Wednesday, 27 April 2011

NDP Still Rising

Tories Lead in Canada, NDP Firmly in Second Place Due to Quebec Strength | Angus Reid Public Opinion
Although this is an on-line poll, and generally deemed not as accurate, it still seems in sync with the other polling trends and is very close to the April 25th EKOS poll results.

Conservatives: 35%
NDP: 30%
Liberals: 22%
Bloc: 7%
Green: 5%

The trend of the NDP support has been a on a continual rise for some time now, growing faster as we get closer to May 2nd. With this trend, we may even see the NDP tie or surpass the Conservatives.

In Ontario, one area where the NDP rise was slowest to start out of all the provinces, The NDP are now at 27%, closing in on the Liberals with 30%. The Conservatives still lead in Ontario with 38%. The NDP started this campaign with only about 16% support in Ontario.


Poll on this blog
Interesting results so far on the poll on my blog. Here is the seat projection (proportionately) from that poll:
NDP: 272 seats
Conservatives: 24 seats
Green: 12 seats
(no seats for Liberals or Bloc)


Kirbycairo said...

With NDP fortunes rising this high in Ontario I now suspect a Conservative majority. Before, when the NDP was only rising in areas where they was much less vote splitting, things looked good. I now fear the worst.

Thor said...

Oh dear. Someone else who has not been paying attention. The Conservatives are not polling high enough to get a majority. The NDP and the Liberals have basically reversed in the standings with the NDP in 2nd and the Liberals in 3rd. The main difference here is that the NDP continue to rise in the polls, taking support away from all other parties, including the Conservatives. This means that at the very least, the NDP will be the official opposition to a Conservative minority government. But, if they continue to rise at this rate, they could get the most seats and form an NDP minority government.

None of the polls, now, show a Conservative Majority. The only people saying that are Liberal supporters who are too upset that the Liberals are doing so poorly and no one listened to them re: strategic voting and they couldn't get the soft Liberal/NDP voters to support the Liberals this time.

Canadians have finally woken up and are going to vote for the party that best represents their values and beliefs. The NDP.