CARP, (Canadian Association of Retired Persons), has released their latest poll regarding federal politics. For the first time in years, a party other than the Conservatives leads. The NDP now has an 8 point lead over the Conservatives.
This poll definitely spells trouble for the Conservatives as their core support is from older Canadians. Three main issues that have changed seniors minds regarding the Conservatives have been 1) the changes to OAS, 2)The F-35 Scandal, and 3)C-38 the current omnibus-budget bill. This third issue seems to have been the turning point where support for the Conservatives has plummeted, while support for the NDP has jumped.
Previous to this year, support for the Conservatives in the CARP polls has been fairly stable, around 50%, and the NDP support has been about 16%. But with the Conservatives finally flexing their muscle with their majority government, seniors across Canada are reacting with displeasure as this government's true nature/plan is exposed.
Party - Oct. 2011 - May 2012
NDP 16% 39% (+23%)
Cons 51% 31% (-20%)
Libs 28% 29% (+1%)
Green 4% 4% (no change)
From the latest CARP Poll report:
The vast majority of CARP members disagree with bundling so many controversial pieces of legislation in one Omnibus Budget Bill.
Fully one half do not expect the government to survive the next election, and those who do are fewer than those who say they support the government.
The clear majority, or five times as many, say they will vote against the government if it proceeds with Bill C-38 as say they will vote for the government in the next election, and the government stands to lose a significant tranche of itʼs core support because of this issue.
For the first time in four years of CARP member polling, a party other than the Conservatives leads in electoral preference, and the NDPʼs lead is substantial, not marginal
These polls were responded to by 1900 panel members (Oct 2011), and 2500 panel members (May 2012).
Although the CARP poll is not a normal poll of people across the country, (it is just among its own members), it is an important indicator of support among seniors in Canada. CARP members have shown that they normally are more supportive of the Conservatives than the average seniors across Canada. The fact that Conservative support among this group has dramatically declined while the NDP support has likewise increased is an important indicator of changes of support that are happening or soon to be happening in the general senior population of Canada. Any way you slice it, it spells bad news for the Conservatives and good news for the NDP.