No One To Blame For Rob Ford But The Media And Ignorance

This article in the Toronto Star points to the voters as those solely to blame for Rob Ford being elected.

I disagree. The voters are partially to blame, but there were other major factors.

1) The Media
The Media is very much to blame for the election of Rob Ford. During the election campaign they, pretty much as a whole, focused much more on the celebrity of Rob Ford than on the policies of the candidates. This influenced the many voters who are more easily swayed by name recognition and celebrity than policies.

Also, the Media is largely to blame for discouraging people from voting, by convincing many that it is pointless to vote as it will change nothing. Remember, the vast majority of media is or is owned by large corporations. So, it is in their best interests for the most part to support Conservative ideology. It is known that the most avid voters are conservative supporters. So, by convincing those who disagree with and are disappointed by government policies and trends that it is a waste of time to vote, they are removing votes against the parties/people that support the conservative/corporate agenda/ideologies.


2) Ignorance
A large part of Conservative ideology is the celebration of ignorance over knowledge and reason. Just look at the popularity of the Tea Party in the USA, especially a couple of years ago, during the time of the last Toronto municipal election. Those people in Toronto who embraced this celebration of ignorance over knowledge and reason at the time of the election were/are at the core of Ford Nation. The popularity and sensationalizing of this ideology convinced many more to jump on the bandwagon of celebrating ignorance.

And now, with all that, there is the issue of trying to reason with those who have chosen to abandon reason.

It is easier to fool someone that to convince them that they have been fooled.

We have our work cut out for us. And it is made especially hard for individuals to fight against the Media for the attention of people, especially for those people who currently won't be reasoned with.

Disecting Ford Nation - Part Three - Nov. 20, 2013

Crack smoking admission, "rage/murder threats" video, oral sex comment, international embarrassment, bullying and immature behaviour in council, ... After a series of things that confirm, for most people, that Rob Ford should resign as Mayor of Toronto, Ford still enjoys significant support.  Unbelievable you say? How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?


Today I will look at 5 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 and Nov. 20, 2013. Again, I will look at the groups with the highest initial approval ratings on Oct. 28-29 to see if there are any significant changes.

Significant observations
• Overall approval has stayed about the same
• Support remains highest among men
• Support from seniors continues to drop (by 10% since the first of these polls), and Other Christians (by 15%)
• We see a sudden drop in support in the recent poll among these groups: Scarborough, Low Income, Other Christian
• We see a significant rise in support amongst these groups that formerly had lower support ratings: 45-54 years of age, Etobicoke or York, Renters, $60-$80k, Catholics,  Households with children

What does this mean?
We can see that the demographics of Ford Nation are changing somewhat as a result of the new revelations and incidents. Some people are starting to change their mind against Rob Ford, while others are becoming more supportive, thus, keeping the approval rating fairly steady.

The biggest swing between groups is the drop in support in Scarborough and the rise in support in Etobicoke. Maybe this means that the people of Scarborough are having second thoughts about the expensive subway plan (vs. the already-paid-for LRT plan), and the people of Etobicoke are feeling the need to rally around their hometown boy.

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44% - 42%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56% - 58%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48% - 47%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44% - 40%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53% - 53%

Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52% - 55%


SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50% - 49%


DROPPED AND THEN LEVELLED OFF
Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77% - 77%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59% - 43%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54% - 49%

Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40% - 39%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57% - 51%




And here are new groups that have, over the time of these polls, risen to be the top supporters that were not initially top supporters.

Age - 45-54
46%

Region - Etobicoke or York
57%

Renters
46%

Household income - $60-$80k
53%

Religion - Catholic
54%

Have Children
49%

Rob Ford - Another Day, Another Apology

After a long and eventful day at City Council, wherein Ford had his power even further reduced, Rob and Doug Ford sat down for an interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge.

It is long and painful to watch if you have an aversion to lies and buffoons.

Here are some highlights:

Rob Ford claims he has never been drunk while driving. (Yet, his staff have witnessed him drunk driving).

Rob Ford admitted, during the interview that he has, since becoming mayor,
- smoked marijuana at least once,
- smoked crack only once,
- been high on cocaine more than once (but then denied it - claiming it was when he was a teen, not recently (He has been seen snorting cocaine while he has been mayor),
- purchased drugs, and that this is an illegal act, and he agrees that people should think that he should be charged for buying drugs. (Then he tried to deflect from this admission by claiming that other councillors have purchased marijuana).

Rob Ford claims he has never been on drugs while in his office. He claims the last time he did drugs was "a year ago sometime."

He thinks that everyone has been as high or drunk as he has, to the point where there are memory blackouts.

And, on why he is not talking to the police:
His lawyer has advised him to not talk to the police [regarding any of the on-going investigations - there are current investigations regarding drugs, extortion and murder].
> Mansbridge: What kind of signal does that send?
Ford: Talk to my lawyer.

What kind of signal indeed.

Toronto Centre By-election: Could Be A Tight Race With Support For Linda McQuaig, NDP, Rising

In the latest poll, Liberal candidate Crystia Freeland leads with 46% support, and the NDP candidate Linda McQuaig is second with 35% support.

Looking at only those numbers, it seems like the election is a sure thing for the Liberals. However, when we look at the way the numbers are trending, things look much closer.

In the last 3 Forum polls we see that

Liberal support went from 49% to 45% to 46% - dropped and then levelled off.

while the NDP support went from 25% to 30% to 35% - rising continually.

If the trend continues, we could see a solid swath of NDP MPs right across downtown Toronto.

Disecting Ford Nation - Part Two - Nov. 6, 2013

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 4 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 (after the 1st video revelation and Ford's confession, but before the release of the "rage/murder threats" video).


Changes
Approval stays about the same since the Nov. 4th poll.
The most significant changes in Ford Nation are:
• Support has risen amongst men and people in Scarborough
• Support from seniors continues to drop




Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53%


Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52%

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50%




Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59%

SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77%

Disecting Ford Nation - Part One - Recent Numbers

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 3 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, and Nov. 4, 2013 (just before the video revelation to just before the confession by Ford).

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date


Approval
39% - 44% - 43%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45%

Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55%

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53%



SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74%