NDP Now Has A Stable Lead And Is In Minority Government Territory

3 new polls were released today (Environics, Forum, Ipsos Reid), all confirming that the NDP has a stable and comfortable lead over the other parties.

The Environics poll was in the field earlier and over a longer period (June 3-18), so it shows the older trend when the 3 parties were virtually tied. The other polls were more recently in the field, both ending June 23rd, and show a trend of the NDP being more in the lead.

The table below shows the NDP rise from April to now (comparing the April average to the average of the most recent 3 polls mentioned above).

Region	April	June (latest 3)	change
Atl	19%	26%	7%
QC	26%	38%	12%
ON	19%	30%	11%
MB&SK	16%	34%	18%
AB	23%	31%	8%
BC	21%	41%	20%

The NDP has benefited from the Alberta election of the NDP, the backlash to the Liberal party support of Bill C-51, as well as the growing realization Canadians have that Thomas Mulcair and the NDP are better prepared to take on the job of governing than Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party and now seem to be the best bet to knock out the Harper government. And, I would say that the policies and records of the parties are definitely having an effect here too.

3 key provinces where the NDP must do well are Quebec, Ontario and BC (the provinces with the most seats).

In Quebec, looking at the polls right after Gilles Duceppe took over the leadership of the Bloc, there was a bump for the Bloc, mainly at the expense of the NDP. But the most recent polls show the numbers resetting slightly, going back in favour of the NDP. I would say the NDP has a stable lead in Quebec and will most likely at least get about the same number of seats there as last election, if not more.

In BC, the NDP has continued to rise in the polls and now commands a very strong lead.

In Ontario, we still have pretty much a 3-way tie. The NDP support has come up 11% and stayed there. If the NDP can break into a significant lead in Ontario, like in Quebec and BC, they will definitely be in the running for a majority government in October.

The latest seat projections show a definite NDP minority.

An aggregate of the latest Ipsos Reid, Angus Reid and EKOS polls projects:
NDP 130 seats
Conservatives 119 seats
Liberals 86 seats
Bloc 2 seats
Green 1 seat

And Forum, from their latest poll ending June 23rd, projects:
NDP 149 seats
Conservatives 116 seats
Liberals 65 seats
Bloc 3 seats
Green 1 seat

If things stay about how they are now, we will see an NDP minority government. But, I think if the NDP make more gains in Ontario, we will see an NDP majority government.

A Sleeping Ontario Awakens

EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.)

Probably the most significant number in the latest poll is the position of the NDP in Ontario. It has been pretty obvious that the NDP are going to hold onto their seats in Quebec. And, they have remained steadily competitive in BC. The key now to the election lies in vote-rich Ontario. For the NDP to get enough seats to form the next government, they need to get a lot of seats in Ontario. But, the NDP has not done well yet in Ontario. Until now...

If you look at the latest and previous recent Ekos polls, you see the NDP has come from a distant 3rd to now being tied in first with the Conservatives in Ontario. The trend is up for the NDP in most of the provinces. But pulling into first place in Ontario means a lot more seats. And, a lot more seats for the NDP could spell an NDP majority government.

In the last election, the NDP reached about 27% support in Ontario. Currently, they are 4 points above this and the trend seems like their support will continue to rise in Ontario. I'm sure that besides the Harper government history, the federal Liberals supporting Bill C-51 (among many other Conservative policies/bills), and the Wynne government souring (looking even more conservative than the Harris PCs now) are giving a boost to the NDP. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next while in Ontario. I believe this is where the votes will decide between a Harper minority government and an NDP minority or majority government.

Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.

Today, Ipsos came out with this headline:

Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally 

Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compared with the previous Ipsos polls, this is pretty misleading. It would imply that the NDP are not doing well or have not made any significant gains in the West.

When we look at the Ipsos numbers, we can see that the NDP have made significant gains, especially in Alberta in the West.

NDP support as shown in Ipsos polls Feb-May 2015

	Feb 2015.	Apr 2015.	May 2015.	Overall change	Apr to May change
BC	21%	32%	34%	+13	+2
AB	16%	23%	31%	+15	+8
SK & MB	27%	21%	23%	-4	+2
ON	23%	19%	24%	+1	+5
QC	27%	34%	41%	+14	+7
Atlantic	26%	19%	21%	-5	+2

It looks to me like the Orange wave has hit not only Quebec, where the NDP has gained 14 points since February, but also BC and Alberta, where they gained 13 and 15 points since February.
Even comparing April to May, we see that NDP support still rose significantly in Alberta. The rise in NDP support, as you can see by these numbers, has been greatest in Alberta (15 points since Feb, 8 points since April), even greater than in Quebec.

A more accurate headline might be: 3 Main Parties All Tied As The NDP Makes Significant Gains At The Expense Of Both The Liberals And Conservatives. 

Overall, from Feb. to May, the NDP rose 7%, while the Conservatives dropped 2% and the Liberals dropped 3%

By themselves, these overall changes may not seem too significant. But, the fact that the NDP is picking up support from both Conservatives and Liberals spells trouble for these 2 parties.

NDP Lead Over The Conservatives Growing

The last 3 federal polls show the NDP consistently in the lead, ahead of the Conservatives (1 Forum and 2 Harris-Decima polls). The latest Harris-Decima poll has the NDP lead increasing. 

In Ontario, where the NDP will have to have major growth in order to form the next government, we see the NDP holding above 30%, while the Conservative support continues to erode - much of it going over to Liberal and Green.

The Conservatives maintain a strong lead in Alberta, but in the Prairies, the NDP are gaining on them and are now in a close 2nd.

Poll standings:
Canada
NDP 34%
Con 30%
Lib 20%
Green 8%
Bloc 7%

Ontario
NDP 31%
Con 32%
Lib 28%
Green 7%

Quebec
NDP 38%
Con 12%
Lib 14%
Green 7%
Bloc 27%

BC
NDP 39%
Con 32%
Lib 14%
Green 13%

Alberta
NDP 17%
Con 55%
Lib 14%
Green 12%

Prairies
NDP 39%
Con 43%
Lib 11%
Green 6%

Atlantic
NDP 44%
Con 23%
Lib 30%
Green 3%

This poll had a sample size of 2018, which has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

See also:
Toronto Star: NDP gaining support in traditional Tory areas, poll shows

Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

Party - March 30 - April 25 - change

NDP - 34% - 36% - +2%

Con - 36% - 33% - -3%
Lib  - 19% - 22% - +3%
Green - 5% - 2% - -3%
Bloc - 5% - 6% - +1%


Leader Popularity - March 30 - April 25 - change

Mulcair - 32% - 41% - +9%

Harper - 34% - 34% - no change
Rae     - 36% - 35% - -1%

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib  - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1


Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

Party - Feb. 29 - April 18 - change
NDP - 25% - 32% - +7%
Con  - 36% - 35% - -1%
Lib   - 30% - 23% - -7%
Green - 3% - 4% - +1%
Bloc   - 5% - 4% - -1%

Leader - Feb 29 - April 18 - change

Leader Trustworthiness
Turmel - 7% - Mulcair - 20% - +13%

Harper - 32% - 20% - -12%

Rae - 20% - 14% - -6%

Leader Competence
Turmel - 6% - Mulcair - 17% - +11%

Harper - 38% - 24% - -14%

Rae - 19% - 12% - -7%

Leader Vision for Canada
Turmel - 8% - Mulcair - 17% - +9%

Harper - 33% - 22% - -11%

Rae - 16% - 11% - -5%

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

Forum Research latest poll results
Nanos latest poll results
News articles on these results from The Toronto Star, CBC, The National Post, The Globe & Mail.

4th Poll In A Month Has NDP Tied With Conservatives

A Léger Marketing poll for The Gazette and Le Devoir April 2-4 shows the following support among decided voters:
NDP 33%
Conservatives 32%
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
[Bloc not listed but most likely about 6-7% nationally]


In Quebec:
NDP 47% (up 4 points since the election - up 19 points here since Thomas Mulcair was elected NDP leader)
Bloc 29%
Conservatives 10%
Liberals 10%

Which of the party leaders would make the best Prime Minister?:

don't know/refused 38%

Stephen Harper 25%

Thomas Mulcair 20%

Bob Rae 12%

Elizabeth May 5%

This is the 4th poll in a month that has the NDP and Conservatives tied (See here and here).

From the Montreal Gazette article:

“We see that support for the Conservatives is ... down nearly eight points since the last election,” he said. “So it’s a fairly significant drop for them.”

The Conservatives’ tumble began a couple of months ago, he said, adding the timing coincides with public discontent over such things as revelations of fraudulent robocalls pretending to come from Elections Canada and, just this week, revelations of a major cost overrun in the F-35 fighter jet program that was kept quiet before the last election.

...

The NDP finds its strongest support in three regions: Quebec, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia. 

...

Not only has support for the Conservatives dropped nationally since last year’s election victory, the Léger poll also finds that support for the NDP in Quebec has rebounded “in spectacular fashion” since January – beyond even its 2011 election results – since the party chose Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair as its new leader in late March. Support for the party has shot up 19 points since January, Dallaire said.

The NDP scores 47 per cent of support in Quebec in this poll, which is higher than the party’s 42.9 per cent share of the vote in the province in the 2011 election. 

...

3 Polls Affirm NDP Tied With Conservatives

The other day I wrote about 2 polls that showed the NDP tied with Conservatives for support. A third poll with more recent data affirms this trend. Harris-Decima has released their poll results (March 22-April 2) that show:

National support:
Conservatives 34%
NDP 32%
(a statistical tie between the NDP and the Conservatives)
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
Bloc 6%

The NDP are leading in BC (44%), Quebec (39%), and Atlantic Canada (36%). The 2 regions that the NDP lead in all three polls are BC and Quebec.

Some other numbers of note from the poll:

• The NDP has surged back in front in Quebec. Here, they stand at 39%, to 24% for the BQ, 14% for the Liberals, 14% for the Conservatives, and 8% for the Greens.
• The Conservatives are well in front in Ontario. The Conservatives stand at 41%, to 26% for the NDP, 24% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.
• The NDP holds a strong lead in BC. Here, they stand at 44%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 13% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.
• The Conservatives remain in front on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 45%, to 34% for the NDP, 13% for the Liberals, and 7% for the Greens. In Alberta the Conservatives are at 54%, to 19% for the NDP, 16% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.
• In Atlantic Canada, the NDP stands at 36%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 30% for the Liberals, and 3% for the Greens.

All of these polls show an overall trend when compared to the election: the Conservatives loosing ground, the NDP gaining ground, the Liberals stagnating and the Bloc and Green bouncing back slightly.

NDP Tied With Conservatives, And, Mulcair Doing Well

Two poll results from March (early March and then just after Mulcair won the leadership of the NDP), by Environics in early March and by Forum in late March, show the NDP tied with the Conservatives.

The Environics poll from March 6-18, 2012, had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30% each (a drop of 10% for the Conservatives). The Liberals were at 20%

The Forum poll from March 26-27, 2012 - just after Mulcair's first couple of days in Parliament as party leader , had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 35% each and the Liberals at 19% (a drop of 3% for the Conservatives, a rise of 7% for the NDP and a drop of 6% for the Liberals,  since the last Forum poll a month ago).

More details on the recent Forum poll with comparisons to their previous poll:

Most effective opposition:
NDP 40% (up from 32%)
Liberals 22% (down from 30%)

Approval rating of each leader (virtually tied):
Stephen Harper 34%
Thomas Mulcair 32%
Bob Rae 32%

Disapproval rating of each leader:
Thomas Mulcair: 22%
Bob Rae: 41%
Stephen Harper: 58%


26% say they are more likely to vote for the NDP now that Thomas Mulcair is the party leader. This includes 23% Liberal supporters, 8% Green party supporters, 40% Bloc supporters and 5% Conservative supporters.

Seat projections from this poll compared to seats at election time:
Conservatives: 151 (155)
NDP: 120 (103)
Liberals 25 (34)
Bloc 11 (4)
Green 1 (1)
This would result in a minority Conservative government.

Support for joint nomination meetings is dropping compared to a month ago:
NDP supporters 51% (59%)
Liberal supporters 50% (60%)

The NDP are leading in Quebec, The Prairies, and in BC.

Toronto Mayoral Race: The latest statistics

Why Rob Ford hasn't won the mayoral race just yet
The author of this article does have a valid point about how the statistics of the demographics are a bit skewed, but, there are some other factors.

She mentions that there is a disproportionate amount of people over 50, and homeowners in the demographics of the poll. But, it is important to add more weight to these groups since they turn out more for elections all the time.

And, there are the 25% undecided. They will play a big part as they start to become decided over the next month.

NDP on the Rise

According to the latest Environics poll (of 2,047 Canadians), the NDP's popularity is on the rise.
The significant areas are:

Atlantic Canada +6% , where they are virtually in a 3-way tie with the other 2 main parties with 30% support, vs 29% Conservative and 35% Liberal

Quebec +5% to 17% (tied with the Liberals in 3rd place)

Saskatchewan +5% to 27% - second place to the Conservatives with 39%

However, the NDP dropped by 11 points in Manitoba.

Also, Jack Layton is:
in 2nd place for Best Choice for Prime Minister (19% vs 37% for Stephan Harper)
and has the highest approval rating for leaders (56% vs 52% for Stephan Harper)

The NDP is up 2 points overall (largest rise for any party since the last poll) and the Conservatives are down 4 points (largest drop for any party since the last poll), since the last poll in June 2007

Good News for NDP in the Polls

The latest Decima poll results show the NDP support up to 18%, while the Conservatives have dropped to 30%, virtually tied with the Liberals at 29%. The Greens are at 11% and the Bloc is at 8%.

The NDP had dropped down to about 13% earlier this year, but support for them has been slowly rising since.

Standings at the last election were:
Conservatives: 36.3%
Liberals: 30.2%
NDP: 17.5%
Bloc: 10.5%
Green: 4.5%

What the Hell indeed!

CTV post-budget survey actually took place before the budget was announced.

See here.