Rob Ford Could Be Removed From Office In Early September

Mark Sept. 5, 6 and 7 on your calendars. That is when Toronto Mayor Rob Ford will be in court regarding his breach of a conflict of interest law. If the judge finds against him, he will be removed from office and banned from running for public office for 7 years.

Toronto Star
Mayor Rob Ford will be in court in early September refuting a conflict of interest allegation that, if proven, would force him from office.
Lawyer Clayton Ruby, representing a Toronto resident who filed the complaint, announced Friday that Superior Court Justice Charles Hackland will hear the case Sept. 5, 6 and 7.

Tom Mulcair And NDP In The Lead, Confidence In Harper Plummets

Two polls were released today: Forum (April 25 - sample of 1744), and Nanos (April 18 - sample of 1200). The Forum poll, having a much larger sample, is the more accurate of the two. It is also more recent, so it will give us a better picture regarding recent events in Parliament.

Forum poll findings
The findings here are that the NDP is now in the lead, and Tom Mulcair's popularity has shot up.
Comparison between March 30 and April 25 Forum Polls:

Party - March 30 - April 25 - change

NDP - 34% - 36% - +2%

Con - 36% - 33% - -3%
Lib  - 19% - 22% - +3%
Green - 5% - 2% - -3%
Bloc - 5% - 6% - +1%


Leader Popularity - March 30 - April 25 - change

Mulcair - 32% - 41% - +9%

Harper - 34% - 34% - no change
Rae     - 36% - 35% - -1%

The significant finding here in the Forum results is that Mulcair's popularity has surged ahead of the other leaders. Also, this is the first poll showing the NDP to take the lead with more than a 2 point spread. (From March 18 to April 18, 7 polls (Environics, Forum, Harris-Decima, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Nanos) all had the NDP and Conservatives either tied or within 2 points of each other (except the Nanos poll, which has the Conservatives ahead by 3)).

This Forum poll also shows the NDP moving into a minority government position:
Seat projections from this poll compared to seats won at election time:

Party - Election - April 25, 2012

NDP - 103 - 133 (forming a minority government)

Con - 166 - 118
Lib  - 34 - 54
Bloc - 4 - 2
Green - 1 - 1


Nanos poll findings
The previous Nanos poll was at the end of Feb - a time when the NDP had their interim leader Nycole Turmel. During this period the Liberals were more popular than the NDP. The findings here show that the NDP are on the rise, the Liberals have dropped back closer to their election-level popularity and that the Conservatives support remains about the same (although down from their election level of 40%). The significant findings in the Nanos poll are the drops in ratings for Stephen Harper in trustworthiness, competency and vision for Canada.

Party - Feb. 29 - April 18 - change
NDP - 25% - 32% - +7%
Con  - 36% - 35% - -1%
Lib   - 30% - 23% - -7%
Green - 3% - 4% - +1%
Bloc   - 5% - 4% - -1%

Leader - Feb 29 - April 18 - change

Leader Trustworthiness
Turmel - 7% - Mulcair - 20% - +13%

Harper - 32% - 20% - -12%

Rae - 20% - 14% - -6%

Leader Competence
Turmel - 6% - Mulcair - 17% - +11%

Harper - 38% - 24% - -14%

Rae - 19% - 12% - -7%

Leader Vision for Canada
Turmel - 8% - Mulcair - 17% - +9%

Harper - 33% - 22% - -11%

Rae - 16% - 11% - -5%

In these specific Nanos leadership ratings we can see that Canadians' confidence in Harper has plummeted, dropped significantly for Rae, and people have much more confidence in Mulcair than Turmel as leader of the NDP.

Forum Research latest poll results
Nanos latest poll results
News articles on these results from The Toronto Star, CBC, The National Post, The Globe & Mail.

Federal NDP On The Rise In Vote-Rich Ontario

ThreeHundredEight.com: Massive NDP leads in Quebec, Ontario competitive: Two federal polls conducted recently in Quebec by Forum Research and CROP indicate that the New Democrats have not only taken the lead, th...

The Federal NDP are doing well in Quebec and improving in Ontario.
The big story here is not how well they are doing in Quebec as that has been known since the end of March (there have been a number of polls showing that they are, by far, back on top in Quebec since the convention March 24th), but how well they are doing in Ontario compared to election time.

Here is a comparison of how the parties are faring in Ontario

Party - Election - April 18, 2012
Con - 44% - 36% (down 8%)
NDP - 26% - 32% (up 6%)
Lib - 25% - 24% (down 1%)

(Source: Forum Research poll April 23, 2012 - sample size 980)

The general trend here is that the Conservatives are steadily dropping, the Liberals have stayed about the same, while the NDP has continued the trend of increasing support that started just before the election. This is huge for the NDP as Ontario has so many seats, and for the NDP to become the next government, they will need to significantly increase their seats here. If they can continue this trend of increasing support in Ontario over the next 3 years, we will see an NDP government in 2015.

Ontario NDP Overtake Liberals, Horwath Riding High

The latest Forum Research poll has the Ontario NDP overtaking the Liberals in support and Andrea Horwath continuing to be, by far, the most popular of the 3 main party leaders.

Current party standings compared to standings at election time Oct 2011:

NDP 31% (23%) - up 8%
PC 34% (35%) - up 1%
Lib 28% (38%) - down 10%
Green 3% (5%) - up 1%

Current leader popularity compared to Jan 2011:
Horwath (NDP) 46% (40%)
McGuinty (Lib) 30% (33%)
Hudak (PC) 24% (26%)

The NDP budget proposals for a wealthy surtax and to cap provincial executive salaries are very popular.

For more details, see
Toronto Star: Ontario budget: Andrea Horwath's tax-the-rich scheme 'hugely popular', poll suggests

Forum Research

kirbycairo: Why I don't Believe in a Merger. . . . .

kirbycairo: Why I don't Believe in a Merger. . . . .: I don't think I am naive. Nor am I ignorant of contemporary or historical political issues; I have made a careful study of political philoso...

Great post by Kirbycairo. Click the link above to read the whole thing.

I've never really understood the push for a merger either. Here we have 2 very different political parties - very different views, policies, ideals and values. I think those all for it from the Liberal side of things see it as a way to grow the Liberal party back up, and destroy the NDP. No other explanation makes much sense. The NDP was a thorn in the backside of the Liberals for so long, but now the NDP is the rising star and the Liberals are in the dog house. The Liberals are pissed and they want back in the sand box. What better way than to cheat their way in by promoting merging with a party who they claim to be like, but are so unlike in practice.

Those who claim they would like to see a merger between the NDP and the Liberals for the purpose of defeating the Harper Conservatives are very short-sighted.  You can't run a successful government solely on a negative aspect. There have to be other goals besides defeating an enemy. And the goals of the NDP and the Liberals differ almost as much as the NDP and the Conservatives. So, a merger between the NDP and the Liberals would never succeed in the long run.

Considering the record of the Liberals over the past 5 years, you would think there would be more talk of a merger between the Conservatives and the Liberals. 

Smack Stephen Harper

Frustrated with Harper and his government of looters in suits lying to us and taking our money to spend on jets that don't work and jails we don't need, and cheating to get elected? Take your frustrations out at Smack Stephen Harper!

After smacking him a few times, leave a comment.

Rob Ford Is Doing Bad, Bad Things

Centa says the questions of whether Ford improperly took funding from his family company and overspent his campaign limit are important to the provincial Municipal Elections Act, and to democracy itself.
“Mr. Ford was, and is, represented by excellent counsel and we think the interests of justice are best served when both parties are represented by capable counsel to . . . allow the court to make the best decision possible.”
Ruby cites the same pro bono principle but is more pointed when it comes to Ford’s conduct.
“I think (Ford) is doing bad, bad things,” Ruby said. “It’s not a left-right thing . . . He came in as a bully determined to demonize anyone who disagrees with him, and is a person whose approach to governance is not what I think is in the Canadian public interest.
“If Mayor Ford gets a pass, for whatever reason he may advance, why would everyone not get a pass, and then integrity doesn’t have the importance that the legislation of Ontario placed on it.” 
- From the Toronto Star: Mayor Rob Ford vs the lawyers

New NDP Ad Released

See the ad here:

Toronto Star: New NDP TV ad emphasizes continuity over change
“Throughout his public life, Tom Mulcair has a proven track-record of fighting for people,” said NDP National Director Chantal Vallerand in a statement. “These ads will help reach out to all those Canadians who have been abandoned by the Conservative government. Our message is quite simply that unlike Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair will fight for you.”

4th Poll In A Month Has NDP Tied With Conservatives

A Léger Marketing poll for The Gazette and Le Devoir April 2-4 shows the following support among decided voters:
NDP 33%
Conservatives 32%
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
[Bloc not listed but most likely about 6-7% nationally]


In Quebec:
NDP 47% (up 4 points since the election - up 19 points here since Thomas Mulcair was elected NDP leader)
Bloc 29%
Conservatives 10%
Liberals 10%

Which of the party leaders would make the best Prime Minister?:

don't know/refused 38%

Stephen Harper 25%

Thomas Mulcair 20%

Bob Rae 12%

Elizabeth May 5%

This is the 4th poll in a month that has the NDP and Conservatives tied (See here and here).

From the Montreal Gazette article:

“We see that support for the Conservatives is ... down nearly eight points since the last election,” he said. “So it’s a fairly significant drop for them.”

The Conservatives’ tumble began a couple of months ago, he said, adding the timing coincides with public discontent over such things as revelations of fraudulent robocalls pretending to come from Elections Canada and, just this week, revelations of a major cost overrun in the F-35 fighter jet program that was kept quiet before the last election.

...

The NDP finds its strongest support in three regions: Quebec, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia. 

...

Not only has support for the Conservatives dropped nationally since last year’s election victory, the Léger poll also finds that support for the NDP in Quebec has rebounded “in spectacular fashion” since January – beyond even its 2011 election results – since the party chose Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair as its new leader in late March. Support for the party has shot up 19 points since January, Dallaire said.

The NDP scores 47 per cent of support in Quebec in this poll, which is higher than the party’s 42.9 per cent share of the vote in the province in the 2011 election. 

...

3 Polls Affirm NDP Tied With Conservatives

The other day I wrote about 2 polls that showed the NDP tied with Conservatives for support. A third poll with more recent data affirms this trend. Harris-Decima has released their poll results (March 22-April 2) that show:

National support:
Conservatives 34%
NDP 32%
(a statistical tie between the NDP and the Conservatives)
Liberals 19%
Green 8%
Bloc 6%

The NDP are leading in BC (44%), Quebec (39%), and Atlantic Canada (36%). The 2 regions that the NDP lead in all three polls are BC and Quebec.

Some other numbers of note from the poll:

• The NDP has surged back in front in Quebec. Here, they stand at 39%, to 24% for the BQ, 14% for the Liberals, 14% for the Conservatives, and 8% for the Greens.
• The Conservatives are well in front in Ontario. The Conservatives stand at 41%, to 26% for the NDP, 24% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.
• The NDP holds a strong lead in BC. Here, they stand at 44%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 13% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.
• The Conservatives remain in front on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 45%, to 34% for the NDP, 13% for the Liberals, and 7% for the Greens. In Alberta the Conservatives are at 54%, to 19% for the NDP, 16% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.
• In Atlantic Canada, the NDP stands at 36%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 30% for the Liberals, and 3% for the Greens.

All of these polls show an overall trend when compared to the election: the Conservatives loosing ground, the NDP gaining ground, the Liberals stagnating and the Bloc and Green bouncing back slightly.

NDP Tied With Conservatives, And, Mulcair Doing Well

Two poll results from March (early March and then just after Mulcair won the leadership of the NDP), by Environics in early March and by Forum in late March, show the NDP tied with the Conservatives.

The Environics poll from March 6-18, 2012, had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30% each (a drop of 10% for the Conservatives). The Liberals were at 20%

The Forum poll from March 26-27, 2012 - just after Mulcair's first couple of days in Parliament as party leader , had the NDP and Conservatives tied at 35% each and the Liberals at 19% (a drop of 3% for the Conservatives, a rise of 7% for the NDP and a drop of 6% for the Liberals,  since the last Forum poll a month ago).

More details on the recent Forum poll with comparisons to their previous poll:

Most effective opposition:
NDP 40% (up from 32%)
Liberals 22% (down from 30%)

Approval rating of each leader (virtually tied):
Stephen Harper 34%
Thomas Mulcair 32%
Bob Rae 32%

Disapproval rating of each leader:
Thomas Mulcair: 22%
Bob Rae: 41%
Stephen Harper: 58%


26% say they are more likely to vote for the NDP now that Thomas Mulcair is the party leader. This includes 23% Liberal supporters, 8% Green party supporters, 40% Bloc supporters and 5% Conservative supporters.

Seat projections from this poll compared to seats at election time:
Conservatives: 151 (155)
NDP: 120 (103)
Liberals 25 (34)
Bloc 11 (4)
Green 1 (1)
This would result in a minority Conservative government.

Support for joint nomination meetings is dropping compared to a month ago:
NDP supporters 51% (59%)
Liberal supporters 50% (60%)

The NDP are leading in Quebec, The Prairies, and in BC.