Friday, 15 May 2015

NDP Support Pre-election 2011 Compared to 2015

Here is an interesting comparison between the NDP support 8-5 months before the election in 2011 compared to the same period now in 2015.

Back in 2011, support was in the mid teens at this time and didn't start to rise until closer to the election. But in 2015, support was in the upper teens and has gradually risen (with a jump at the end of the period) to close to 30 in the same period.

So, the NDP support this time around is much stronger, double what it was at the same time before the previous election. They are well situated to continue to grow to a position to form the government.

With the rise of the provincial NDP in Alberta, and with the federal Liberals not looking very progressive, especially with their vote to support bill C-51, progressive voters are looking more and more to the NDP as the party to support to beat the Harper Conservatives.

The following table shows a comparison of the regional support over these time periods (numbers taken from EKOS polls)


2011

2015


Sep. 2010 Dec. 2010 change Feb. 2015 May 2015 change
BC 31 22 -9 22 31 +9
AB 13 6 -7 10 25 +15
SK (SK&MB 2011) 16 19 +3 23 28 +5
MB


16 20 +4
ON 15 16 +1 15 27 +12
QC 9 11 +2 23 36 +13
Atlantic 15 13 -2 18 24 +6

In the latest EKOS poll, May 6-12, 2015, The NDP are leading in Quebec and BC, are in second place in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Atlantic, and are now only 6 points off the lead in Ontario. Support in Ontario is vital for the NDP to really increase their seat total. And the gains in Alberta, which until now were totally unexpected, will be a bonus.

UPDATE

A Forum poll has just come out with similar numbers as the EKOS poll - Con and Lib 31% each and NDP at 30%.

1 comment:

T Reashore said...

Good to see The Porcelain Bus on the road again...