Friday, 7 October 2011

Analysis of ON 2011 Election Results vs My Prediction

My prediction vs the election results.

Party - Prediction - Election
Lib - 50 - 53
PC - 31 - 37
NDP - 26 - 17

I was pretty close with my Liberal prediction, but off in my PC and NDP predictions significantly.

NDP prediction
I put too much credence in the trend of the NDP continuing to rise. It seems that the debate may have given the NDP a rise in some specific ridings, but not across Ontario in general. As a result, there were a number of ridings where the NDP came in a close 2nd that I thought they would win. Probably the biggest recipient of any last minute boost to the NDP came in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, where Jagmeet Singh won for the NDP. I don't think this area has ever elected an NDP member to parliament.

PC prediction
There were a few upsets that weren't predicted in the polls where the PC upset a Liberal incumbent (where it was deemed a safe seat for the Liberals). And, there some close PC-Liberal races where the Liberals had the slight edge in the polls, but the PCs gained even more support on election day.

I figured we would get a Liberal minority government and we did. A step in the right direction - a baby step.

Am I happy with the result. Of course I would have preferred an NDP government, but at least now, there will be some instances where the NDP may be able to bring some pressure on the Liberal government to implement some measures they would like to see.

Unfortunately, we will still see our money squandered on more useless corporate tax cuts (since the PCs and Liberals both want these). This will make it more difficult to reach a balance budget while providing services and support to Ontarians.

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