Thursday, 21 April 2011

NDP on the rise across Canada

Accidental Deliberations: A growing movement
Not only has the NDP risen to the lead in Quebec, but their numbers are rising across Canada. One poll shows them now pulling ahead of the Liberals into second place alone.
From above link:
In other words, all previous strategic-voting scaremongering is now
becoming as wrong in fact as it is in principle - both because the NDP
is finding itself in the strongest position to challenge the Cons across
the country, and because it may have a stronger baseline of expected
seats to build from. And the prospects for a major change for the better
in Ottawa are growing by the day.

Jumpin Jack Flash
Layton 2nd place.jpg

Jack finds his groove, NDP in reach of official opposition, says new Forum Research poll

Nationally, the survey gave the Conservative Party support from 36
per cent of decided and leaning voters, 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per
cent for the Liberal party, and six per cent each for the Green Party
and the Bloc Québécois. A separate Forum Research analysis, based partly
on ridings won and lost in the 2008 election, suggest the survey
results would give the Conservatives 149 of the 308 Commons seats if an
election were held today, with 71 seats for the NDP, 64 for the Liberals
and the Bloc Québécois would have 24 seats.

The poll also mined attitudes on one of the most controversial
aspects of this election—an endless barrage of television attack ads—and
found evidence the ads have affected voter opinion, although not in the
way the two main parties may have expected.

Fully 88 per cent of those surveyed indicated they had seen some campaign ads on television.

Significantly, 26 per cent said they felt the NDP has had the best
ads, followed by 23 per cent favouring Conservative ads and 14 per cent
who said Liberal ads were best.

Fully 12 per cent of the respondents said they had a change of heart
and switched voting preferences after seeing some of the ads. There, the
NDP enjoyed the largest gain in support, from 19 per cent who favoured
the party before seeing television ads to 31 per cent after seeing TV
ads. The Conservative party showed the largest loss, from 26 per cent to
14 per cent among voters whose minds changed after seeing some of the
television ads.

“These results, coupled with the steady rise in support for the NDP,
suggest its ad campaign may be providing a lift in support,” said Mr.

In Quebec, Mr. Layton’s native province, the poll found NDP support
has mushroomed to 34 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois second at 25 per
cent, the Liberals at 18 per cent, the Conservatives registering as a
preference for 16 per cent of voters and the Green Party with four per

“This has got the tinge of a mini-referendum on federalism,” said Mr.
Bozinoff, who predicted there is little doubt the Bloc Québécois,
sharing a common support base with the Parti Québécois, will “pull out
all the stops” in the final 10 days before the May 2 election.

In Ontario, the Conservatives received support from 42 per cent, the
Liberals were second, but with support from only 28 per cent, and the
NDP was third, with 20-per-cent support from decided and leaning voters.
The Green Party came in with support from eight per cent of the
respondents in the 106-seat province.

The survey gave the Conservatives 43-per-cent support in the GTA,
with the Liberal slipping to 25 per cent, its lowest level of support in
the seat-rich urban region since Forum Research began its tracking the
weekend Mr. Harper called the election.

In British Columbia, where NDP growth can eat away at both the
Conservatives and the Liberals, the party’s support has crept up to 31
per cent. The Conservatives are in first place in the province, with 38
per cent, and the Liberals lag at 19 per cent. The Green party received
support from seven per cent of those who were reached in B.C.

The Conservatives retain their lock on Alberta, with 58 per cent
support, and the other parties behind at levels under 20 per cent. But
in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives lead with 45 per
cent, the NDP is second with 25 per cent, and the Liberals statistically
tied at 23 per cent. In that province, if NDP growth continues, the
party could win back at least one or two of the seats it held up to

In the Atlantic, the Forum Research survey found the Conservatives
and Liberals in a virtual tie, with 33 per cent and 32 per cent support
respectively. But the poll found the NDP not far back, at 22 per cent,
and the Green Party at nine per cent. - Frank Graves: Emergence of NDP alters national strategies

With the countdown on, Election 41 has entered surprising new territory.

A new poll conducted by EKOS Research and, along with a growing number of other polls using a range of methodology, are revealing unexpected developments that few if any pundits would have dared predict.

Building on a solid if unspectacular rise, Jack Layton’s NDP are scaling heights they’ve not enjoyed since Ed Broadbent’s salad days. In fact, the party may be closer than ever to tasting the nectar of real power at the federal level.

First the basic numbers: The Conservatives continue to hold on to a significant lead at 34.4 points, short of the last election and down from our last poll where they were 37.4. It is highly likely that this shift is a real decline and the fact is that for both frontrunning parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, the trend lines are not promising.

Figuring out what this means for the next Parliament will undoubtedly tax the imagination of journalists and academics, and the algorithms of seat forecast models will get a workout as they try to predict what might happen if trends stabilize where they are today, or keep shifting toward an unprecedented three-way power split.
On March 24, the NDP stood at 14.2. Since then, the progression from also-ran to contender has been steady — from around 17 points to 20. In this poll, they’re at 24.9, basically tied with the Liberals and just nine points shy of the Conservatives.

What happens next is uncertain. While the NDP have grown, they have held on to a major advantage on second choice and now lead all parties by a large margin in terms of their theoretical ceiling (around 50 points).

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