Friday, 29 April 2011

New Seat Projections as relating to the NDP surge

Here are my seat projections based on polling data from the EKOS and Nanos polls of April 27 and 28 only.

These projections are based on 3 different scenarios regarding the NDP surge.

1) If the surge levels off (at the April 28th level):

Con: 124
NDP: 118
Lib: 56
Bloc: 10

2) If the surge keeps going along similar to how it has been the past week:

NDP: 124
Con: 123
Lib: 54
Bloc: 7

3) If the surge rate increases significatly:
(this would mean if all the tight 2 or 3 way races (as seen April 27-28) that include the NDP would all go to the NDP)

NDP: 146
Con: 110
Lib: 48
Bloc: 4

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