Andrea Horwath the real winner of the debate

Horwath Wins Ontario Debate: MSM Miss the Boat | rabble.ca
Ethan Cox writes about what the MSM missed - that there was a large improvement of opinion regarding Andrea Horwath's performance in the debate by those who were interviewed before and after.
There appeared to be little change in opinion regarding the other 2 party leaders. But, 14% said they changed their mind about who they were going to vote for. This has the possibility to help push the NDP support over the 30% mark, at the same time lowering the support for the other parties, and putting the NDP neck and neck with the Liberals and PCs.
 
Excerpt from Ethan's post:

But that's only the beginning of the story. The second most compelling stat in the report (I'm coming to the first, don't worry), was the stunning number of Ontarians whose impression of Horwath improved. Let's go to the report again:

it was Andrea Horwath who made the biggest impression on Ontarians as 67% say they have an improved impression of her as a result of the debate, while just 10% say their impressions worsened, representing a net score of +57, effectively making her the real winner of the debate. By comparison, Jack Layton’s net improvement score in the English-language federal debate was +41 points, and +42 in the French-language debate. Three in ten (29%) have an improved impression of Dalton McGuinty, compared to a similar proportion (31%) who have a worsened impression, representing a net score of -2. Four in ten (37%) say that their impressions of Tim Hudak improved, while one in three (34%) say they worsened, a net score of +3.[emphasis mine]

Now that is a pretty stunning number, but Liberal and Conservative spin doctors would no doubt argue that people's impression of Horwath may have gone up, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote for her. After all, someone who hated her before might have had their impression softened, but still prefer another candidate.

So let's look at the most important piece of information in the poll, as far as I'm concerned. Back to the report we go:

With the NDP leader performing so well compared to expectations, it is interesting to note that one in ten (14%) viewers say they changed their mind about who they were going to vote for as a result of what they saw tonight, with the NDP appearing to be the biggest beneficiary among those who viewed the debates and reportedly switched their vote.

Horwath was also chosen as the leader with the best ideas and policies (35% +10), the most likeable leader (52% +8) and the most "visually attractive" (54% +12). On the issues, Horwath came out on top with viewers as the candidate they most trust on Healthcare (35%, +11) and came second on Taxes (24% +5) and Education (29%, +10).

So in summary, Horwath was the runaway winner of the debate, improving the opinion of 57% of viewers, and 14% of viewers will shift their vote as a result. So could one of the numerous pundits opining that no one won the debate, and that no one succeeded in moving voters, explain their position to me please?

Even taking into account margin of error and the fact that not all Ontarians watched the debate (although they'll certainly hear about it around the proverbial water-cooler) we're talking about a minimum of 5-8% shift from the other parties to the NDP. Transpose that onto the most recent poll results and you're looking at the NDP above 30% and in a three way dead heat with the Libs and Cons.

In other words, ladies and gentlemen, I think we have a ball game. So I wonder if journalists didn't bother to read the Ipsos report through, inexplicably failed to notice the huge shift to Horwath which the report writers underline on several occasions, or chose to run with the story that the debate was a wash because it fit better with their own narrative of the campaign?

In any case, barring the remote possibility that Ipsos produced a rogue poll, I expect to see a significant swing to the NDP in the polls over the next week. This will leave us with a thrilling three way race to the finish, in which Horwath has as much chance of snatching the Premier's chair as either of her opponents.

The NDP are back in Ontario, and that, coincidentally, is very good news for their federal cousins. It's going to be one hell of a finish. I'm certainly looking forward to it.