Canada Election 2008 Predictions
Here are my predictions based on the last polls and polling trends:
Seats
Conservatives: 115
Liberals: 86
NDP: 51
Bloc: 53
Independent: 2
Green: 0
NL: Con 2, Lib 4, NDP 1
PE: Lib 4
NS: Con 1, Lib 5, NDP 4, Ind 1
NB: Con 2, Lib 7, NDP 1
QC: Con 7, Lib 13, NDP 1, Bloc 53, Ind 1
ON: Con 45, Lib 39, NDP 21
MB: Con 6, Lib 3, NDP 5
SK: Con 10, Lib 1, NDP 3
AB: Con 27, NDP 1
BC: Con 15, Lib 8, NDP 13
Yukon: Lib 1
Western Arctic: NDP 1
Nunavut: Lib 1
[Correction: I've made the corrections above. The error was: MB should have been Con 6, Lib 3 (not 2) and NDP 5 (not 6). This changes the totals to Con 115, Lib 86, NDP 51, Bloc 53 and indepedent 2.]
Ridings
NL | 7 |
Avalon | Conservative |
Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor | Liberal |
Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte | Liberal |
Labrador | Liberal |
Random--Burin--St. George's | Liberal |
St. John's East | NDP |
St. John's South--Mount Pearl | Conservative |
PE | 4 |
Cardigan | Liberal |
Charlottetown | Liberal |
Egmont | Liberal |
Malpeque | Liberal |
NS | 11 |
Cape Breton--Canso | Liberal |
Central Nova | Conservative |
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley | independent |
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour | NDP |
Halifax | NDP |
Halifax West | Liberal |
Kings--Hants | Liberal |
Sackville--Eastern Shore | NDP |
South Shore--St. Margaret's | NDP |
Sydney--Victoria | Liberal |
West Nova | Liberal |
NB | 10 |
Acadie--Bathurst | NDP |
Beauséjour | Liberal |
Fredericton | Liberal |
Fundy Royal | Conservative |
Madawaska--Restigouche | Liberal |
Miramichi | Liberal |
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe | Liberal |
New Brunswick Southwest | Conservative |
Saint John | Liberal |
Tobique--Mactaquac | Liberal |
QC | 75 |
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou | Bloc |
Abitibi--Témiscamingue | Bloc |
Ahuntsic | Bloc |
Alfred-Pellan | Bloc |
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel | Bloc |
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour | Bloc |
Beauce | Conservative |
Beauharnois--Salaberry | Bloc |
Beauport--Limoilou | Bloc |
Berthier--Maskinongé | Bloc |
Bourassa | Liberal |
Brome--Missisquoi | Bloc |
Brossard--La Prairie | Bloc |
Chambly--Borduas | Bloc |
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles | Bloc |
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant | Bloc |
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord | Bloc |
Compton--Stanstead | Bloc |
Drummond | Bloc |
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Bloc |
Gatineau | Bloc |
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia | Bloc |
Hochelaga | Bloc |
Honoré-Mercier | Liberal |
Hull--Aylmer | Liberal |
Jeanne-Le Ber | Bloc |
Joliette | Bloc |
Jonquière--Alma | Conservative |
La Pointe-de-l'Île | Bloc |
Lac-Saint-Louis | Liberal |
LaSalle--Émard | Liberal |
Laurentides--Labelle | Bloc |
Laurier--Sainte-Marie | Bloc |
Laval | Bloc |
Laval--Les Îles | Liberal |
Lévis--Bellechasse | Conservative |
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher | Bloc |
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | Conservative |
Louis-Hébert | Bloc |
Louis-Saint-Laurent | Conservative |
Manicouagan | Bloc |
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | Bloc |
Mégantic--L'Érable | Conservative |
Montcalm | Bloc |
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup | Bloc |
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord | Bloc |
Mount Royal | Liberal |
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine | Liberal |
Outremont | NDP |
Papineau | Liberal |
Pierrefonds--Dollard | Liberal |
Pontiac | Bloc |
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier | independent |
Québec | Bloc |
Repentigny | Bloc |
Richmond--Arthabaska | Bloc |
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques | Bloc |
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles | Bloc |
Rivière-du-Nord | Bloc |
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean | Conservative |
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie | Bloc |
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert | Bloc |
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot | Bloc |
Saint-Jean | Bloc |
Saint-Lambert | Bloc |
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville | Liberal |
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel | Liberal |
Saint-Maurice--Champlain | Bloc |
Shefford | Bloc |
Sherbrooke | Bloc |
Terrebonne--Blainville | Bloc |
Trois-Rivières | Bloc |
Vaudreuil-Soulanges | Bloc |
Verchères--Les Patriotes | Bloc |
Westmount--Ville-Marie | Liberal |
ON | 106 |
Ajax--Pickering | Liberal |
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing | NDP |
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale | Conservative |
Barrie | Conservative |
Beaches--East York | NDP |
Bramalea--Gore--Malton | Liberal |
Brampton West | Liberal |
Brampton--Springdale | Liberal |
Brant | Conservative |
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound | Conservative |
Burlington | Conservative |
Cambridge | Conservative |
Carleton--Mississippi Mills | Conservative |
Chatham-Kent--Essex | Conservative |
Davenport | Liberal |
Don Valley East | Liberal |
Don Valley West | Liberal |
Dufferin--Caledon | Conservative |
Durham | Conservative |
Eglinton--Lawrence | Liberal |
Elgin--Middlesex--London | Conservative |
Essex | Conservative |
Etobicoke Centre | Liberal |
Etobicoke North | Liberal |
Etobicoke--Lakeshore | Liberal |
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell | Conservative |
Guelph | Liberal |
Haldimand--Norfolk | Conservative |
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock | Conservative |
Halton | Conservative |
Hamilton Centre | NDP |
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek | NDP |
Hamilton Mountain | NDP |
Huron--Bruce | Conservative |
Kenora | NDP |
Kingston and the Islands | Liberal |
Kitchener Centre | Liberal |
Kitchener--Conestoga | Conservative |
Kitchener--Waterloo | Liberal |
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex | Conservative |
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington | Conservative |
Leeds--Grenville | Conservative |
London North Centre | Liberal |
London West | Conservative |
London--Fanshawe | NDP |
Markham--Unionville | Liberal |
Mississauga East--Cooksville | Liberal |
Mississauga South | Conservative |
Mississauga--Brampton South | Liberal |
Mississauga--Erindale | Conservative |
Mississauga--Streetsville | Liberal |
Nepean--Carleton | Conservative |
Newmarket--Aurora | Liberal |
Niagara Falls | Conservative |
Niagara West--Glanbrook | Conservative |
Nickel Belt | NDP |
Nipissing--Timiskaming | Liberal |
Northumberland--Quinte West | Conservative |
Oak Ridges--Markham | Liberal |
Oakville | Conservative |
Oshawa | NDP |
Ottawa Centre | NDP |
Ottawa South | Liberal |
Ottawa West--Nepean | Conservative |
Ottawa--Orléans | Conservative |
Ottawa--Vanier | Liberal |
Oxford | Conservative |
Parkdale--High Park | NDP |
Parry Sound--Muskoka | Conservative |
Perth--Wellington | Conservative |
Peterborough | Conservative |
Pickering--Scarborough East | Liberal |
Prince Edward--Hastings | Conservative |
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke | Conservative |
Richmond Hill | Liberal |
Sarnia--Lambton | Conservative |
Sault Ste. Marie | NDP |
Scarborough Centre | Liberal |
Scarborough Southwest | Liberal |
Scarborough--Agincourt | Liberal |
Scarborough--Guildwood | Liberal |
Scarborough--Rouge River | Liberal |
Simcoe North | Conservative |
Simcoe--Grey | Conservative |
St. Catharines | Conservative |
St. Paul's | Liberal |
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry | Conservative |
Sudbury | NDP |
Thornhill | Liberal |
Thunder Bay--Rainy River | NDP |
Thunder Bay--Superior North | NDP |
Timmins--James Bay | NDP |
Toronto Centre | Liberal |
Toronto--Danforth | NDP |
Trinity--Spadina | NDP |
Vaughan | Liberal |
Welland | NDP |
Wellington--Halton Hills | Conservative |
Whitby--Oshawa | Conservative |
Willowdale | Liberal |
Windsor West | NDP |
Windsor--Tecumseh | NDP |
York Centre | Liberal |
York South--Weston | Liberal |
York West | Liberal |
York--Simcoe | Conservative |
MB | 14 |
Brandon--Souris | Conservative |
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia | Conservative |
Churchill | NDP |
Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette | Conservative |
Elmwood--Transcona | NDP |
Kildonan--St. Paul | Conservative |
Portage--Lisgar | Conservative |
Provencher | Conservative |
Saint Boniface | Liberal |
Selkirk--Interlake | NDP |
Winnipeg Centre | NDP |
Winnipeg North | NDP |
Winnipeg South | Liberal |
Winnipeg South Centre | Liberal |
SK | 14 |
Battlefords--Lloydminster | Conservative |
Blackstrap | Conservative |
Cypress Hills--Grasslands | Conservative |
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River | Conservative |
Palliser | NDP |
Prince Albert | Conservative |
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre | Conservative |
Regina--Qu'Appelle | NDP |
Saskatoon--Humboldt | Conservative |
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar | NDP |
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin | Conservative |
Souris--Moose Mountain | Conservative |
Wascana | Liberal |
Yorkton--Melville | Conservative |
AB | 28 |
Calgary Centre | Conservative |
Calgary Centre-North | Conservative |
Calgary East | Conservative |
Calgary Northeast | Conservative |
Calgary Southeast | Conservative |
Calgary Southwest | Conservative |
Calgary West | Conservative |
Calgary--Nose Hill | Conservative |
Crowfoot | Conservative |
Edmonton Centre | Conservative |
Edmonton East | Conservative |
Edmonton--Leduc | Conservative |
Edmonton--Mill Woods--Beaumont | Conservative |
Edmonton--Sherwood Park | Conservative |
Edmonton--Spruce Grove | Conservative |
Edmonton--St. Albert | Conservative |
Edmonton--Strathcona | NDP |
Fort McMurray--Athabasca | Conservative |
Lethbridge | Conservative |
Macleod | Conservative |
Medicine Hat | Conservative |
Peace River | Conservative |
Red Deer | Conservative |
Vegreville--Wainwright | Conservative |
Westlock--St. Paul | Conservative |
Wetaskiwin | Conservative |
Wild Rose | Conservative |
Yellowhead | Conservative |
BC | 36 |
Abbotsford | Conservative |
British Columbia Southern Interior | NDP |
Burnaby--Douglas | NDP |
Burnaby--New Westminster | NDP |
Cariboo--Prince George | Conservative |
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon | Conservative |
Delta--Richmond East | Conservative |
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca | NDP |
Fleetwood--Port Kells | Conservative |
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo | Conservative |
Kelowna--Lake Country | Conservative |
Kootenay--Columbia | Conservative |
Langley | Conservative |
Nanaimo--Alberni | Conservative |
Nanaimo--Cowichan | NDP |
New Westminster--Coquitlam | NDP |
Newton--North Delta | NDP |
North Vancouver | Liberal |
Okanagan--Coquihalla | Conservative |
Okanagan--Shuswap | Conservative |
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission | NDP |
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam | Conservative |
Prince George--Peace River | Conservative |
Richmond | Liberal |
Saanich--Gulf Islands | Liberal |
Skeena--Bulkley Valley | NDP |
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale | Conservative |
Surrey North | NDP |
Vancouver Centre | Liberal |
Vancouver East | NDP |
Vancouver Island North | NDP |
Vancouver Kingsway | Liberal |
Vancouver Quadra | Liberal |
Vancouver South | Liberal |
Victoria | NDP |
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country | Liberal |
YK | 1 |
Yukon | Liberal |
WA | 1 |
Western Arctic | NDP |
NU | 1 |
Nunavut | Liberal |
3 comments:
That is a great list. I hope you are right. I only wish we had the Liberal and NDP numbers adding to 155!
I can't make them add to 155!
Um. Good work. Lots of time spent. However, the Dippers will not be anywhere near what you are predicting. They are not going to win Welland, Stoney Creek, Parkdale or Hamilton Mountain. 36 seats at best.
I figure the NDP will get at least 45 seats. I know by saying they will get 51 seats it seems like wishful thinking, but the trends show the NDP steadily gaining ground in the last days of the campaign, so I gave them the benefit of the doubt in some close ridings.
James -
There are a number of very close races for the NDP across the country, but I would not list the 4 ridings you mentioned as close races.
Welland - the NDP were ahead by about 2,000 votes in the last polls (of the 4 here, this would be the closest one).
Stoney Creek - The NDP were ahead by about 5,000 votes in the last polls
Parkdale-High Park - Peggy Nash of the NDP has been in the lead in the polls through the whole campaign. She now has the biggest lead yet during the campaign by about 7,000 votes in the last polls
Hamilton Mountain - The NDP are ahead here by about 7,000 votes in the last polls.
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