Canada Election 2008 Predictions

Here are my predictions based on the last polls and polling trends:

Seats

Conservatives: 115
Liberals: 86
NDP: 51
Bloc: 53
Independent: 2
Green: 0

NL: Con 2, Lib 4, NDP 1
PE: Lib 4
NS: Con 1, Lib 5, NDP 4, Ind 1
NB: Con 2, Lib 7, NDP 1
QC: Con 7, Lib 13, NDP 1, Bloc 53, Ind 1
ON: Con 45, Lib 39, NDP 21
MB: Con 6, Lib 3, NDP 5
SK: Con 10, Lib 1, NDP 3
AB: Con 27, NDP 1
BC: Con 15, Lib 8, NDP 13
Yukon: Lib 1
Western Arctic: NDP 1
Nunavut: Lib 1

[Correction: I've made the corrections above. The error was: MB should have been Con 6, Lib 3 (not 2) and NDP 5 (not 6). This changes the totals to Con 115, Lib 86, NDP 51, Bloc 53 and indepedent 2.]

Ridings

NL	7
Avalon	Conservative
Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor	Liberal
Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte	Liberal
Labrador	Liberal
Random--Burin--St. George's	Liberal
St. John's East	NDP
St. John's South--Mount Pearl	Conservative
PE	4
Cardigan	Liberal
Charlottetown	Liberal
Egmont	Liberal
Malpeque	Liberal
NS	11
Cape Breton--Canso	Liberal
Central Nova	Conservative
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley	independent
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour	NDP
Halifax	NDP
Halifax West	Liberal
Kings--Hants	Liberal
Sackville--Eastern Shore	NDP
South Shore--St. Margaret's	NDP
Sydney--Victoria	Liberal
West Nova	Liberal
NB	10
Acadie--Bathurst	NDP
Beauséjour	Liberal
Fredericton	Liberal
Fundy Royal	Conservative
Madawaska--Restigouche	Liberal
Miramichi	Liberal
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe	Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest	Conservative
Saint John	Liberal
Tobique--Mactaquac	Liberal
QC	75
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou	Bloc
Abitibi--Témiscamingue	Bloc
Ahuntsic	Bloc
Alfred-Pellan	Bloc
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel	Bloc
Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour	Bloc
Beauce	Conservative
Beauharnois--Salaberry	Bloc
Beauport--Limoilou	Bloc
Berthier--Maskinongé	Bloc
Bourassa	Liberal
Brome--Missisquoi	Bloc
Brossard--La Prairie	Bloc
Chambly--Borduas	Bloc
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles	Bloc
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant	Bloc
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord	Bloc
Compton--Stanstead	Bloc
Drummond	Bloc
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Bloc
Gatineau	Bloc
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia	Bloc
Hochelaga	Bloc
Honoré-Mercier	Liberal
Hull--Aylmer	Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber	Bloc
Joliette	Bloc
Jonquière--Alma	Conservative
La Pointe-de-l'Île	Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis	Liberal
LaSalle--Émard	Liberal
Laurentides--Labelle	Bloc
Laurier--Sainte-Marie	Bloc
Laval	Bloc
Laval--Les Îles	Liberal
Lévis--Bellechasse	Conservative
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher	Bloc
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	Conservative
Louis-Hébert	Bloc
Louis-Saint-Laurent	Conservative
Manicouagan	Bloc
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	Bloc
Mégantic--L'Érable	Conservative
Montcalm	Bloc
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup	Bloc
Montmorency--Charlevoix--Haute-Côte-Nord	Bloc
Mount Royal	Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine	Liberal
Outremont	NDP
Papineau	Liberal
Pierrefonds--Dollard	Liberal
Pontiac	Bloc
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier	independent
Québec	Bloc
Repentigny	Bloc
Richmond--Arthabaska	Bloc
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques	Bloc
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	Bloc
Rivière-du-Nord	Bloc
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean	Conservative
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie	Bloc
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert	Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot	Bloc
Saint-Jean	Bloc
Saint-Lambert	Bloc
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville	Liberal
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel	Liberal
Saint-Maurice--Champlain	Bloc
Shefford	Bloc
Sherbrooke	Bloc
Terrebonne--Blainville	Bloc
Trois-Rivières	Bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges	Bloc
Verchères--Les Patriotes	Bloc
Westmount--Ville-Marie	Liberal
ON	106
Ajax--Pickering	Liberal
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing	NDP
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale	Conservative
Barrie	Conservative
Beaches--East York	NDP
Bramalea--Gore--Malton	Liberal
Brampton West	Liberal
Brampton--Springdale	Liberal
Brant	Conservative
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound	Conservative
Burlington	Conservative
Cambridge	Conservative
Carleton--Mississippi Mills	Conservative
Chatham-Kent--Essex	Conservative
Davenport	Liberal
Don Valley East	Liberal
Don Valley West	Liberal
Dufferin--Caledon	Conservative
Durham	Conservative
Eglinton--Lawrence	Liberal
Elgin--Middlesex--London	Conservative
Essex	Conservative
Etobicoke Centre	Liberal
Etobicoke North	Liberal
Etobicoke--Lakeshore	Liberal
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell	Conservative
Guelph	Liberal
Haldimand--Norfolk	Conservative
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock	Conservative
Halton	Conservative
Hamilton Centre	NDP
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek	NDP
Hamilton Mountain	NDP
Huron--Bruce	Conservative
Kenora	NDP
Kingston and the Islands	Liberal
Kitchener Centre	Liberal
Kitchener--Conestoga	Conservative
Kitchener--Waterloo	Liberal
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex	Conservative
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington	Conservative
Leeds--Grenville	Conservative
London North Centre	Liberal
London West	Conservative
London--Fanshawe	NDP
Markham--Unionville	Liberal
Mississauga East--Cooksville	Liberal
Mississauga South	Conservative
Mississauga--Brampton South	Liberal
Mississauga--Erindale	Conservative
Mississauga--Streetsville	Liberal
Nepean--Carleton	Conservative
Newmarket--Aurora	Liberal
Niagara Falls	Conservative
Niagara West--Glanbrook	Conservative
Nickel Belt	NDP
Nipissing--Timiskaming	Liberal
Northumberland--Quinte West	Conservative
Oak Ridges--Markham	Liberal
Oakville	Conservative
Oshawa	NDP
Ottawa Centre	NDP
Ottawa South	Liberal
Ottawa West--Nepean	Conservative
Ottawa--Orléans	Conservative
Ottawa--Vanier	Liberal
Oxford	Conservative
Parkdale--High Park	NDP
Parry Sound--Muskoka	Conservative
Perth--Wellington	Conservative
Peterborough	Conservative
Pickering--Scarborough East	Liberal
Prince Edward--Hastings	Conservative
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke	Conservative
Richmond Hill	Liberal
Sarnia--Lambton	Conservative
Sault Ste. Marie	NDP
Scarborough Centre	Liberal
Scarborough Southwest	Liberal
Scarborough--Agincourt	Liberal
Scarborough--Guildwood	Liberal
Scarborough--Rouge River	Liberal
Simcoe North	Conservative
Simcoe--Grey	Conservative
St. Catharines	Conservative
St. Paul's	Liberal
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry	Conservative
Sudbury	NDP
Thornhill	Liberal
Thunder Bay--Rainy River	NDP
Thunder Bay--Superior North	NDP
Timmins--James Bay	NDP
Toronto Centre	Liberal
Toronto--Danforth	NDP
Trinity--Spadina	NDP
Vaughan	Liberal
Welland	NDP
Wellington--Halton Hills	Conservative
Whitby--Oshawa	Conservative
Willowdale	Liberal
Windsor West	NDP
Windsor--Tecumseh	NDP
York Centre	Liberal
York South--Weston	Liberal
York West	Liberal
York--Simcoe	Conservative
MB	14
Brandon--Souris	Conservative
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia	Conservative
Churchill	NDP
Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette	Conservative
Elmwood--Transcona	NDP
Kildonan--St. Paul	Conservative
Portage--Lisgar	Conservative
Provencher	Conservative
Saint Boniface	Liberal
Selkirk--Interlake	NDP
Winnipeg Centre	NDP
Winnipeg North	NDP
Winnipeg South	Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre	Liberal
SK	14
Battlefords--Lloydminster	Conservative
Blackstrap	Conservative
Cypress Hills--Grasslands	Conservative
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River	Conservative
Palliser	NDP
Prince Albert	Conservative
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre	Conservative
Regina--Qu'Appelle	NDP
Saskatoon--Humboldt	Conservative
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar	NDP
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin	Conservative
Souris--Moose Mountain	Conservative
Wascana	Liberal
Yorkton--Melville	Conservative
AB	28
Calgary Centre	Conservative
Calgary Centre-North	Conservative
Calgary East	Conservative
Calgary Northeast	Conservative
Calgary Southeast	Conservative
Calgary Southwest	Conservative
Calgary West	Conservative
Calgary--Nose Hill	Conservative
Crowfoot	Conservative
Edmonton Centre	Conservative
Edmonton East	Conservative
Edmonton--Leduc	Conservative
Edmonton--Mill Woods--Beaumont	Conservative
Edmonton--Sherwood Park	Conservative
Edmonton--Spruce Grove	Conservative
Edmonton--St. Albert	Conservative
Edmonton--Strathcona	NDP
Fort McMurray--Athabasca	Conservative
Lethbridge	Conservative
Macleod	Conservative
Medicine Hat	Conservative
Peace River	Conservative
Red Deer	Conservative
Vegreville--Wainwright	Conservative
Westlock--St. Paul	Conservative
Wetaskiwin	Conservative
Wild Rose	Conservative
Yellowhead	Conservative
BC	36
Abbotsford	Conservative
British Columbia Southern Interior	NDP
Burnaby--Douglas	NDP
Burnaby--New Westminster	NDP
Cariboo--Prince George	Conservative
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon	Conservative
Delta--Richmond East	Conservative
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca	NDP
Fleetwood--Port Kells	Conservative
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo	Conservative
Kelowna--Lake Country	Conservative
Kootenay--Columbia	Conservative
Langley	Conservative
Nanaimo--Alberni	Conservative
Nanaimo--Cowichan	NDP
New Westminster--Coquitlam	NDP
Newton--North Delta	NDP
North Vancouver	Liberal
Okanagan--Coquihalla	Conservative
Okanagan--Shuswap	Conservative
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission	NDP
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam	Conservative
Prince George--Peace River	Conservative
Richmond	Liberal
Saanich--Gulf Islands	Liberal
Skeena--Bulkley Valley	NDP
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale	Conservative
Surrey North	NDP
Vancouver Centre	Liberal
Vancouver East	NDP
Vancouver Island North	NDP
Vancouver Kingsway	Liberal
Vancouver Quadra	Liberal
Vancouver South	Liberal
Victoria	NDP
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country	Liberal
YK	1
Yukon	Liberal
WA	1
Western Arctic	NDP
NU	1
Nunavut	Liberal

Oshawa - a very tight race between the NDP and the Conservatives

Accidental Deliberations: On bookends

The current polls show the Conservatives with a very slim lead over the NDP.

Voting Recommendations - Canada Election 2008

The following are my strategic voting recommendations for some specific ridings in order to keep the Conservatives out. My preference is for the NDP, but where they have too little support in the polls, I've chosen another party.

These recommendations are based on the latest polls in ridings (using the data listed at voteforenvironment.ca) Oct. 9, 2008. Some of these ridings seem to have a clear winner, but things can change between now and election day. The important thing is that you get out and maintain your right to vote and help the NDP, or the lesser of evils, get more seats than the Conservatives.


Nova Scotia
Central Nova - vote for Mary Louise Lorefice, NDP
Unlike what the main stream media (MSM), the Liberal Party and the Green Party think, the NDP stand the best chance of wresting this riding from the Conservatives. The Liberals decided to not run a candidate in this riding to help Elizabeth May, Green Party leader, gain a seat. However, records show, that this has always been a two-way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. The COMBINED support of Liberals and Greens in this riding does not even add up to the support the NDP have here. To stop the Conservatives here, progressives should vote NDP.

Quebec
Outremont - vote for Thomas Mulcair, NDP
Currently, the NDP is way out in front of the Liberal candidate here. The other parties have little support. Vote NDP here.


Ontario
Barrie - vote for Rick Jones, Lib
This is a close race between Rick Jones and Patrick Brown, Con. The NDP support is far to low for them to take this seat, so, hold your nose and vote Liberal here.

Simcoe North - vote for Steve Clarke, LIb
This is a close race between Steve Clarke and Bruce Stanton, Con. The NDP support is far to low for them to take this seat, so, hold your nose and vote Liberal here.

Oshawa - vote for Mike Shields, NDP
A very tight two-way race between the NDP and the Conservatives here. Liberals should vote NDP here to keep the Cons out.

London-Fanshawe - vote for Irene Mathyssen, NDP
NDP is the front runner in the polls. Cons and Libs are tied in second. Liberals should vote NDP here to keep the Cons out.

Thunder Bay-Superior North - vote for Bruce Hyer, NDP
NDP leads in the polls here with the Liberals in second. Vote NDP.


Toronto
Trinity-Spadina - vote for Olivia Chow, NDP
Olivia is out in front here. Second place is Liberal. Let's keep a great MP in office. Vote for Olivia Chow

Toronto-Danforth - vote for Jack Layton, NDP
Jack is far in the lead here. Let's send the best of the leaders back to parliament. Vote Jack.

Parkdale-High Park - vote for Peggy Nash, NDP
This is a fairly close race between Peggy Nash and Gerrard Kennedy, Lib. Throughout the campaign, Peggy has been ahead in the polls.

Beaches-East York - vote for Marilyn Churley, NDP
This is a very tight race between Marilyn Churley and Maria Minna, Lib. Marilyn is a seasoned politician and environmentalist, while Maria has been a do-nothing MP for years. Help make a difference and vote Marilyn a seat in parliament.


Alberta
Edmonton-Strathcona - vote for Linda Duncan, NDP
This is a close two-way race between Linda Duncan and Rahim Jaffer, Con. Liberals should vote NDP here to keep the Cons out.


BC
New Westminster-Coquitlam - vote for Dawn Black, NDP
A very tight two-way race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Vote NDP and re-elect Dawn Black.

Surrey North - vote for Rachid Arab, NDP
This is a race between the NDP and the Conservatives. The NDP are currently in front in the polls. Re-elect the NDP to this riding.

Vancouver Island North - vote for Catherine Bell, NDP
A very tight race between the NDP and the Conservatives. Re-elect Catherine Bell, NDP.

Vancouver Kingsway - vote for Don Davies, NDP
A tight two-way race between the NDP and the Liberals. This is the riding that saw the winner of the last election, David Emerson, cross the floor from the Liberals to join the Conservative Party. Vote for the NDP here.

Who won the debate? Watch this.

The Butcher Shoppe: Layton in Control in the Debates

NDP offers the best childcare plan

TheStar.com - No licensed child care for majority of Canadian kids

An NDP government in Ottawa would elevate child care to the same status as medicare by introducing legislation, similar to the Canada Health Act, that would make federal spending on high-quality, affordable and accessible child care the law of the land, Layton said. The NDP would also keep the Harper "baby bonus" but invest $1.45 billion in the first year of a mandate to create 150,000 new spaces, growing to 220,000 spots annually as federal finances allowed.

Harper will wreck economy

TheStar.com - Harper will wreck economy, Layton charges

Look what Harper has done already: taken a surplus and turned it into a deficit by giving away 50 billion dollars to already wealthy corporations.

Canada risks a U.S.-style economic crisis if the Conservatives are re-elected, NDP Leader Jack Layton says.

Layton said Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's outdated economic policies of huge corporate tax cuts reflect those of the United States that have led to the near economic collapse there.

"Stephen Harper's understanding of the economy is simply based on old ideas that you give giant tax cut to huge corporations and somehow everything will work out," said Layton, speaking today to a partisan rally at a golf course overlooking the city.

"Well we have seen that model before and we are watching it self-destruct south of the border. We can't afford in Canada to have that kind of economic orthodoxy for four more years in the House of Commons with a Prime Minister who doesn't get it."

Layton said Canada is already reeling from the loss of 400,000 manufacturing jobs in the past five years, adding that many of these same people are in desperate financial straits wondering how they are going to pay the bills and mortgage.

"This is exactly what happened in the United States. More and more people couldn't cover those basic costs and the 'real' economy began to falter long before the crisis we have seen in the last couple of weeks," he said.

Which party best represents your views in the 2008 federal election?

TheStar.com Party Game

Take this short quiz to find out which party best represents your views.

People turning to the NDP

globeandmail.com: Turn to NDP to stop Harper, Layton says after poll gains

Is the MSM beginning to take the NDP seriously?

globeandmail.com: The big Dipper reaches for the stars

This article in the Globe by Gloria Galloway explores the rise of the NDP during this election campaign. There have been more and more articles like this recently, unlike previous campaigns, where the MSM almost completely ignored the NDP.

People are starting to realize the NDP as a real alternative to the other main parties.

Looks like the NDP will most likely win in Parkdale-High Park

spurs: Pundits beginning to predict a Kennedy loss in Parkdale High Park

Provincially the riding is held by another popular New Democrat woman, Cheri DiNovo. Between DiNovo and Nash, they have the riding all sewn up.

If Kennedy loses, it will be poetic justice. He was the guy who foisted Dion on an unsuspecting party by throwing his support behind him in the leadership convention.

Also, the Liberal party decided to stop representing their constituents months ago by being absent and abstaining from voting in parliament. Send a message to the Liberals - you have to actually stand up for your constituents to represent them. If you are not going to, why should we vote for you.

How many more people must die?

Poison food crisis shows Harper’s contempt for government

The entire handling of this emergency demonstrates callous
incompetence. Worse, it reveals a lethal contempt by Harper for the
most basic role of government - ensuring public health and safety. It
also reflects a hostility of government as a constructive force in our
society.

Since his first days in office in 2006, Harper has steadily cut
funding for food safety programs and inspectors, shifting ever greater
responsibility to the food companies themselves.



According to current Treasury Board of Canada forecasts, funding for
food safety programs will have declined by almost 30% from $359
million in 2006-07 to $254 million in 2010-11 under Harper's watch.



At the same time, a secret government document recently brought to
light by a government employee reveals that the government has been
planning to let the foxes further guard the henhouse by expanding
industry self-policing of food safety.



The listeriosis crisis is reminiscent of the poison water scandal that
rocked Walkerton, Ont., in 2000. That disaster was caused in large
part by government cutbacks and a deliberate weakening of provincial
inspection and safety procedures by the Ontario regime of Conservative
Premier Mike Harris.



Harper's cabinet now includes some of the same ministers who were part
of the Harris government, ministers who should have learned the
obvious lessons of the Walkerton tragedy.



That they did not makes an even more chilling point: the ineptitude
now apparent in Ottawa is not merely a failure to learn the lessons of
Walkerton. It bespeaks an ideological contempt for anything and
everything that government can do to better society.

Unconvinced that you shouldn't vote Conservative - Here are 100 reasons to NOT vote Conservative

100 Reasons

This is a great bit of resource material listing 100 reasons to not vote Conservative. If you are thinking of voting for them, read this first!

Due to changes made by the Harper government, tens of thousands of Canadians may die.

The Gazetteer: Stephen Harper's Canada.....Worse Than Listeriosis?

"And listeriosis may be the least of it. The same November 2007 Cabinet decision that handed self-inspection to the owners of meat plants did the same for operators of animal feed mills and cut back the avian influenza preparedness program. Yet bad animal feed led to the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalitis (mad cow disease), and in an influenza pandemic tens of thousands of Canadians may die. Listeriosis pales in comparison. Overall, it would seem that, as a country, Canada is far less prepared now for epidemics than in the past......"

NDP want to put the inspectors back in the meat plants

globeandmail.com: Put inspectors in every Canadian meat plant: Layton

NDP Leader Jack Layton wants meat inspectors on the floor of every meat processing plant in Canada.

Standing outside Parliament today, Layton says it's the only way to prevent another disaster like the listeriosis outbreak that's been blamed for 17 deaths.

Mr. Layton also wants imported meats made subject to the same kind of inspections Canadian meats undergo.

Mr. Layton continues to blame the outbreak on the government, saying the Conservatives want to let businesses do whatever they want without oversight.

The Harper government reduced the meat inspections. As a result, people have died. The Harper government also plans on reducing meat inspections across the country. Jack Layton and the NDP actually care about human lives and want to put the inspectors back in the plants so people don't die and get sick.

City Bike Rental Plan

The City of Toronto is pondering a large-scale inexpensive bicycle rental program.

TheStar.com | GTA | City gears up for bike rental plan

Everyday Pollutants As Detrimental As Smoke

Everyday Pollutants as Detrimental as Smoke | Popular Science

Clement's Comments Repugnant

From the Globe & Mail:
"A doctor who works with addicts at North America's only supervised injection site says Health Minister Tony Clement's slam against physicians who support the facility is “repugnant” and “introduces an element of ugliness into the discussion.”

Dr. Gabor Mate said Tuesday he is outraged by Mr. Clement's suggestion that doctors who permit or encourage patients to shoot up at the Vancouver site, called Insite, lack medical ethics.

“As an expression of somebody who calls himself a minister of health, it's a very unhealthy statement,” Mate said.

“The repugnant aspect is his attack on the morality and ethics of human beings who are trying to work with a very difficult population."

This is the type of un-informed bulldozer approach Clement took as a Minister in the Ontario conservative government. No surprise here. We are very unfortunate to have this person as the health minister of our nation now.

MobileMe so bad that Apple is giving it away

from The Inquirer
"Companies stuff up, but those companies who claim they are perfect, deny they do anything wrong and have a team of quasi-religious loonies believing in it, deserve a good kicking when they fail."

The US and Georgia

From Al Jazeera:
"The United States seeks to use Georgia as an 'energy corridor' to transport Caspian energy to the West without going through Iran or Russia; to this end, it helped build the BTC pipeline across Georgia and helped beef up the Georgian military to protect it."

Again, it's all about oil.

NAFTA - Worst Agreement Ever Signed by A Canadian Government

I always figured that NAFTA was going to be very very bad for Canada and great for heads of large international corporations. And, over the years, NAFTA has proven itself to be just that.
Yesterday, in the Globe & Mail, Murray Dobbin summed things up nicely

I Hope This Goes To Court - Re: Harper Sues Liberals

Just reported in the Globe,Harper Sues Dion, Key Liberals, For Libel.

If the allegations are true, then the Liberals will stick to their guns and go to court. Or, the Liberals will back down and retract their statements. Unfortunately, the Liberals will probably back down.

If it does go to court, then the evidence will out. Someone directed those high-level Conservative party members to bribe Cadman, and Harper was the leader of the Conservatives at the time...

Smoking Gun on the Cadman Story

Chuck Cadman's daughter just revealed that her dad told her about the million dollar insurance policy bribe while on his deathbed.

Dion Admits To Propping Up the Conservatives, And, The Liberals May Return to Being An Opposition Party

Today in the Globe & Mail, Dion admits to propping up the Conservatives and hints that the Liberals may return to being an actual opposition party; that they will instead consider each vote on its on merit, including those related to a budget.

It's about time. I want my Canada back, please. Sooner than later.

Stephen Harper: A Mistake Canada Must Never Repeat

Stephen Harper, at the wrap up of the Commonwealth Summit, described the Kyoto Accord as a mistake the world must never repeat. What shame and embarrassment Harper has brought to Canada - a country whose majority supports the Kyoto Accord and firm action on climate change.
I say that Harper is a mistake that Canadians must never repeat.

Let's vote him out now and have a new election. The Conservatives have done so much damage to Canada and have such a terrible record now, that it would be impossible for them to be re-elected even as a minority government. Pressure your MP (hint: Liberals) to kick out the Conservatives now.


Addendum
Opposition members call Harper an "environmental criminal", a "saboteur" and "an international pariah".

Yet Another Reason to Kick The Buttheads Out!

Stephen Harper is embarrassing Canada yet again, this time in the Commonwealth meeting by holding out against the other countries (I don't count Australia because it seems that today their government will change to a pro-environment government) aim to come up with binding targets for fighting pollution that contributes to Climate Change.

Stephen Harper and his Conservative government are pro-pollution, there is no other way to put it. Lets kick them out now before they do further damage to Canada, and our reputation in the world. (Take a hint Liberals - when you are against a confidence motion, you vote AGAINST it - not sit on your thumbs while Canada burns!)

Fave recent quote in Question Period - when Gilles Duceppe called the Minister of the Environment "the Minister of Pollution and Oil Companies".

Liberal-Conservative Coalition Government

Who would have thought that the Liberals would form a coalition government with the Conservatives? Well, they virtually have by abstaining on these confidence motions.

The Fifth Column put it best with this recent post.

And, here's a good one on the topic of Dion threatening to kick MPs out of the Liberal caucus if they vote against the government - from Blogging A Dead Horse.

And more here from The Experiment.

UPDATE:
Even the Toronto Star is getting in on this.

Stop SPP!

Thanks to A Creative Revolution for posting about this new development about SPP.

Find out more about SPP at this NDP site

Under the SPP, Canada will have less and less ability to adopt independent and sustainable economic, social, cultural and environmental policies. Undemocratic harmonization of health, safety, and enviromental standards will lead to a race to the bottom where everyday Canadians lose out.

In the long run, this could have a lethal effect on Canadian public programs such as universal healthcare and public education.

Harper is fast tracking the complete sellout of our sovereignty.

The NDP Vision For Canada

As posted in The Toronto Star today.

...Mr. Harper's government is taking Canada in the wrong direction. Most Canadians know it. We feel it deep down.

His agenda doesn't match our dreams of what our country could achieve. A Conservative future means that hard-working families will fall further behind; our environment will continue to deteriorate as pollution increases and our water becomes unsafe; and Canada's role on the world stage will continue to run counter to the values that we hold dear as a country.

...

But it doesn't have to be this way.

...

It's time for Canadians to dream big, not only for their families, but for their country. It's time that we closed the prosperity gap, tackled climate change, and ensured that Canada plays a positive role on the world stage.

The NDP is offering a bold plan and the leadership to get us there.

It's time to build again. Don’t let them tell you it can't be done.

You Tell 'Em Jack!

As I've been saying, the Liberals are not doing the job their constituents elected them to do, they aren't acting as the official opposition should, and by this they are giving the Conservatives a virtual majority government.

Jack Layton, as reported today in the Globe & Mail:
“It's going to be very symbolic to watch our members rise in the House — willing to put their jobs, their principles, their commitments on the line — and then to watch the official opposition sit it out.”

Afghan Poll Suspect and Contradictory

The Canadian Peace Alliance brings up questions about the poll.

There are still many other unanswered questions about this survey. For example, did security or military contingents escort the survey teams around the country? If so the results will be terribly skewed, as these types of escorts would have destroyed the impartiality of the surveyors. Also, if 75 per cent of respondents called for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban (a number that has been omitted from most media reports on the survey) how do we reconcile that with the 64 per cent who want us to continue to fight the Taliban. Furthermore, if only 2 per cent of respondents knew that Canada was fighting the Taliban, how did that 64 per cent think that we were doing a good job.

See also Thomas Walkom's column in the Toronto Star.

NDP on the Rise

According to the latest Environics poll (of 2,047 Canadians), the NDP's popularity is on the rise.
The significant areas are:

Atlantic Canada +6% , where they are virtually in a 3-way tie with the other 2 main parties with 30% support, vs 29% Conservative and 35% Liberal

Quebec +5% to 17% (tied with the Liberals in 3rd place)

Saskatchewan +5% to 27% - second place to the Conservatives with 39%

However, the NDP dropped by 11 points in Manitoba.

Also, Jack Layton is:
in 2nd place for Best Choice for Prime Minister (19% vs 37% for Stephan Harper)
and has the highest approval rating for leaders (56% vs 52% for Stephan Harper)

The NDP is up 2 points overall (largest rise for any party since the last poll) and the Conservatives are down 4 points (largest drop for any party since the last poll), since the last poll in June 2007

Dion and the Liberals Wimp Out - Tells Canadians to Bend Over for Stephen Harper

What Stephane Dion is really telling Canadians by abstaining - "Bend over for Harper, Canada!"

Today Stephane Dion and the Liberals decided to say yes to more bad governing by Harper and the Conservatives by deciding to abstain from voting on the Throne Speech.

By abstaining on this vote, I would say that is equivalent to walking off the job in this situation. We don't pay our representatives to sit idly by while the country needs them.

Canada is suffering under the Harper government and the Liberals decide to allow it to continue when they have the chance to end the suffering.

Will Liberal supporters go along with this, or, will they change their vote to another party next election? In my opinion, Dion has shown poor leadership with this move to support the Harper government - especially after the past year of pies that Harper has thrown in the faces of Canadians.

Canadians, in polls, may say they don't want another election, but they also don't want to see Canada ruined. It's time to kick the bums out and have a new election. With all the dirt that the Conservatives have piled up over the past year, how can they not be beaten in a new election?

The only national leader with any leadership ability here is Jack Layton. Keep at 'em Jack!

Jack Layton Most Popular Leader in Quebec!

Thanks to Le Revue Gauche for bringing this story to light:

Jack Layton, NDP leader, has the highest score for leadership in Quebec in a recent poll by Ipsos-Reid, at 64%, followed by Duceppe at 63%, Harper at 61% and Dion at 31%. Nationally, they line up as Harper at 63%, Layton at 57%, and Dion at 36%.

I think these are the highest ratings yet for Layton. Maybe there is hope for some more NDP gain in seats in the upcoming federal election.

MMP - The Aftermath and The Future

Nothing much changed with this election. The number of seats changed only by one (one less for the Liberals, and one more for the Conservatives). And, the NDP did better than the last provincial election in seats and popular support (3 more seats and about 2% more popular support), and a lot of Conservative support switched to the Green party, almost tripling their vote.
And, the electoral system remains at FPTP.

Here are some numbers for thought:

This was the lowest voter turnout in the history of the province - 52%.
(4.4 million out of 8.4 million eligible voters)
And, only 39% of these people of these people voted in the referendum (1.7 million voters).
And, the referendum was defeated by 63% of these people (1 million voters).

The highest support for MMP in a single riding was in my riding of Trinity-Spadina - 59%

How did MMP fail?
I agree with how More notes from underground put it:
It was overwhelmed by the election. It could have been explained much better. More people probably based their decision on the Toronto Star's fearmongering editorials. The MSM still dominates political debate for most people. And, Ontario's cautious political nature.

But, information did come out and at least about 700,000 people managed to learn enough about MMP to want to embrace it in the referendum. This means that there is that seed of knowledge out there in Ontario, which can only grow. Of the people who voted in the referendum, in the youth group of 18-34, 67% voted for MMP.

Now, here is the food for thought for those who voted against MMP.

If you recalculate the seats from this election under MMP, we would see something like this

Party - Vote % - Seats under FPTP - Seats under MMP

Lib - 42% - 71 - 45
Con - 32% - 26 - 35
NDP - 17% - 10 - 18
Green - 8% - 0 - 9

In this election, the majority, 58%, did not vote for the Liberal party. But now, for the next 4 years, the Liberal party will rule with an absolute majority power in parliament.
If we had MMP, the Liberals would have a minority of seats in parliament and would have to work with others (either vote by vote or in collaboration) in order to govern - which would be more representative of the people of Ontario.

MMP may be gone for now, but it will not be forgotten.

Why Should Liberals Vote for MMP?

Read the post at democraticSPACE.
Great post. But, of note is the comment by Dean Sherratt:

I agree because at this moment the “other parties” would lean left…NDP and Green. What right wing parties would the Conservatives add to their vote total? Hence, the PCs would need near to a majority to form a government, while the Liberals could sink to 30% or less and still form a coalition-style government.

Well, I wouldn't call the Green Party a Left party anymore (as some of their fiscal policies lean more Right than the Conservatives), you get the idea - the NDP policies are no where near in similarity to the Conservative policies, while they are more similar to the Liberal policies. So, a Liberal minority government would most likely form a coalition with the NDP in an MMP situation. This would be the most likely form of the government for some time under MMP.

If MMP Is So Great For Party Bosses, How Come They Are Fighting It So Hard?

John Torry and the Conservatives have come out swinging today against MMP. Included in their tirade is the usual pack of lies about MMP.

Steve Withers of the Vote For MMP campaign expressed concern at the Conservative email.

"The void left by Elections Ontario is being filled by ... fact-free fear-mongering," he said, criticizing the province's non-partisan elections commission for not doing enough to inform voters despite a $6.8 million advertising blitz.

Withers also questioned the logic of MMP opponents who claim unelected backroom insiders would wield more power.

"MMP is great for party bosses? If it was, how come they're fighting it so hard?" he said.

With the Conservatives doing so poorly in the polls right now, this means that a large portion of Conservative votes will be wasted in this election. Most likely one half to one quarter of Conservative voters won't end up being represented by Conservative seats in parliament. With MMP, ALL the Conservative voters would end up being represented by Conservative seats in parliament. It leaves you wondering, are the Conservative party bosses just daft, or are they afraid of something? And if party bosses don't like it, it's got to be good for average citizens. It is us, the average citizen, that will gain more power, and the party bosses who will lose power in MMP.

A vote FOR MMP on Oct 10th, is a vote for increased voter power in elections. Don't forget that.

Ontario Referendum Picker Quiz v.2

Here is an updated version of the Referendum Picker Quiz.

This is a quiz to help you chose how to vote in the referendum on Oct. 10 2007 in Ontario.

Get a pen and paper and write down your answers. Then score the answer and total your score and refer to the Score Results at the end to see how you should vote.

Note: Nothing takes the place of full and proper research of both sides of the issue. But, if you have done that and are still unsure, this quiz might help.

QUESTIONS

1) I would prefer a system where

a) I am represented in parliament by whoever wins in my riding, regardless of what party they represent and regardless of whether I voted for them or not.

b) I am represented in parliament by a member of the party I voted for, as well as by whoever wins in my riding, regardless of what party they represent and regardless of whether I voted for them or not.

2) I would prefer to have

a) a majority government only when the party actually wins a majority of the popular vote

b) a majority government when the party wins a majority of the seats, regardless of the whether they received a majority or a minority of the popular vote

3) In a minority government situation, I would prefer the main government party to

a) govern as best they can on their own with as little collaboration and/or compromise with the other parties as possible in order to get done what they can in a minority voting position

b) find common ground with one or more other parties by collaborating and/or making compromises in order to get done what they can in a majority voting position

4) In an election, I would prefer

a) to be able to vote for a local candidate only

b) to be able to vote for a party, as well as a local candidate

5) Currently, Ontario voters have the lowest level of provincial representation in Canada, with each Ontario legislator representing more voters, by far, than legislators in any other province. With this in mind

a) I would prefer that the number of elected seats in parliament remain at 107

b) I would prefer to increase the number of elected seats in parliament to 129

6) If you were in a riding where the party you support never usually has a chance of winning, which of the following would make you more likely to vote in an election

a) if you knew that the local candidate/party you vote for would probably lose, and then you would not be represented in parliament by a candidate/party of your choosing

b) if you knew that the local candidate you vote for would probably lose, but that you could also vote for the party you want and be represented by them in parliament (regardless of whether your local candidate wins or loses)

7) If a party you didn't vote for won a majority of seats in an election, although 60% of the voters voted for other parties, do you think it is fair that this party (which only represents 40% of the voters) governs absolutely without input from the other parties (that represent 60% of the voters) for 4 years?

a) Yes, it is fair

b) No, it is not fair

8) If you feel your vote never counts since the party you vote for never wins, so you have stopped voting, would you start voting again if

a) your vote counted all the time

b) your vote only counted if the party you voted for won

9) Would you prefer

a) that the members of parliament better reflect the diversity of gender and ethnicity that we have across the province

b) that the members of parliament remain mainly white men.

10) Would you prefer that

a) voters have more power in their say as to who makes up the government

b) voters have less power in their say as to who makes up the government

SCORING

1) a-0, b-1

2) a-1, b-0

3) a-0, b-1

4) a-0, b-1

5) a-0, b-1

6) a-0, b-1

7) a-0, b-1

8) a-1, b-0

9) a-1, b-0

10) a-1, b-0

SCORE RESULTS

0 - First Past The Post All The Way!

You should vote to keep the current electoral system of FPTP

1-4 - First Past The Post

You should vote to keep the current electoral system of FPTP, but you think there are some good things about MMP

5-6 - Research More

You are beginning to get the picture about MMP, but you still believe FPTP has it's merits. You should do more research before Oct. 10th.

7-9 - Mixed Member Proportional

You should vote for the new electoral system of MMP, but you still think there are a few things about FPTP you like better

10 - Mixed Member Proportional All The Way!

You should vote for the new electoral system of MMP

You Tell'Em Howie!

Howard Hampton, leader of the Ontario Provincial NDP, took the mainstream media to task today for focusing on issues that are not at the top of peoples' minds.

Will we see the media start to report on the real issues? That would be nice. Let's see proper reporting and information on the Referendum and MMP. Let's see reporting on the environment, proper funding of schools, energy/electricity issues, child poverty, homelessness, seniors homes, and so on.

UPDATE
See James Laxer's

Why Howard Hampton and the NDP Deserve Your Support on Wednesday