Wednesday, 13 January 2010

Proroguing parliament results in a 10 point drop in the polls for Conservatives (so far)

Parliament shutdown leaves Tories, Liberals nearly tied: poll -
Last October, Strategic Counsel found 41 per cent support for Conservatives, 28 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the New Democrats. The newest numbers show 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 30 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP.

I think we will see the Conservative numbers drop more before they level off, as people become more informed about the issues. And the rallies on Jan. 23rd will help inform more people. I think we will see another significant drop in Conservative support after Jan. 23rd.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Two points:

(1) Given the margin of error (which I suspect to be at least 1% for the sample size although I have not looked it up), the Libs and Cons are actually tied, not nearly tied, and

(2) Given that SC tends to historically report Cons polls that are higher than those reported by other pollsters (e.g. even the 41% mentioned above was higher than those reported by others), one would suspect that the Libs could already be slightly ahead. lol.