Wednesday, 23 March 2011

NDP on the rise in Quebec - now placing 2nd, ahead of Liberals and Conservatives

NDP leads federal parties vying to capture Quebec imagination - The Globe and Mail
Bloc 41%
NDP 20%
Liberals 18%
Conservatives 16%

Date of poll: just before March 15, 2011


ck said...

I don't see how this would translate into seats for the NDP though.

I live in la Belle Province and it's Bloc all the way. In Quebec City, because of the arena debacle, Regis Labeaume will surely be running an ABC campaign and that will translate more seats for the Bloc, not Liberals or NDP in and around Quebec City.

Bernard Genereux down river in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup may well also go down. The Bloc have selected a home town star from St-Jean-Port-Joli to run against him.

Mulcair may well keep his Outremont seat, but that will be a very tight race against Cauchon. Mulcair ran against 2 rather weak candidates before and the last election, his vote count went down and it was close against Sebastien Dhavernas. He can't afford to sit on his laurels in Outremont.

The other best NDP chance would be Francoise Boivin in Gatineau where it has been a close 3-4 way race in the past several years against Bloc Richard Nadeau, including way back when she ran as a Liberal.

The Harpercons will probably take Lac St-Louis with Larry Smith, but Anglo Montreal in the West-Island, as I've been discovering has become as right winged as Calgary. That other Harpercon, Agop Evereklian in DDO-Pierrefonds has an outside chance as well.

Plus, the big upset would be Mount-Royal, the Liberal stronghold. Rumour has it that the Harpercons are courting Robert Libman. A prominent figure in Montreal's Jewish community and the founder of the short-lived provincial Equality Party in the 80s; a protest party against the QC Libs for not standing up enough for Anglo rights in Quebec. If Libman says yes, that riding could go Harpercon for the first time since 1940.

Thor said...

With the rise of the NDP in the polls in Quebec to be 2nd place overall, their chances of picking up more than the one seat they have are much higher.