Friday 5 June 2015

A Sleeping Ontario Awakens

EKOS has released a 2nd poll that puts the NDP in the lead in the past couple of weeks. This solidifies things more, showing that it is not a fluke. (Actually, 8 recent polls have the NDP virtually tied with the Conservatives for the lead.)

Probably the most significant number in the latest poll is the position of the NDP in Ontario. It has been pretty obvious that the NDP are going to hold onto their seats in Quebec. And, they have remained steadily competitive in BC. The key now to the election lies in vote-rich Ontario. For the NDP to get enough seats to form the next government, they need to get a lot of seats in Ontario. But, the NDP has not done well yet in Ontario. Until now...

If you look at the latest and previous recent Ekos polls, you see the NDP has come from a distant 3rd to now being tied in first with the Conservatives in Ontario. The trend is up for the NDP in most of the provinces. But pulling into first place in Ontario means a lot more seats. And, a lot more seats for the NDP could spell an NDP majority government.

In the last election, the NDP reached about 27% support in Ontario. Currently, they are 4 points above this and the trend seems like their support will continue to rise in Ontario. I'm sure that besides the Harper government history, the federal Liberals supporting Bill C-51 (among many other Conservative policies/bills), and the Wynne government souring (looking even more conservative than the Harris PCs now) are giving a boost to the NDP. 

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next while in Ontario. I believe this is where the votes will decide between a Harper minority government and an NDP minority or majority government.

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