Friday, 28 September 2012

Ontario NDP virtually tied with PCs

A new Forum Research  Ontario tracking poll is out. The results show the NDP and PCs in a virtual tie, with the Liberal support continuing to plummet.
Horwath's and Hudak's popularity remains about the same with Horwath way in the lead, but McGuinty's popularity has dropped significantly.

Results of the Sept. 25th poll compared to level of support at the election in Oct. 2011:
PC: 37% (+2%)
NDP: 35% (+12%)
LIb: 20% (-18%)

The NDP has been steadily rising overall since the election, while the PCs have remained about the same. The Liberal support has steadily dropped since the election with an increased drop since last month.

Leader Popularity compared to level of support Jan. 2012:
Andrea Horwath (NDP): 48% (+8%)
Tim Hudak (PC): 26% (no change)
Dalton McGuinty (Lib): 20% (-13%)

If the trends continue, we could be looking at a minority NDP government by the time an election rolls around.

Also of note:
Supporter Enthusiasm:
Very Enthusiastic:
NDP 53%
PC: 48%
Lib: 38%

Regional support:
The NDP and PCs are running about neck and neck in all regions of the province with the PCs having the upper hand in the 905 region and in Eastern Ontario. Liberal support in all regions is a distant 3rd, except in Eastern Ontario, where they are doing a bit better.


Methodology


1 comment:

janfromthebruce said...

yeah, that is so good. Most definitely not the numbers the libs want in a minority govt situation.