Tuesday, 14 October 2008

Canada Election 2008 Predictions

Here are my predictions based on the last polls and polling trends:


Conservatives: 115
Liberals: 86
NDP: 51
Bloc: 53
Independent: 2
Green: 0

NL: Con 2, Lib 4, NDP 1
PE: Lib 4
NS: Con 1, Lib 5, NDP 4, Ind 1
NB: Con 2, Lib 7, NDP 1
QC: Con 7, Lib 13, NDP 1, Bloc 53, Ind 1
ON: Con 45, Lib 39, NDP 21
MB: Con 6, Lib 3, NDP 5
SK: Con 10, Lib 1, NDP 3
AB: Con 27, NDP 1
BC: Con 15, Lib 8, NDP 13
Yukon: Lib 1
Western Arctic: NDP 1
Nunavut: Lib 1

[Correction: I've made the corrections above. The error was: MB should have been Con 6, Lib 3 (not 2) and NDP 5 (not 6). This changes the totals to Con 115, Lib 86, NDP 51, Bloc 53 and indepedent 2.]


NL 7
Avalon Conservative
Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor Liberal
Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte Liberal
Labrador Liberal
Random--Burin--St. George's Liberal
St. John's East NDP
St. John's South--Mount Pearl Conservative
PE 4
Cardigan Liberal
Charlottetown Liberal
Egmont Liberal
Malpeque Liberal
NS 11
Cape Breton--Canso Liberal
Central Nova Conservative
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley independent
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour NDP
Halifax NDP
Halifax West Liberal
Kings--Hants Liberal
Sackville--Eastern Shore NDP
South Shore--St. Margaret's NDP
Sydney--Victoria Liberal
West Nova Liberal
NB 10
Acadie--Bathurst NDP
Beauséjour Liberal
Fredericton Liberal
Fundy Royal Conservative
Madawaska--Restigouche Liberal
Miramichi Liberal
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest Conservative
Saint John Liberal
Tobique--Mactaquac Liberal
QC 75
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou Bloc
Abitibi--Témiscamingue Bloc
Ahuntsic Bloc
Alfred-Pellan Bloc
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel Bloc
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour Bloc
Beauce Conservative
Beauharnois--Salaberry Bloc
Beauport--Limoilou Bloc
Berthier--Maskinongé Bloc
Bourassa Liberal
Brome--Missisquoi Bloc
Brossard--La Prairie Bloc
Chambly--Borduas Bloc
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Bloc
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant Bloc
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Bloc
Compton--Stanstead Bloc
Drummond Bloc
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine Bloc
Gatineau Bloc
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia Bloc
Hochelaga Bloc
Honoré-Mercier Liberal
Hull--Aylmer Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber Bloc
Joliette Bloc
Jonquière--Alma Conservative
La Pointe-de-l'Île Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal
LaSalle--Émard Liberal
Laurentides--Labelle Bloc
Laurier--Sainte-Marie Bloc
Laval Bloc
Laval--Les Îles Liberal
Lévis--Bellechasse Conservative
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher Bloc
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Conservative
Louis-Hébert Bloc
Louis-Saint-Laurent Conservative
Manicouagan Bloc
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Bloc
Mégantic--L'Érable Conservative
Montcalm Bloc
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup Bloc
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord Bloc
Mount Royal Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine Liberal
Outremont NDP
Papineau Liberal
Pierrefonds--Dollard Liberal
Pontiac Bloc
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier independent
Québec Bloc
Repentigny Bloc
Richmond--Arthabaska Bloc
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques Bloc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Bloc
Rivière-du-Nord Bloc
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean Conservative
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie Bloc
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot Bloc
Saint-Jean Bloc
Saint-Lambert Bloc
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville Liberal
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel Liberal
Saint-Maurice--Champlain Bloc
Shefford Bloc
Sherbrooke Bloc
Terrebonne--Blainville Bloc
Trois-Rivières Bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges Bloc
Verchères--Les Patriotes Bloc
Westmount--Ville-Marie Liberal
ON 106
Ajax--Pickering Liberal
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing NDP
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale Conservative
Barrie Conservative
Beaches--East York NDP
Bramalea--Gore--Malton Liberal
Brampton West Liberal
Brampton--Springdale Liberal
Brant Conservative
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Conservative
Burlington Conservative
Cambridge Conservative
Carleton--Mississippi Mills Conservative
Chatham-Kent--Essex Conservative
Davenport Liberal
Don Valley East Liberal
Don Valley West Liberal
Dufferin--Caledon Conservative
Durham Conservative
Eglinton--Lawrence Liberal
Elgin--Middlesex--London Conservative
Essex Conservative
Etobicoke Centre Liberal
Etobicoke North Liberal
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Liberal
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Conservative
Guelph Liberal
Haldimand--Norfolk Conservative
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock Conservative
Halton Conservative
Hamilton Centre NDP
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek NDP
Hamilton Mountain NDP
Huron--Bruce Conservative
Kenora NDP
Kingston and the Islands Liberal
Kitchener Centre Liberal
Kitchener--Conestoga Conservative
Kitchener--Waterloo Liberal
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Conservative
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington Conservative
Leeds--Grenville Conservative
London North Centre Liberal
London West Conservative
London--Fanshawe NDP
Markham--Unionville Liberal
Mississauga East--Cooksville Liberal
Mississauga South Conservative
Mississauga--Brampton South Liberal
Mississauga--Erindale Conservative
Mississauga--Streetsville Liberal
Nepean--Carleton Conservative
Newmarket--Aurora Liberal
Niagara Falls Conservative
Niagara West--Glanbrook Conservative
Nickel Belt NDP
Nipissing--Timiskaming Liberal
Northumberland--Quinte West Conservative
Oak Ridges--Markham Liberal
Oakville Conservative
Oshawa NDP
Ottawa Centre NDP
Ottawa South Liberal
Ottawa West--Nepean Conservative
Ottawa--Orléans Conservative
Ottawa--Vanier Liberal
Oxford Conservative
Parkdale--High Park NDP
Parry Sound--Muskoka Conservative
Perth--Wellington Conservative
Peterborough Conservative
Pickering--Scarborough East Liberal
Prince Edward--Hastings Conservative
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke Conservative
Richmond Hill Liberal
Sarnia--Lambton Conservative
Sault Ste. Marie NDP
Scarborough Centre Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Liberal
Scarborough--Agincourt Liberal
Scarborough--Guildwood Liberal
Scarborough--Rouge River Liberal
Simcoe North Conservative
Simcoe--Grey Conservative
St. Catharines Conservative
St. Paul's Liberal
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry Conservative
Sudbury NDP
Thornhill Liberal
Thunder Bay--Rainy River NDP
Thunder Bay--Superior North NDP
Timmins--James Bay NDP
Toronto Centre Liberal
Toronto--Danforth NDP
Trinity--Spadina NDP
Vaughan Liberal
Welland NDP
Wellington--Halton Hills Conservative
Whitby--Oshawa Conservative
Willowdale Liberal
Windsor West NDP
Windsor--Tecumseh NDP
York Centre Liberal
York South--Weston Liberal
York West Liberal
York--Simcoe Conservative
MB 14
Brandon--Souris Conservative
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia Conservative
Churchill NDP
Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette Conservative
Elmwood--Transcona NDP
Kildonan--St. Paul Conservative
Portage--Lisgar Conservative
Provencher Conservative
Saint Boniface Liberal
Selkirk--Interlake NDP
Winnipeg Centre NDP
Winnipeg North NDP
Winnipeg South Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre Liberal
SK 14
Battlefords--Lloydminster Conservative
Blackstrap Conservative
Cypress Hills--Grasslands Conservative
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Conservative
Palliser NDP
Prince Albert Conservative
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre Conservative
Regina--Qu'Appelle NDP
Saskatoon--Humboldt Conservative
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar NDP
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin Conservative
Souris--Moose Mountain Conservative
Wascana Liberal
Yorkton--Melville Conservative
AB 28
Calgary Centre Conservative
Calgary Centre-North Conservative
Calgary East Conservative
Calgary Northeast Conservative
Calgary Southeast Conservative
Calgary Southwest Conservative
Calgary West Conservative
Calgary--Nose Hill Conservative
Crowfoot Conservative
Edmonton Centre Conservative
Edmonton East Conservative
Edmonton--Leduc Conservative
Edmonton--Mill Woods--Beaumont Conservative
Edmonton--Sherwood Park Conservative
Edmonton--Spruce Grove Conservative
Edmonton--St. Albert Conservative
Edmonton--Strathcona NDP
Fort McMurray--Athabasca Conservative
Lethbridge Conservative
Macleod Conservative
Medicine Hat Conservative
Peace River Conservative
Red Deer Conservative
Vegreville--Wainwright Conservative
Westlock--St. Paul Conservative
Wetaskiwin Conservative
Wild Rose Conservative
Yellowhead Conservative
BC 36
Abbotsford Conservative
British Columbia Southern Interior NDP
Burnaby--Douglas NDP
Burnaby--New Westminster NDP
Cariboo--Prince George Conservative
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon Conservative
Delta--Richmond East Conservative
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca NDP
Fleetwood--Port Kells Conservative
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo Conservative
Kelowna--Lake Country Conservative
Kootenay--Columbia Conservative
Langley Conservative
Nanaimo--Alberni Conservative
Nanaimo--Cowichan NDP
New Westminster--Coquitlam NDP
Newton--North Delta NDP
North Vancouver Liberal
Okanagan--Coquihalla Conservative
Okanagan--Shuswap Conservative
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission NDP
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam Conservative
Prince George--Peace River Conservative
Richmond Liberal
Saanich--Gulf Islands Liberal
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale Conservative
Surrey North NDP
Vancouver Centre Liberal
Vancouver East NDP
Vancouver Island North NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal
Vancouver Quadra Liberal
Vancouver South Liberal
Victoria NDP
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country Liberal
YK 1
Yukon Liberal
WA 1
Western Arctic NDP
NU 1
Nunavut Liberal


ricky said...

That is a great list. I hope you are right. I only wish we had the Liberal and NDP numbers adding to 155!

I can't make them add to 155!

James Curran said...

Um. Good work. Lots of time spent. However, the Dippers will not be anywhere near what you are predicting. They are not going to win Welland, Stoney Creek, Parkdale or Hamilton Mountain. 36 seats at best.

Thor said...

I figure the NDP will get at least 45 seats. I know by saying they will get 51 seats it seems like wishful thinking, but the trends show the NDP steadily gaining ground in the last days of the campaign, so I gave them the benefit of the doubt in some close ridings.

James -
There are a number of very close races for the NDP across the country, but I would not list the 4 ridings you mentioned as close races.

Welland - the NDP were ahead by about 2,000 votes in the last polls (of the 4 here, this would be the closest one).

Stoney Creek - The NDP were ahead by about 5,000 votes in the last polls

Parkdale-High Park - Peggy Nash of the NDP has been in the lead in the polls through the whole campaign. She now has the biggest lead yet during the campaign by about 7,000 votes in the last polls

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP are ahead here by about 7,000 votes in the last polls.