No One To Blame For Rob Ford But The Media And Ignorance

This article in the Toronto Star points to the voters as those solely to blame for Rob Ford being elected.

I disagree. The voters are partially to blame, but there were other major factors.

1) The Media
The Media is very much to blame for the election of Rob Ford. During the election campaign they, pretty much as a whole, focused much more on the celebrity of Rob Ford than on the policies of the candidates. This influenced the many voters who are more easily swayed by name recognition and celebrity than policies.

Also, the Media is largely to blame for discouraging people from voting, by convincing many that it is pointless to vote as it will change nothing. Remember, the vast majority of media is or is owned by large corporations. So, it is in their best interests for the most part to support Conservative ideology. It is known that the most avid voters are conservative supporters. So, by convincing those who disagree with and are disappointed by government policies and trends that it is a waste of time to vote, they are removing votes against the parties/people that support the conservative/corporate agenda/ideologies.


2) Ignorance
A large part of Conservative ideology is the celebration of ignorance over knowledge and reason. Just look at the popularity of the Tea Party in the USA, especially a couple of years ago, during the time of the last Toronto municipal election. Those people in Toronto who embraced this celebration of ignorance over knowledge and reason at the time of the election were/are at the core of Ford Nation. The popularity and sensationalizing of this ideology convinced many more to jump on the bandwagon of celebrating ignorance.

And now, with all that, there is the issue of trying to reason with those who have chosen to abandon reason.

It is easier to fool someone that to convince them that they have been fooled.

We have our work cut out for us. And it is made especially hard for individuals to fight against the Media for the attention of people, especially for those people who currently won't be reasoned with.

Disecting Ford Nation - Part Three - Nov. 20, 2013

Crack smoking admission, "rage/murder threats" video, oral sex comment, international embarrassment, bullying and immature behaviour in council, ... After a series of things that confirm, for most people, that Rob Ford should resign as Mayor of Toronto, Ford still enjoys significant support.  Unbelievable you say? How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?


Today I will look at 5 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 and Nov. 20, 2013. Again, I will look at the groups with the highest initial approval ratings on Oct. 28-29 to see if there are any significant changes.

Significant observations
• Overall approval has stayed about the same
• Support remains highest among men
• Support from seniors continues to drop (by 10% since the first of these polls), and Other Christians (by 15%)
• We see a sudden drop in support in the recent poll among these groups: Scarborough, Low Income, Other Christian
• We see a significant rise in support amongst these groups that formerly had lower support ratings: 45-54 years of age, Etobicoke or York, Renters, $60-$80k, Catholics,  Households with children

What does this mean?
We can see that the demographics of Ford Nation are changing somewhat as a result of the new revelations and incidents. Some people are starting to change their mind against Rob Ford, while others are becoming more supportive, thus, keeping the approval rating fairly steady.

The biggest swing between groups is the drop in support in Scarborough and the rise in support in Etobicoke. Maybe this means that the people of Scarborough are having second thoughts about the expensive subway plan (vs. the already-paid-for LRT plan), and the people of Etobicoke are feeling the need to rally around their hometown boy.

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44% - 42%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56% - 58%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48% - 47%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44% - 40%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53% - 53%

Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52% - 55%


SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50% - 49%


DROPPED AND THEN LEVELLED OFF
Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77% - 77%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59% - 43%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54% - 49%

Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40% - 39%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57% - 51%




And here are new groups that have, over the time of these polls, risen to be the top supporters that were not initially top supporters.

Age - 45-54
46%

Region - Etobicoke or York
57%

Renters
46%

Household income - $60-$80k
53%

Religion - Catholic
54%

Have Children
49%

Rob Ford - Another Day, Another Apology

After a long and eventful day at City Council, wherein Ford had his power even further reduced, Rob and Doug Ford sat down for an interview with CBC's Peter Mansbridge.

It is long and painful to watch if you have an aversion to lies and buffoons.

Here are some highlights:

Rob Ford claims he has never been drunk while driving. (Yet, his staff have witnessed him drunk driving).

Rob Ford admitted, during the interview that he has, since becoming mayor,
- smoked marijuana at least once,
- smoked crack only once,
- been high on cocaine more than once (but then denied it - claiming it was when he was a teen, not recently (He has been seen snorting cocaine while he has been mayor),
- purchased drugs, and that this is an illegal act, and he agrees that people should think that he should be charged for buying drugs. (Then he tried to deflect from this admission by claiming that other councillors have purchased marijuana).

Rob Ford claims he has never been on drugs while in his office. He claims the last time he did drugs was "a year ago sometime."

He thinks that everyone has been as high or drunk as he has, to the point where there are memory blackouts.

And, on why he is not talking to the police:
His lawyer has advised him to not talk to the police [regarding any of the on-going investigations - there are current investigations regarding drugs, extortion and murder].
> Mansbridge: What kind of signal does that send?
Ford: Talk to my lawyer.

What kind of signal indeed.

Toronto Centre By-election: Could Be A Tight Race With Support For Linda McQuaig, NDP, Rising

In the latest poll, Liberal candidate Crystia Freeland leads with 46% support, and the NDP candidate Linda McQuaig is second with 35% support.

Looking at only those numbers, it seems like the election is a sure thing for the Liberals. However, when we look at the way the numbers are trending, things look much closer.

In the last 3 Forum polls we see that

Liberal support went from 49% to 45% to 46% - dropped and then levelled off.

while the NDP support went from 25% to 30% to 35% - rising continually.

If the trend continues, we could see a solid swath of NDP MPs right across downtown Toronto.

Disecting Ford Nation - Part Two - Nov. 6, 2013

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 4 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, Nov. 4, 2013, Nov. 6, 2013 (after the 1st video revelation and Ford's confession, but before the release of the "rage/murder threats" video).


Changes
Approval stays about the same since the Nov. 4th poll.
The most significant changes in Ford Nation are:
• Support has risen amongst men and people in Scarborough
• Support from seniors continues to drop




Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date

Approval
39% - 44% - 43% - 44%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57% - 56%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46% - 44%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56% - 54%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53% - 53%


Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57% - 52%

SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45% - 50%




Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55% - 59%

SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42% - 40%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55% - 57%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74% - 77%

Disecting Ford Nation - Part One - Recent Numbers

Even though we now have the revelation that there was a video of Toronto mayor Rob Ford smoking crack, and now that Ford had admitted that he smoked crack, he still has a fairly high approval rating. How can this be? Who are these people who still support him?

Today I will look at 3 polls done by Forum Research, Oct. 28-29, Oct. 31, and Nov. 4, 2013 (just before the video revelation to just before the confession by Ford).

Below are levels from the 1st date to the latest date


Approval
39% - 44% - 43%

Disapproval
61% - 56% - 57%

Let's look at the groups with the highest initial approval rating, in other words, Ford Nation.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE (within 5% from 1st to last poll) - THE BASIC CORE
Gender - male
43% - 46% - 45%

Region - Scarborough
51% - 54% - 55%

Transportation - drivers
50% - 49% - 48%

Property Owners
43% - 45% - 46%

Household Income - less than $20k
56% - 47% - 56%

Ethnicity - Other European (non-UK background)
54% - 45% - 53%



SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SUPPORT - THE RABID FANS
Education - some college or university
50% - 54% - 57%


SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT
Age - 65+
49% -  41% - 42%

Religion - "Other Christian" (not Catholic, Protestant or Evangelical)
66% - 56% - 55%

Voted for Rob Ford
84% - 78% - 74%

Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-scandal-hasnt-hampered-tories-support-poll-says/article15174731/
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”


News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6302
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

Canadian Support For Abolishing The Senate Is Gaining Ground - UPDATED

UPDATE

I just got the EKOS poll results from Oct. 29, 2013
These poll results show an even stronger support for Senate abolition
53.8% of Canadians support abolishing the Senate.

Regional support
Provinces that support abolition with  over 50% support: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec (Sask and Que are the highest with 68% and 67% support)

Provinces that support abolition with less than 50% Atlantic, Manitoba, and Ontario

Age
Highest support (52% to 59%) are those older than 35 years
Lowest support is amongst those younger than 35 years (49%)

Party Support
Highest support is amongst Conservative, NDP and Bloc supporters (62% to 74%)
Lowest support is amongst the Liberal (40.6%) and Green (49.4%) supporters

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_29_2013.pdf

 .....

As Canadians have become more aware of the Senate through exposure to the Senate Scandal, they are, more and more, realizing that there is no place in a modern democracy for a Senate.

More people favour making the Senate an elected body, but the support for abolition is gaining ground and has almost caught up.

6 years ago, the difference was 31%, today it is only 6%

Favour an elected Senate: 57%(2007), 42%(Feb. 2013), 49%(June 2013), 49%(Oct. 2013)

Favour abolishing the Senate: 26%(2007), 36%(Feb. 2013), 41%(June 2013), 43%(Oct. 2013)

Sources:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/18/canadian-senate/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/majority-wants-senate-changed-or-abolished-poll-suggests-1.1398046

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=13127

In the latest results from the Ipsos-Reid poll (Oct. 2013) the regions who favour abolition over reform the most are Quebec (54% to 39%) and Atlantic (54% to 45%). All other regions favour reform over abolition with Ontario and BC favouring it the most (53%).

It will be interesting to see where these numbers are in 2015. It will take the support of the majority of provinces to make any major change regarding the Senate (including abolishing it).

ADDENDUM
For more information on abolishing the Senate:
Abolish The Senate: A Sober Second Look At Canadian Democracy - Facts

The NDP's Roll Up The Red Carpet campaign

Democracy Watch's Shut Down The Senate campaign

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_abolished_upper_houses

NDP Democratic and Parliamentary Reform Critic Craig Scott - Abolish The Senate

News and opinion:
Abolish the Senate say local MPs

Idea of Senate Abolition Gaining Momentum Inside Conservative Caucus

OpEd: Senate Abolition The Best Course

Manitoba Joins Move To Abolish The Senate

If Canadian's Vote To Abolish The Senate, Politicians Must Listen

Canadian Senate Abolition Idea Gaining Momentum Among Tories

Abolish the Senate Instead Of Trying To Reform It

Majority of Province's Residents Prefer To See Senate Abolished, Says Poll

Thomas Mulcair speaks to the CUPE 50th Anniversary National Convention

http://new.livestream.com/cupescfp/convention-2013/videos/32856759

Linda McQuaig Is The NDP Candidate for Toronto-Centre

Congratulations to Linda McQuaig who won the NDP nomination today to be their candidate for the upcoming Toronto-Centre federal riding.

http://www.thestar.com/yourtoronto/education/2013/09/15/linda_mcquaig_wins_ndp_nomination_in_toronto_centre.html

The Harper Government's War On Science - an excellent chronology

From Science Blogs - The Canadian War On Science: A Long Unexaggerated, Devastating Chronological Indictment by John Dupuis.

Excerpt:
This is a brief chronology of the current Conservative Canadian government’s long campaign to undermine evidence-based scientific, environmental and technical decision-making. It is a government that is beholden to big business, particularly big oil, and that makes every attempt to shape public policy to that end. It is a government that fundamentally doesn’t believe in science. It is a government that is more interested in keeping its corporate masters happy than in protecting the environment.

Click the link for the details.

BC - NDP Lose The Election, But The Liberals Lose Their Leader

Christy Clark may have led her party to a stunning upset against all predictions, but she lost her own seat to the NDP's David Eby.

Elections BC: Vancouver-Point Grey results.

My two cents on why the NDP lost: Conservative party support swung to the Liberals to stop the NDP, and the youth vote, which strongly supports the NDP, didn't show up to vote.

Ontario NDP Want To Hear From You On The Budget

The Ontario NDP would like to hear your feedback on the budget before deciding on supporting it or not. The Liberals sort of supported the NDP demands, but not exactly.

Here is a link to a table that shows what the NDP demanded and what the Liberals offered.

As you can see, some of the items the Liberals decided to offer to bring in partially or sometime within a number of years. Other items, the Liberals offered even more funding.

Give feedback to the NDP on the budget here at yoursayontario.ca

Ontario Liberals On The Verge of Forcing An Election

To make a minority government work, the party in power needs the support of enough members of parliament to pass confidence-vote legislation like the budget. This can be done on an issue by issue basis, or, by coming to an on-going agreement with one or more opposition parties to form a coalition government.

Currently, in Ontario, the Progressive Conservative party under Tim Hudak has been chomping at the bit for an election. They have been uncooperative for some time, looking to gain power for themselves instead of looking to get things done for the people of Ontario.

So, the governing minority Liberals, now under Kathleen Wynne, have been appearing to be willing to work with the NDP to pass legislation. With this in mind, Andrea Horwath's NDP have asked for some things to be added/changed in the upcoming Ontario Budget. 

Here is what the NDP demands include:

• Close corporate tax loopholes (while running a deficit, it makes no sense to allow so much potential income to escape)
• Reduce car insurance rates by 15 per cent (Ontario has the highest rates in Canada)
• Introduce new measures to help reduce youth unemployment
• Strengthen health care
• Improve Welfare rules
• Improve support for home care for seniors
• Generally make life more affordable for Ontarians

At first, it seemed, for a while, that the Liberals were going to meet the NDP demands and get a budget passed. However, Horwath has said that recent meetings over the budget have been "unproductive" and that the Liberals have not offered a clear agenda.

The most recent item proposed to meet the NDP demand was a relatively insignificant amount to improve support for home care for seniors. 

From the Toronto Star:

On Tuesday, Wynne, Finance Minister Charles Sousa and Health Minister Deb Matthews tried to meet a key NDP demand by announcing $260 million in additional funding for home-care services.

But Horwath remained unimpressed, which infuriated the premier.

“This is not a political game. This is not a ping-pong game about ‘you put out a policy and I’ll put out a policy, and we’ll see which one we can fight about and where we land,’ ” Wynne scolded her rival. “We will not be held hostage to a list, an arbitrary list.

“It’s not that it’s a Liberal budget, it’s not that it’s an NDP budget, or it’s a Conservative budget. It’s the right budget for the people of Ontario,” the premier said.

Horwath, who told reporters she was taken aback by Wynne’s “arrogance,” said it’s about delivering for Ontarians, not the NDP.

“People have told us that they’re looking for change — simple, affordable change — that makes their lives better,” Horwath said. “They’ve been promised it over and over again but constantly find that they’re being asked to pay more and expect less from their government.

“New Democrats have been clear since the throne speech. If we are going to support a budget, it has to create jobs, strengthen health care and make life more affordable for Ontarians,” she added.

It seems apparent that the Ontario Liberals are purposely dragging their feet when it comes to trying to make the government work for Ontarians. This would point to them actually wanting an election, but not wanting to be the ones to seem to bring about an election.

If there is an election in Ontario soon, people should realize it will be the fault of the parties unwilling to make the government work for Ontarians (The PCs for being totally unwilling to negotiate for things for Ontarians, and the Liberals, for being unwilling to work with the only opposition party remaining who IS willing to negotiate for the good of Ontarians).

Rob Ford Attempts To Keep Toronto From Having Input On Transit Funding

Rob Ford and his council lackeys want to differ discussing transit funding until AFTER Metrolinx' deadline to agree on what they will present to the province - in other words, until after it is too late to have their input considered by Metrolinx in their recommendations to the province.

Typical Rob Ford/Ford Nation idiocy.

The mayor should be doing all he can to encourage ideas and debate on this issue in order to come up with some input for Metrolinx BEFORE this deadline. Instead, he is burying his head in the sand and trying to stifle progress, as usual.

Transit Fees: Ford, Councillors Headed For A Showdown

People Aren't Smart Enough for Democracy to Flourish, Scientists Say

People Aren't Smart Enough For Democracy To Flourish, Scientists Say

This article touches on a core problem for democracy. But add to this the fact that the corporate media and the corporate parties (Conservatives and Liberals in Canada) prey on this weakness of the populace in order to sway the people to vote against the people's own interests. This makes anything that improves the democratic process, like proportional representation (or even procedures that take baby steps toward P.R.), critical to helping make democracy work better for the people. Better education and less corporate control of the media are also critical for democracy to flourish. 

Some may try to argue, as if this is a different factor, that there are many people who just don't care enough about politics. This is not a different factor, but a result of the success of the propaganda of the corporate media/parties. Those people not smart enough to understand the importance of politics are convinced by the propaganda of the corporate media/parties to not care about politics. They will vehemently deny that they have been influenced, but they have (if they hadn't been influenced, they would care).  These people end up not voting, and convincing others to either not vote or to spoil their votes in one way or another.  This totally plays into what the corporate parties want - less involvement in politics by the populace = the more they can control politics. Politics in a vibrant democracy, is controlled by the people. In a failing democracy, politics is controlled by a few in government or in political parties whose true agenda is mainly to hold onto power by reducing the input from and control by the people.

ON NDP Stance on Funding for Public Transit

The other day, Martin Regg Cohn wrote a horribly twisted piece of anti-NDP propaganda in the Toronto Star. 

Andrea Horwath and the ON NDP are not changing their stance on any of this. They are still looking at the root cause of the money problems for public transit - the provincial and federal government increasingly cutting corporate taxes and making up the loss of revenue on the backs of everyone else. Public transit used to be funded by the province and the feds. That made sense. Then this funding was removed to pay for corporate tax cuts. The NDP is saying lets get back to sensible taxation of the corporations and sensible funding of large projects (like public transit).

Continuing with the aim of constantly giving to the rich and corporations, and, at the same time, taking more and more from the rest of us, is a plan that cannot continue (unsustainable) and a plan that is very unfair. It is also a plan of the corporate parties (Liberals and Cons). It is precisely because of this plan that our public transit is suffering and begging for money. This plan is why money has been pulled out from under public transit over the years by the provincial and federal governments. When the Chretien-Martin government massively cut transfers to the provinces, the provinces then began to massively cut programs and funding in the provinces (remember what Harris did in Ontario, including removal of provincial funding from public transit?). And besides these cuts, the Ontario governments have continued to reduce their funds by steadily decreasing corporate taxes to a ridiculously low amount - and STILL plan to continue cutting this revenue source for the province. The end result is that many important things go underfunded and the funds now have to come from those who can least afford to pay. 

Horwath and the ON NDP want to reverse this trend and stop trying to force those least able to pay, to pay for everything. I support this stand by the ON NDP.
They are not so much against new funding sources for transit, but FOR old sensible funding sources for transit.

Three Tory Nutters Escape

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/01/31/three_tory_mps_ask_rcmp_to_investigate_some_abortions_as_homicides.html

What can I say? How did these 3 get loose from their leash? How can this be a good thing for the Conservatives?

They know that abortion is not homicide by law in this country. Hopefully the RCMP will tell them so and this will end there.