Federal NDP Continue To Edge Towards A Majority Government

The latest Forum Research poll (Forum Research results, National Post story) shows the NDP in the lead nationally, in Quebec, Atlantic and BC, and almost tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and the Prairies. 

The only province that the Conservatives hold a strong lead in is Alberta.

Poll standings:
Canada
NDP 36%
Con 32%
Lib 20%
Green 6%
Bloc 5%

Ontario
NDP 34%
Con 35%
Lib 25%
Green 5%

Quebec
NDP 40%
Con 18%
Lib 14%
Green 5%
Bloc 21%

BC
NDP 40%
Con 31%
Lib 18%
Green 10%

Alberta
NDP 16%
Con 61%
Lib 15%
Green 6%

Prairies
NDP 37%
Con 38%
Lib 17%
Green 7%

Atlantic
NDP 51%
Con 22%
Lib 24%
Green 3%

This poll had a sample size of 1836, which has a margin of error of 2.29%, 19 times out of 20.

Other poll findings:
Favourable support of party leaders:
Tom Mulcair 41%
Stephen Harper 33%
Bob Rae 33%

Net Approval (approve minus disapprove)
Tom Mulcair +10%
Stephen Harper -26%
Bob Rae -5%

Forum Research: "One third approve of the job Stephen Harper is doing as Prime Minister (33%), stable from last month (34%), while one third also approve of the job Bob Rae is
doing (33%) and this is down slightly since last month (35%). NDP leader Tom
Mulcair's favourables are at 41% and this hasn't changed. In terms of 'net
approval' (approve minus disapprove), Mulcair is at +10, while Harper and Rae
languish in the negative numbers (-26 and -5, respectively). Harper's low net
approval rating is due to high levels of disapproval not applied to the other two
leaders."

Canada suffers from income gap
77% agree that the rich are getting too rich and the poor are getting too poor 

Lower dollar preferred
Forum Research: "Close to one half of those polled said a low dollar supporting manufacturing was better for Canada than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports (45%), while about one third disagreed (35%)."

Majority want to deny Conrad Black Canadian citizenship
Forum Research: "More than six-in-ten say they disagree convicted media tycoon Conrad Black should be given back the Canadian citizenship he renounced (61%). Just one fifth
(21%) think he deserves this second chance.
Supporters of either the federal Conservatives or Liberals (28%, 26%; compared
to 18% Green, 15% NDP, and 7% BQ), and Canadians residing outside of Quebec
(28% Alberta, 24% British Columbia, 24% Ontario, 24% Atlantic, 22% Prairies, and
9% Quebec) were more likely to agree that Black should be given back his
Canadian citizenship.
"Canadians are proud of their country, and value its citizenship. It is clear they do
not think Conrad Black deserves the benefits of being a Canadian anymore," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff."

Facebook Blocks Blogspot.ca

Facebook has blocked blogspot.ca. This means anyone with a blog on Blogger in Canada can't post their links to Facebook. I've written them about it this morning. Hopefully they will unblock it soon.

Here is the message that comes up if you try to post a blogspot.ca link:

Sorry, this post contains a blocked URL

The content you're trying to share includes a link that's been blocked for being spammy or unsafe:

blogspot.ca

For more information, visit the Help Center. If you think you're seeing this by mistake, please let us know.

Write to them ("let us know" above) and let them know that blogspot.ca is okay.

UPDATE
As of June 1, 2012, it seems that Facebook is no longer blocking the core blogspot.ca site. Thank you to all those who wrote to Facebook about this.  

Going To The Wall In Defense Of Mulcair

Great post by Erin Weir - The Progressive Economics Forum:

"Mulcair has articulated a balanced approach to resource development that would generate more public revenue, a more competitive exchange rate, and more manufacturing jobs. Saskatchewan is well positioned to help implement and benefit from this approach by raising provincial resource royalties."

Read the whole post here.

So much of the MSM are focusing only on the Conservative party talking points - oh, Mulcair and the NDP are against the West and against developing oil and resources. This is so much hogwash. Mulcair and the NDP are FOR development and FOR the West. What they would like to see is a more balanced approach that would improve the environmental situation around extracting resources, as well as a more balanced approach regarding royalties which would bring in more money for Canada. All of this would help Canadian manufacturing across Canada, as well as create a lot more Canadian jobs.

Conservative Support Among Older Canadians Plummets. NDP Leads Now By A Wide Margin

CARP, (Canadian Association of Retired Persons), has released their latest poll regarding federal politics. For the first time in years, a party other than the Conservatives leads. The NDP now has an 8 point lead over the Conservatives.

This poll definitely spells trouble for the Conservatives as their core support is from older Canadians. Three main issues that have changed seniors minds regarding the Conservatives have been 1) the changes to OAS, 2)The F-35 Scandal, and 3)C-38 the current omnibus-budget bill. This third issue seems to have been the turning point where support for the Conservatives has plummeted, while support for the NDP has jumped. 

Previous to this year, support for the Conservatives in the CARP polls has been fairly stable, around 50%, and the NDP support has been about 16%. But with the Conservatives finally flexing their muscle with their majority government, seniors across Canada are reacting with displeasure as this government's true nature/plan is exposed.

Here is a comparison of CARP poll results between Oct. 2011 and May, 2012:


Party - Oct. 2011 - May 2012


NDP    16%    39% (+23%)
Cons    51%   31% (-20%)
Libs      28%   29% (+1%)
Green   4%     4%   (no change)

From the latest CARP Poll report:
Key Findings
The vast majority of CARP members disagree with bundling so many controversial pieces of legislation in one Omnibus Budget Bill.

Fully one half do not expect the government to survive the next election, and those who do are fewer than those who say they support the government.

The clear majority, or five times as many, say they will vote against the government if it proceeds with Bill C-38 as say they will vote for the government in the next election, and the government stands to lose a significant tranche of itʼs core support because of this issue.

For the first time in four years of CARP member polling, a party other than the Conservatives leads in electoral preference, and the NDPʼs lead is substantial, not marginal

These polls were responded to by 1900 panel members (Oct 2011), and 2500 panel members (May 2012).

UPDATE

Although the CARP poll is not a normal poll of people across the country, (it is just among its own members), it is an important indicator of support among seniors in Canada. CARP members have shown that they normally are more supportive of the Conservatives than the average seniors across Canada. The fact that Conservative support among this group has dramatically declined while the NDP support has likewise increased is an important indicator of changes of support that are happening or soon to be happening in the general senior population of Canada. Any way you slice it, it spells bad news for the Conservatives and good news for the NDP.

Oh Noes! The Grope & Fail To Become A Pay Site

Over the past few years the news reporting and columns in the G&M have really gone down hill, IMHO. I used to read a lot of the G&M as part of my daily news reads. But lately, I read maybe a few articles per month now. So, for me, no big loss.

The Globe and Mail announced today that they will limit free on-line reading beginning in the Fall.


Toronto Star article.
The metered paywall will allow site visitors to read a certain number of stories per month for free, starting in the fall. The number of free clicks hasn’t been decided yet, Crawley said. The paywall will be for the entire site, not just the Report On Business, as previously anticipated.

See also:
David Climenhaga's Alberta Diary blog: A leaky paywall won't keep the Globe and Mail afloat
If the Globe is so desperate it has to stop paying staff to survive, a leaky paywall to protect uninspired copy produced by overwhelmed journos isn’t going to save it.

NDP Lead Over The Conservatives Growing

The last 3 federal polls show the NDP consistently in the lead, ahead of the Conservatives (1 Forum and 2 Harris-Decima polls). The latest Harris-Decima poll has the NDP lead increasing. 

In Ontario, where the NDP will have to have major growth in order to form the next government, we see the NDP holding above 30%, while the Conservative support continues to erode - much of it going over to Liberal and Green.

The Conservatives maintain a strong lead in Alberta, but in the Prairies, the NDP are gaining on them and are now in a close 2nd.

Poll standings:
Canada
NDP 34%
Con 30%
Lib 20%
Green 8%
Bloc 7%

Ontario
NDP 31%
Con 32%
Lib 28%
Green 7%

Quebec
NDP 38%
Con 12%
Lib 14%
Green 7%
Bloc 27%

BC
NDP 39%
Con 32%
Lib 14%
Green 13%

Alberta
NDP 17%
Con 55%
Lib 14%
Green 12%

Prairies
NDP 39%
Con 43%
Lib 11%
Green 6%

Atlantic
NDP 44%
Con 23%
Lib 30%
Green 3%

This poll had a sample size of 2018, which has a margin of error of 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

See also:
Toronto Star: NDP gaining support in traditional Tory areas, poll shows

NDP MP Bruce Hyer Quits and Then Wants Back In

Okay, wouldn't it have made sense for Hyer to discuss his concerns with Mulcair BEFORE taking an extreme action that he now obviously regrets? All of this only shows poor judgment on Hyer's part.

Hyer was really just sore because he wasn't picked for a shadow cabinet position. Of course he wasn't - because he voted against the party on a key issue, more than once.

And, regarding that key issue - the Long Gun Registry. The NDP's aim was and is not to support it as-is (was), but to improve it so that it both serves the purpose of improved safety and as a useful tool for law enforcement regarding crimes, AND so that the licensing costs and procedures are not so annoying to legitimate gun owners, especially those in rural Canada where gun ownership is often a necessity.

I say, either cut him loose and find a more responsible NDP candidate for that riding, or, bring him back and put him to work on helping to improve the gun registry procedures to make it more reasonable for rural Canadians.


CBC: MP Bruce Hyer open to rejoining NDP caucus, if invited.