Monday 28 May 2012

Federal NDP Continue To Edge Towards A Majority Government

The latest Forum Research poll (Forum Research results, National Post story) shows the NDP in the lead nationally, in Quebec, Atlantic and BC, and almost tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the Prairies. 
The only province that the Conservatives hold a strong lead in is Alberta.

Poll standings:
NDP 36%
Con 32%
Lib 20%
Green 6%
Bloc 5%

NDP 34%
Con 35%
Lib 25%
Green 5%

NDP 40%
Con 18%
Lib 14%
Green 5%
Bloc 21%

NDP 40%
Con 31%
Lib 18%
Green 10%

NDP 16%
Con 61%
Lib 15%
Green 6%

NDP 37%
Con 38%
Lib 17%
Green 7%

NDP 51%
Con 22%
Lib 24%
Green 3%

This poll had a sample size of 1836, which has a margin of error of 2.29%, 19 times out of 20.

Other poll findings:
Favourable support of party leaders:
Tom Mulcair 41%
Stephen Harper 33%
Bob Rae 33%

Net Approval (approve minus disapprove)
Tom Mulcair +10%
Stephen Harper -26%
Bob Rae -5%

Forum Research: "One third approve of the job Stephen Harper is doing as Prime Minister (33%), stable from last month (34%), while one third also approve of the job Bob Rae is
doing (33%) and this is down slightly since last month (35%). NDP leader Tom
Mulcair's favourables are at 41% and this hasn't changed. In terms of 'net
approval' (approve minus disapprove), Mulcair is at +10, while Harper and Rae
languish in the negative numbers (-26 and -5, respectively). Harper's low net
approval rating is due to high levels of disapproval not applied to the other two

Canada suffers from income gap
77% agree that the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor 

Lower dollar preferred
Forum Research: "Close to one half of those polled said a low dollar supporting manufacturing was better for Canada than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports (45%), while about one third disagreed (35%)."

Majority want to deny Conrad Black Canadian citizenship
Forum Research: "More than six-in-ten say they disagree convicted media tycoon Conrad Black should be given back the Canadian citizenship he renounced (61%). Just one fifth
(21%) think he deserves this second chance.
Supporters of either the federal Conservatives or Liberals (28%, 26%; compared
to 18% Green, 15% NDP, and 7% BQ), and Canadians residing outside of Quebec
(28% Alberta, 24% British Columbia, 24% Ontario, 24% Atlantic, 22% Prairies, and
9% Quebec) were more likely to agree that Black should be given back his
Canadian citizenship.
"Canadians are proud of their country, and value its citizenship. It is clear they do
not think Conrad Black deserves the benefits of being a Canadian anymore," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff."

1 comment:

Thor said...

The elephant in the room here is what is happening in Ontario. A major part of winning government in Canada is doing well in the province with the most seats: Ontario.

The NDP have gone from 26% support in Ontario at election time, to 34% support in this poll. Other polls have been showing a steady increase in support for the NDP in Ontario. At the same time, there has been a steady decline in Conservative support in Ontario. They have gone from having 44% support in Ontario at election time to 35% - a significant drop which puts them at about the same level as the NDP. The Liberals have stayed the same at 25%.

If these trends continue, this could put the NDP in majority territory.