Saturday, 30 April 2011

Minimum to Maximum Seat Projections

Here are my minimum to maximum seat projections based on polling data by each riding from April 28-30 polls from Nanos, EKOS, and Decima

Con: 114 - 151
NDP:102 - 138
Lib: 43 -70
Bloc: 0 - 6
Green: 0 - 1

Minimum = seats where, based on the above polls mentioned, the party has a good lead over the other parties.
Maximum = add in all the seats where the party is in a tight race with other parties. There are about 49 tight races across the country.

As you can see, we will end up with either a Conservative or NDP minority government, with one of those parties forming the official opposition. The Liberals will fall back to 3rd place, and the Bloc will become almost non-existent (it even looks like Gilles may loose his seat!). Elizabeth May is in a very tight race for her Green Party seat where so far the Conservatives are slightly leading.

If the NDP surge continues at the pace it has been going in the past few days, it will be a very tight race for who wins the most seats - NDP or Conservatives. If the surge increases even more, then we will definitely have an NDP minority government.

1 comment:

Atlanta Roofing said...

Truthfully, I'd like to see the NDP get a crack as the official opposition. I'm curious to see how and where they would make concessions on their ideologies, as is necessary when applying ideals to practical situations. I'm not especially hopeful, but I am curious.