Disecting Ford Nation - Part Three - Nov. 20, 2013

Crack smoking admission, "rage/murder threats" video, oral sex comment, international embarrassment, bullying and immature behaviour in council, ... After a series of things that confirm, for most people, that Rob Ford should resign as Mayor of Toronto, Ford still enjoys significant support.  Unbelievable you say? How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?


Today I will look at 5 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 and Nov. 20, 2013. Again, I will look at the groups with the highest initial approval ratings on Oct. 28-29 to see if there are any significant changes.

Significant observations
• Overall approval has stayed about the same
• Support remains highest among men
• Support from seniors continues to drop (by 10% since the first of these polls), and Other Christians (by 15%)
• We see a sudden drop in support in the recent poll among these groups: Scarborough, Low Income, Other Christian
• We see a significant rise in support amongst these groups that formerly had lower support ratings: 45-54 years of age, Etobicoke or York, Renters, $60-$80k, Catholics,  Households with children

What does this mean?
We can see that the demographics of Ford Nation are changing somewhat as a result of the new revelations and incidents. Some people are starting to change their mind against Rob Ford, while others are becoming more supportive, thus, keeping the approval rating fairly steady.

The biggest swing between groups is the drop in support in Scarborough and the rise in support in Etobicoke. Maybe this means that the people of Scarborough are having second thoughts about the expensive subway plan (vs. the already-paid-for LRT plan), and the people of Etobicoke are feeling the need to rally around their hometown boy.

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44% - 42%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56% - 58%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48% - 47%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44% - 40%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53% - 53%

Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52% - 55%


SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50% - 49%


DROPPED AND THEN LEVELLED OFF
Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77% - 77%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59% - 43%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54% - 49%

Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40% - 39%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57% - 51%




And here are new groups that have, over the time of these polls, risen to be the top supporters that were not initially top supporters.

Age - 45-54
46%

Region - Etobicoke or York
57%

Renters
46%

Household income - $60-$80k
53%

Religion - Catholic
54%

Have Children
49%