not lose your own hope.
Treatments and therapies have never been better in the face of this
disease. You have every reason to be optimistic, determined, and focused
on the future. My only other advice is to cherish every moment with
those you love at every stage of your journey, as I have done this
summer.

To the members of my party: we’ve done remarkable things
together in the past eight years. It has been a privilege to lead the
New Democratic Party and I am most grateful for your confidence, your
support, and the endless hours of volunteer commitment you have devoted
to our cause. There will be those who will try to persuade you to give
up our cause. But that cause is much bigger than any one leader. Answer
them by recommitting with energy and determination to our work. Remember
our proud history of social justice, universal health care, public
pensions and making sure no one is left behind. Let’s continue to move
forward. Let’s demonstrate in everything we do in the four years before
us that we are ready to serve our beloved Canada as its next government.

To the members of our parliamentary caucus: I have been
privileged to work with each and every one of you. Our caucus meetings
were always the highlight of my week. It has been my role to ask a great
deal from you. And now I am going to do so again. Canadians will be
closely watching you in the months to come. Colleagues, I know you will
make the tens of thousands of members of our party proud of you by
demonstrating the same seamless teamwork and solidarity that has earned
us the confidence of millions of Canadians in the recent election.

To my fellow Quebecers: On May 2nd, you made an historic
decision. You decided that the way to replace Canada’s Conservative
federal government with something better was by working together in
partnership with progressive-minded Canadians across the country. You
made the right decision then; it is still the right decision today; and
it will be the right decision right through to the next election, when
we will succeed, together. You have elected a superb team of New
Democrats to Parliament. They are going to be doing remarkable things in
the years to come to make this country better for us all.

To young Canadians: All my life I have worked to make things
better. Hope and optimism have defined my political career, and I
continue to be hopeful and optimistic about Canada. Young people have
been a great source of inspiration for me. I have met and talked with so
many of you about your dreams, your frustrations, and your ideas for
change. More and more, you are engaging in politics because you want to
change things for the better. Many of you have placed your trust in our
party. As my time in political life draws to a close I want to share
with you my belief in your power to change this country and this world.
There are great challenges before you, from the overwhelming nature of
climate change to the unfairness of an economy that excludes so many
from our collective wealth, and the changes necessary to build a more
inclusive and generous Canada. I believe in you. Your energy, your
vision, your passion for justice are exactly what this country needs
today. You need to be at the heart of our economy, our political life,
and our plans for the present and the future.

And finally, to all Canadians: Canada is a great
country, one of the hopes of the world. We can be a better one – a
country of greater equality, justice, and opportunity. We can build a
prosperous economy and a society that shares its benefits more fairly.
We can look after our seniors. We can offer better futures for our
children. We can do our part to save the world’s environment. We can
restore our good name in the world. We can do all of these things
because we finally have a party system at the national level where there
are real choices; where your vote matters; where working for change can
actually bring about change. In the months and years to come, New
Democrats will put a compelling new alternative to you. My colleagues in
our party are an impressive, committed team. Give them a careful
hearing; consider the alternatives; and consider that we can be a
better, fairer, more equal country by working together. Don’t let them
tell you it can’t be done.

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear.
Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and
optimistic. And we’ll change the world.

All my very best,

Jack Layton

Harper's plans for the Senate will create a showdown against the provinces.

Senate showdown looms - thestar.com
On one side, there will be the Conservative government. On the other side will be the opposition parties (or, at least the NDP) and the provinces - many of which would like to abolish the Senate altogether (as the NDP would like to do).

Excerpts:
Ontario is poised to join Quebec in a constitutional showdown with
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his plans for Senate reform.

Quebec has already served notice
that it is preparing to challenge Harper’s go-it-alone approach to
changing the Senate — arguing that he can’t change a basic institution
of Parliament without the support of the provinces.

...

Such a battle would pit Harper’s majority government against Canada’s
two largest provinces and threaten to open up the kind of
constitutional quagmire that swallowed up the last Conservative majority
government in Canada in the 1980s and early 1990s.

It also could be a sign of a new frontier opening up in opposition to Harper’s Conservatives.

Harper’s main headaches were caused
by his federal political rivals when he had minority control in Ottawa
from 2006 to the recent election. But with a majority in Parliament,
easily able to pass his legislation, Harper may be forced to look
increasingly to the provinces for potential obstacles to his plans.

Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae, a
former Ontario premier, agrees that Harper is out on a constitutional
limb in trying to change the Senate without provincial consent.

“Look, the Senate is a child of the
Constitution of Canada. It doesn’t belong to Stephen Harper,” Rae said.
“It’s all nonsensical. The Senate, if there’s going to be reform, it has
to start with the provinces and the federal government sitting down and
trying to get to an answer. And that’s the beginning and the end of
it.”

Constitutional expert Ned Franks also calls the new legislation “dead in the water.”

“That one is sure to get shot down by
the Supreme Court because that’s a substantial reform and that can’t be
done without the consent of the provinces,” Franks told the Star’s Richard J. Brennan this week.

Ontario is now officially in favour
of abolishing the Senate — a position also championed by the NDP
opposition in Parliament, as well as several provinces such as Manitoba
and Nova Scotia.

“If the government is going to insist
on reforming the Senate, we think it should be abolished,” Smith said,
echoing Premier Dalton McGuinty’s recent declarations on that same
score.

...

NDP leader Jack Layton said Tuesday that the proposed reforms just
reinforce his party’s view that the Senate should be abolished. Just
before the last election, the NDP introduced a bill to hold a nationwide
referendum on scrapping the Senate.

“They are going to create a monster
here, because you will have at the end of the day … an elected body that
may or may not be elected, that the Prime Minister may or may not
accept the recommendations that come out of an election,” Layton said.
“It’s going to be one ugly scene and throughout that generation, we will
spend $100 million a year feeding this beast which will by and large
stand in the way of democracy in this country … It’s a disaster for
Canadian democracy, all wrapped up in the guise of Senate reform.”

Right-Wing Political Violence: More Terror, Less Coverage

Right-Wing Political Violence: More Terror, Less Coverage | Common Dreams
Excerpt:
On the morning of January 17 in Spokane, Washington, city workers found a backpack with a bomb that was set to go off along the route of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day parade. An FBI official (Spokane Spokesman Review, 1/19/11) called the bomb “a viable device that was very lethal and had the potential to inflict multiple casualties.” Another official told the Associated Press (1/19/11), “They haven’t seen anything like this in this country.… This was the worst device, and most intentional device, I’ve ever seen.”

On March 9, Kevin Harpham, a white supremacist with past links to the neo-Nazi National Alliance, was arrested and charged with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction and possessing an improvised explosive device. The device contained shrapnel dipped in rat poison, which can enhance bleeding (Hate Watch blog, 3/10/11), and was set on a park bench where its impact would be directed toward marchers.

The Spokane bomb plot received sparse coverage compared to that lavished on a far less dangerous plot attempted in Manhattan’s Times Square just a few months earlier. On May 1, 2010, a poorly made bomb incorporating Fourth of July firecrackers and nonexplosive fertilizer (Washington Post, 5/4/10) was allegedly set by Muslim-American Faisal Shahzad, who was reportedly outraged by civilian deaths from U.S. airstrikes (New York Times, 6/23/10). The device smoked, drawing the attention of a man who alerted police, but failed to go off.

However, network news shows considered the Times Square dud 14 times more newsworthy than the far more sophisticated Spokane bomb. According to the Nexis news media database, in the 10 weeks following the respective acts of terrorism, the Times Square story received 49 mentions on network evening news programs to the Spokane story’s three. (ABC World News didn’t mention the Spokane bomb a single time.)

Likewise, as Salon blogger Justin Elliott pointed out (2/19/11), the very real Spokane bomb plot received one-third the coverage given a November 2010 FBI sting operation in Portland, Oregon, that used a fake bomb, provided by an undercover agent, to ensnare a Somali-born Muslim teenager. On the scant coverage of the Spokane story, Elliot concluded, “The incident does not fit into the reigning narrative of Muslim terrorism.”

That narrative is fundamental to understanding the skewed coverage of domestic terrorism. For instance, on the eve of congressional hearings on domestic Muslim extremism, chaired by Rep. Peter King (R.-N.Y.), a Wall Street Journal editorial (3/11/11) attempted to justify the bigoted proceedings by misrepresenting a RAND Corporation study as finding that Muslims are responsible for virtually all U.S. domestic terrorism. What the 2010 RAND study actually found (FAIR Blog, 3/16/11) was that the vast majority of “homegrown” terrorist attackers—those of all ideologies who successfully carry out an attack—were not Muslims: Of the “83 terrorist attacks in the United States between 9/11 and the end of 2009, only three…were clearly connected with the jihadist cause.”

Running his own interference for King’s hearings, Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly (O’Reilly Factor, 3/8/11) responded to domestic terrorism expert Mark Potok’s statement that “our biggest domestic terror threat…pretty clearly comes from the radical right in this country,” by exclaiming: “Are you kidding me? The radical right? The last terror act assigned to them was the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995.”

To make his claim, O’Reilly had to overlook many right-wing domestic terrorist attacks that have happened since Oklahoma City, including two that appear to have been partly inspired by his Fox News colleague Glenn Beck, and one in which O’Reilly himself has been accused of whipping up hatred.

In reality, there have been dozens of violent domestic attacks perpetrated by right-wing extremists in the U.S. in recent years. On the Crooks and Liars blog (1/21/11), right-watcher David Neiwert keeps a running list of domestic terror attacks by rightist and anti-government extremists. Since August 2008 alone, Niewert’s list includes two dozen such attacks.

Another NDP minority government prediction

Another word from our NDP conscience ... - The Globe and Mail
Douglas Bell:
A while ago I passed along a correspondence from
Liam McHugh-Russell . That missive turned out to be somewhat, sort of,
kind of prescient. Just a reminder: Mr. McHugh-Russell ran against
Michael Ignatieff in Etobicoke-Lakeshore as the NDP candidate in 2006
and again in 2008. He’s a law student at McGill these days and a pretty
sharp cookie. So here’s his latest. It’s worth reading right to the end
because his conclusion is a stunner.


Liam McHugh-Russel:

So I watched CBC's The National and I have three things to say:

1. The NDP surge is the story, two nights in a row. The first eight
minutes of the show were about how well the NDP is doing and how the
other parties are responding. Some people said some things about Québec
and the Constitution – and the response? Jack looked calm, smooth and
energetic talking about how his priority is making people's lives
better. Harper looked whiny, harping on the point. Ignatieff seemed
passionate, but only got five seconds on TV and the point he made didn't
stick.

2. The At Issue panel treated the surge as a fait accompli; we are,
in other words, no longer at the point of shooting milk through our
nose. Remember that thing I said about non-belief turning into belief,
Jack is not Ed, the word on the street living in 1988, all that we need
to know is that we don't actually believe what we think we believe?
We're way past that point. The surge is real, people realize it's real,
the other parties realize its real, the press treats it as real, and it
was already real on the weekend, when people came out in
disproportionate numbers to vote in the advance poll, 33-per-cent more
than in 2008. If that translated on election day, we're talking 75 per
cent of the population voting rather than 58 per cent. So we're talking
new voters, no doubt. Ignatieff's message today is that the Liberal
voters who didn't come out in 2008 are back, and he's right – they are
back with a vengeance, and they're voting NDP.

3. The Insiders panel pretty much agreed with the At Issue panel:
the surge could be nudged but not reversed, but the other parties
haven't planned for this and they don't even have a plan to nudge them,
let alone reverse them. The numbers game, the candidates question: it's
just not going to make a difference. The At Issue panel and Peter both
talked about the surge building, the possibility that the NDP could end
up with even more votes, more seats than the current numbers show. Angus
Reid poll released a few moments ago? Shows the NDP at 30 per cent,
five back from Cons, 8 per cent ahead of the Liberals. What's going to
happen next? The NDP put up new ads in Montreal in bus shelters today
and the news cycle is going to be in a frenzy for the next three days
talking about wedding dresses and British republicans; Mansbridge isn't
even going to be in the country. In other words, with the election past
the last curve in the track, the NDP is not only ahead but still gaining
momentum and spending money.

Where does it all end? Check out people's first and second-place preference from today's EKOS poll:

I told you two weeks ago that the NDP would need just a glimmer of
hope to finally take off, and now they've gotten it. They're finally
heading toward their ceiling and that ceiling is high indeed: 130 per
cent the height of the Conservatives or the Liberals. You want a seat
count? NDP 115, Conservatives 110; Liberals 65; Bloc 18. In the end,
politics is possible and suddenly, so are these results. Me, I am still
rooting for the NDP because I believe they're serious about us having
the Canada we already have, except better. But it's also very exciting
that the result we do get five days from now will be determined by the
question I said mattered when this whole thing started: whether
Canadians believe it's possible for them to have the government they
want. And it seems increasingly like they can – and that they will.

***

These predictions are almost identical to my predictions 2 days ago:
NDP: 115
Con: 110
Lib: 55
Bloc: 28

NDP rise to within 3 points of the Conservatives

Grits set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto to NDP, says dramatic new Forum Research poll | The Hill Times - Canada's Politics and Government Newsweekly
The new Forum Research poll of 3,150 Canadians shows that the NDP have risen yet again and are now at 31%, 3 points behind the Conservatives at 34%.
They project that this will result in the following seats if an election were held today:
Conservatives: 137
NDP: 108
Liberals: 60
Bloc: 3

The NDP need to gain at least another 15 seats (and the Conservatives drop another 15 seats) for the NDP to reach minority government position. With the trend showing that they continue to rise in voter intention, it is a possibility.

Excerpt from the article:
If the voting intentions hold, the Liberals stand to lose at least four of the party’s Montreal fortresses to the NDP, including Westmount-Ville Marie, where former astronaut Marc Garneau is battling for re-election; Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, held by prominent Liberal Marlene Jennings since 1997; and perhaps even Papineau, another longtime Liberal seat where Justin Trudeau, son of Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau, who is struggling to keep a Commons seat. LaSalle-Émard, once held by former prime minister Paul Martin, is also set to fall to the NDP, Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. Incumbent Liberal Lise Zarac is fighting to win the riding.

Several Quebec Conservative seats and most Bloc Québécois seats are also set to be swamped by the surprising NDP wave in Quebec

An analysis based on the poll findings and voter intentions in key ridings across Canada show Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are set to lose three seats to the NDP in the Québec City region— Beauport-Limoilou, where Syvie Boucher, a prominent Tory, is fighting for re-election; Charlesbourg-Haute-Sainte-Charles, won by Daniel Petit, another Parliamentary secretary with the Harper government; and Pontiac, the West Quebec riding where one of Mr. Harper’s most high-profile MPs, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, is battling to win re-election. The Liberals are set to lose their long-held bastion of Hull-Aylmer across the Ottawa River from Parliament, held by Marcel Proulx, and Gatineau, where former Liberal MP Françoise Boisvin is set to oust Bloc Québécois incumbent Richard Nadeau.

In Ontario, although the NDP is set to win at least two Liberal seats in Toronto, Beaches-East York, held by Maria Minna, and Parkdale-High Park, where Liberal star Gerard Kenney is set to lose the riding back to New Democrat Peggy Nash, it is the Conservatives who are poised to gain from the Liberal implosion in the province. The poll results show the Conservatives are closing in on Eglinton-Lawrence, held by prominent Liberal Joe Volpe, a former leadership contender, since 1988, and at least four ridings from Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area.

In the Atlantic, Geoff Regan, the son of former Nova Scotia Liberal premier Gerald Regan, faces the prospect of losing his re-election bid in Halifax-West to the NDP. The NDP also stands to win South Shore-St. Margaret’s from Conservative Gerald Keddy and in Newfoundland and Labrador’s St. John’s-Mount Pearl, barely won by Liberal Siobhan Coady in 2008.

“With the NDP continuing to gain steam from coast to coast, and both the Liberal and Conservative parties’ support lagging, the key question now is whether the NDP have the ground troops to deliver their vote on election day,” Mr. Bozinoff said.

The results are based on an interactive voice response survey of 3,150 randomly-selected eligible voters across the country, on April 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 per cent 19 times out of 20.
The poll found the Conservatives have lost ground to the NDP in the Atlantic region, Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Why Layton's fit for office

Why Layton’s fit for office - The Globe and Mail
Brian Topp clears up some misconceptions and misunderstandings regarding Jack Layton and Quebec in Canada.

Layton's opponents have claimed "he sold his soul to Quebec separatists to obtain this [NDP lead in Quebec] result."

From the article:

A foolish thing to say, in the case of Michael Ignatieff. Mr. Ignatieff said substantially everything Mr. Layton has said on the question of Quebec’s constitutional status, essentially word-for-word, in 2006.

And a foolish thing to say, in the case of Stephen Harper – author of the House of Common’s “Quebec is a nation” resolution, flowing directly from Mr. Ignatieff’s 2006 statements.

So what is there is to say about this matter, one of many issues (by no means the most pressing) on the minds of those francophone Quebeckers, who are – maybe just maybe – a few days away from re-engaging with federal governance?

There is this: It remains true that the Quebec National Assembly has not ratified the 1982 amendments. This is an issue that will have to be addressed at some point. The time to address it is when we can be sure we will succeed.

There is this: One of the necessary preconditions to “succeeding” is having a new and better federal government that francophone Quebeckers see themselves in, and that is working on priorities they support.

There is this: In the 1998 reference case, the Supreme Court wrote the rulebook on any future referendum, should there be one but hopefully there won’t. Both then-Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard and then-prime minister Jean Chrétien welcomed this ruling at the time.

And there is this: Fewer Bloc MPs in Parliament is good for Quebec and good for the rest of Canada. Working to re-involve francophone Quebecers in the governance of Canada is what Canadians hope and expect an aspirant for prime minister to do. Acknowledging this issue, as Mr. Layton did when asked (as anyone campaigning in Quebec inevitably will be) is respectful of the views of francophone Quebeckers, and is therefore good nation-building.

Mr. Layton is making a remarkable contribution to Canada in this election by reaching out successfully to French-speaking Quebeckers – something that has eluded all other national leaders in Canada for over twenty years. He has addressed these issues responsibly and with due respect for Canada’s unity, our laws, our democracy and our respect for each other.

That’s what people who are fit for office do.

NDP Still Rising

Tories Lead in Canada, NDP Firmly in Second Place Due to Quebec Strength | Angus Reid Public Opinion
Although this is an on-line poll, and generally deemed not as accurate, it still seems in sync with the other polling trends and is very close to the April 25th EKOS poll results.

Conservatives: 35%
NDP: 30%
Liberals: 22%
Bloc: 7%
Green: 5%

The trend of the NDP support has been a on a continual rise for some time now, growing faster as we get closer to May 2nd. With this trend, we may even see the NDP tie or surpass the Conservatives.

In Ontario, one area where the NDP rise was slowest to start out of all the provinces, The NDP are now at 27%, closing in on the Liberals with 30%. The Conservatives still lead in Ontario with 38%. The NDP started this campaign with only about 16% support in Ontario.

***

Poll on this blog
Interesting results so far on the poll on my blog. Here is the seat projection (proportionately) from that poll:
NDP: 272 seats
Conservatives: 24 seats
Green: 12 seats
(no seats for Liberals or Bloc)

NDP vaults into 2nd place and closes in on the Conservatives

NDP leapfrogs Liberals to land in second spot in ‘astonishing’ twist | iPolitics
Support for the NDP continues to rise across the country, putting them in 2nd place with 28%, compared to the Liberals with 23.7% and the Conservatives 33.7% support. The seat projection from this would be 100 seats for the NDP. And, with a steady rising trend, it is possible we could see an NDP minority government, with the Liberals holding the balance of power.



The EKOS poll surveyed 3,004 adult Canadians, including 2,783 decided
voters, between April 22 and April 24, 2011. Results are considered
accurate within plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For a full report on the EKOS survey, including the poll questions, click here. The EKOS poll was a dual landline/cell phone survey from random sample.

The NDP, in EKOS polls, have risen from a low of 14% support since the election was called, to 28% - a rise of 14%. All the other parties have lost support, some more than others, but especially the Liberals and Bloc.

"The NDP rise is not a blip, but rather a steady progression throughout
the campaign that exploded last week and is now rocking most parts of
the country. And because the NDP leads as the second-choice pick for
voters, Graves said the growth potential may not be fully exhausted yet." - EKOS pollster Frank Graves.

See also:
Globe & Mail: NDP winning support on the right and left

NDP on the rise across Canada

Accidental Deliberations: A growing movement
Not only has the NDP risen to the lead in Quebec, but their numbers are rising across Canada. One poll shows them now pulling ahead of the Liberals into second place alone.
From above link:
In other words, all previous strategic-voting scaremongering is now
becoming as wrong in fact as it is in principle - both because the NDP
is finding itself in the strongest position to challenge the Cons across
the country, and because it may have a stronger baseline of expected
seats to build from. And the prospects for a major change for the better
in Ottawa are growing by the day.


Jumpin Jack Flash


Jack finds his groove, NDP in reach of official opposition, says new Forum Research poll
Excerpt:

Nationally, the survey gave the Conservative Party support from 36
per cent of decided and leaning voters, 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per
cent for the Liberal party, and six per cent each for the Green Party
and the Bloc Québécois. A separate Forum Research analysis, based partly
on ridings won and lost in the 2008 election, suggest the survey
results would give the Conservatives 149 of the 308 Commons seats if an
election were held today, with 71 seats for the NDP, 64 for the Liberals
and the Bloc Québécois would have 24 seats.

The poll also mined attitudes on one of the most controversial
aspects of this election—an endless barrage of television attack ads—and
found evidence the ads have affected voter opinion, although not in the
way the two main parties may have expected.

Fully 88 per cent of those surveyed indicated they had seen some campaign ads on television.

Significantly, 26 per cent said they felt the NDP has had the best
ads, followed by 23 per cent favouring Conservative ads and 14 per cent
who said Liberal ads were best.

Fully 12 per cent of the respondents said they had a change of heart
and switched voting preferences after seeing some of the ads. There, the
NDP enjoyed the largest gain in support, from 19 per cent who favoured
the party before seeing television ads to 31 per cent after seeing TV
ads. The Conservative party showed the largest loss, from 26 per cent to
14 per cent among voters whose minds changed after seeing some of the
television ads.

“These results, coupled with the steady rise in support for the NDP,
suggest its ad campaign may be providing a lift in support,” said Mr.
Bozinoff.

In Quebec, Mr. Layton’s native province, the poll found NDP support
has mushroomed to 34 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois second at 25 per
cent, the Liberals at 18 per cent, the Conservatives registering as a
preference for 16 per cent of voters and the Green Party with four per
cent.

“This has got the tinge of a mini-referendum on federalism,” said Mr.
Bozinoff, who predicted there is little doubt the Bloc Québécois,
sharing a common support base with the Parti Québécois, will “pull out
all the stops” in the final 10 days before the May 2 election.

In Ontario, the Conservatives received support from 42 per cent, the
Liberals were second, but with support from only 28 per cent, and the
NDP was third, with 20-per-cent support from decided and leaning voters.
The Green Party came in with support from eight per cent of the
respondents in the 106-seat province.

The survey gave the Conservatives 43-per-cent support in the GTA,
with the Liberal slipping to 25 per cent, its lowest level of support in
the seat-rich urban region since Forum Research began its tracking the
weekend Mr. Harper called the election.

In British Columbia, where NDP growth can eat away at both the
Conservatives and the Liberals, the party’s support has crept up to 31
per cent. The Conservatives are in first place in the province, with 38
per cent, and the Liberals lag at 19 per cent. The Green party received
support from seven per cent of those who were reached in B.C.

The Conservatives retain their lock on Alberta, with 58 per cent
support, and the other parties behind at levels under 20 per cent. But
in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives lead with 45 per
cent, the NDP is second with 25 per cent, and the Liberals statistically
tied at 23 per cent. In that province, if NDP growth continues, the
party could win back at least one or two of the seats it held up to
2004.

In the Atlantic, the Forum Research survey found the Conservatives
and Liberals in a virtual tie, with 33 per cent and 32 per cent support
respectively. But the poll found the NDP not far back, at 22 per cent,
and the Green Party at nine per cent.

ipolitics.ca - Frank Graves: Emergence of NDP alters national strategies
Excerpts:

With the countdown on, Election 41 has entered surprising new territory.

A new poll conducted by EKOS Research and iPolitics.ca, along with a growing number of other polls using a range of methodology, are revealing unexpected developments that few if any pundits would have dared predict.

Building on a solid if unspectacular rise, Jack Layton’s NDP are scaling heights they’ve not enjoyed since Ed Broadbent’s salad days. In fact, the party may be closer than ever to tasting the nectar of real power at the federal level.

First the basic numbers: The Conservatives continue to hold on to a significant lead at 34.4 points, short of the last election and down from our last poll where they were 37.4. It is highly likely that this shift is a real decline and the fact is that for both frontrunning parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, the trend lines are not promising.

Figuring out what this means for the next Parliament will undoubtedly tax the imagination of journalists and academics, and the algorithms of seat forecast models will get a workout as they try to predict what might happen if trends stabilize where they are today, or keep shifting toward an unprecedented three-way power split.
...
On March 24, the NDP stood at 14.2. Since then, the progression from also-ran to contender has been steady — from around 17 points to 20. In this poll, they’re at 24.9, basically tied with the Liberals and just nine points shy of the Conservatives.

What happens next is uncertain. While the NDP have grown, they have held on to a major advantage on second choice and now lead all parties by a large margin in terms of their theoretical ceiling (around 50 points).

NDP Lead in Quebec

NDP surges to top spot in Quebec,Bloc Québécois campaign flagging | iPolitics
Montreal Gazette: NDP surge to the lead in Quebec: poll

The latest polls in Quebec by CROP and EKOS both put the NDP in the lead now over all the other parties. If this carries over to election day, it will be an historic moment for Quebec, the NDP and politics in Canada.

Ekos:
NDP: 31%
Bloc: 23.7%
LPC: 20.6%
CPC: 16.9%

CROP:
NDP: 36%
Bloc: 31%
CPC: 17%
LPC: 13%

Such momentum can only help to push the NDP higher in the polls across the rest of Canada. At the rate they are rising, we may even see a minority NDP government with a Conservative opposition.

More news and posts on this topic:
Cyberpresse.ca : The NDP took the lead in Quebec
(Note: this is the google translated page)

Mike Watkins dot ca: NDP Lead in Quebec

Blunt Objects: NDP officially becomes the new Bloc Quebecois



Cyberpresse.ca : Seriously, good Jack!
(also translated by google here)

NDP - The best party to fix and improve healthcare in Canada, AND the most trusted

It’s time to fix health care – in Northern Ontario and across Canada
...

Layton says Michael Ignatieff isn’t the solution.

“With less than two weeks left in the election, Mr. Ignatieff now
says health care is a priority. But just three weeks ago, he released a
platform that barely mentioned health care,” said Layton.

“I know where I stand. And unlike Mr. Ignatieff, I’m fighting every day to protect health care.”

The New Democrat plan will reduce wait times by training 1,200 new
doctors and more than 6,000 nurses; bring home care and long-term care
under the Canada Health Act; and introduce an affordable strategy to
lower prescription drug costs.

Accidental Deliberations: Trusted
In case there's any particular doubt why the Libs have changed the subject from health care, Ipsos Reid offers the strongest answer yet:

Forty-six
per cent of likely voters said they trust Jack Layton and the NDP most
to manage health care in Canada, according to a new poll by Ipsos Reid.
Thirty per cent of respondents said Stephen Harper and the Conservative
party were most trusted and 20 per cent reported trusting Michael
Ignatieff and the Liberal party more.

Now, this isn't the first time the NDP has ranked ahead
of the Libs on health care among other issues - so there should have
been plenty of warning signs even before the Libs developed their
campaign plan. But the new polling offers a rather compelling signal
that any focus on health care by the Libs would play right into the
NDP's hands - and that likely explains the Libs' flailing to try to
drive the election campaign in yet another direction.

(Hint:
However proud the Libs are that their leader is roughly as popular as
the man they consider unfit for office, any attempt to build a cult of
Iggy will run into similar problems.)

See also:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+trusted+less+than+Tories+health+care+poll/4650291/story.html

Interview with NDP leader Jack Layton on The National

CBC News - The National - In Depth & Analysis - Interview with Jack Layton
Peter Mansbridge presents his interview with the leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, Jack Layton, on Monday, April 18.

NDP continue to rise in the polls

CTV 2011 Federal Election | Poll shows NDP numbers moving up in Ont., B.C.
The NDP continues to rise in the polls -mainly in BC, Ontario, and in Quebec (which the article forgot to mention).
The other parties are either stagnating or dropping.

On election day, vote for the party that shares, and will actually fight for, your values and beliefs. Vote NDP.

NDP support rising after the debates

NDP trends up after debate while Liberal support stays stagnant - The Globe and Mail
Excerpt:

The three-day rolling poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail,
has not picked up the full impact of the two leaders’ debates. But it
does register the first night of the English debate in which Mr. Layton
was seen to have done well.

Pollster Nik Nanos attributes two other factors to Mr. Layton’s gains: health care and Mr. Ignatieff.

Health care continues to be the number-one issue of concern in this
election; the Nanos poll is showing it trending upward day after day.

And, as Mr. Nanos points out, the NDP have a lot of credibility when it comes to health care, accessibility and universality.


See also:
Accidental Deliberations: French debate followup

and

NDP poised to take Gatineau

Jack Layton shines in English Debate

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Four+debate+viewers+think+Harper+poll/4605023/story.html
In an Ipsos-Reid survey of 2,615 English speaking Canadian adults who watched the debate, 42% thought Harper won, 25% thought Layton won, 23% thought Ignatieff won and only 2% thought Duceppe won.
Another finding was that of the 4 leaders, peoples impressions of Jack Layton improved the most

Excpert:
Layton appeared to make the biggest gains in the debate, exceeding the
expectations of many Canadians. Prior to the debate, only 12 per cent of
people thought he would win. A majority of viewers, 55 per cent, said
their impressions of him improved, while only 14 per cent said their
impressions worsened.

Accidental Deliberations: Canada 2011 - English Debate Wrapup
Excerpts:
...only Layton looks to have emerged having accomplished what he needed to -
both in terms of suggesting something positive to go with challenges to
the Harper Cons' style of governance, and more importantly in terms of
having baited Stephen Harper into some key mistakes which will help to
feed the rest of the campaign.
...
... Layton managed to use his time in the health care debate to set out
strong distinctions between the NDP and the other national parties -
both in its commitment to keeping funding going in the long run, and in
its plan to make improvements before the 2014 round of negotiations with
the provinces.

Perhaps more surprisingly, though, Layton also
got Harper to show a few more cards than he probably wanted to. Rather
than shying away from the issue of privatization, Layton challenged
Harper directly. And Harper allowed that he sees no problem whatsoever
with "alternative delivery mechanisms" - leaving himself vulnerable on
the question of what changes he's prepared to endorse while funding the
provinces, and how those figure to alter a system that serves as a point
of pride for Canadians.


Jack Layton shows real Canadian Leadership in English language debate

OTTAWA - Jack Layton dominated the English Language debate
tonight, clearly articulating the concerns of Canadian families and
proving he’s the only Leader who can take on Stephen Harper.

Addressing the issues that matter to Canadians, Layton spoke about
the need to create jobs, help small business and give families a break.
Layton cited Harper’s policies of deregulation and corporate tax
giveaways as reasons “why people can't make ends meet, why so many
people are still out of work.” Turning to Stephen Harper Layton said:
“Your policies don't address them.”

Layton pointed to Harper’s dismal record on fixing Ottawa after years
of Liberal entitlement and scandal. "You've become what you used to
oppose...you said you'd clean up Ottawa from scandals and now we've got
the most closed, secretive government we've pretty well ever had,"
Layton scolded Harper.

Layton also put Michael Ignatieff’s record under the microscope. “You
don’t show up for 70 per cent of the votes. For most Canadians, if you
don’t show up for work, you can’t expect a promotion.”

"There you were, supporting Mr. Harper on this massive program
corporate tax cuts, and suddenly you're against them. You're Mr.
Harper's best friend,” said Layton. “If not for you, I’d have to lend
him my crutch."

Layton also scored the signature jab of the night by calling Stephen
Harper’s crime policies a “hashtag fail” a twitter reference that
brought down the house and set the social media world all atwitter.

 

Stevie looked like he was on drugs, Duceppe won for facial expressions, Iggy didn't land that curcial punch, Layton won.
Excerpts:
Loved how Layton jabbed Steve with the crooks all sitting in senate
...
Sure Jack at the last few seconds of that segment had him [Ignatieff] on the ropes about absenteism
...
Layton did very well and was the winner of the evening.    He was calm, scored some jabs and was consistent.


The Debate: Canadian Values Win
Excerpt:
The other issues I particularly noticed were the ones that were only
raised by Jack Layton, electoral reform, particularly proportional
representation and aboriginal issues.

Jack also gets some points for language, being the only leader to use the term ""hashtag" in the debate and "commentariat" during the post debate scrum.


Federal Electoral Debate 2011: The Blather where We All Come To Gather
Excpert:
Layton was very good, probably the best he's ever been (and Layton's a
strong debater). His sections on immigration were excellent. His "you're
all the same" attack lines on Ignatieff/Harper were less so, but the
NDP candidate has to do that. Overall Layton came across as extremely
policy-oriented, which isn't his usual strength—he's an attack dog first
and always has been.

Canadians' impressions of Jack Layton improved after watching the debate

Four in 10 debate viewers think Harper won: poll

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global National in the half-hour immediately following the debate, found that 42 per cent of viewers thought Harper won, followed by 25 per cent who thought Layton won. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was victorious in the eyes of 23 per cent of viewers, while only two per cent of viewers thought Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe won.

Layton appeared to make the biggest gains in the debate, exceeding the expectations of many Canadians. Prior to the debate, only 12 per cent of people thought he would win. A majority of viewers, 55 per cent, said their impressions of him improved, while only 14 per cent said their impressions worsened.

...
The pre-debate survey was conducted among 2,615 English-speaking
Canadian adults. The post-debate survey was conducted among 2,365
English-speaking Canadian adults who watched the debate. The poll has an
estimated margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for
the pre-debate survey and plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for the
mid-debate survey, 19 times out of 20.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/Four+debate+viewers+think+Harper+poll/4605023/story.html#ixzz1JNdYVmzC