Toronto Mayoral Race: Joe Still Rising

From the Joe Pantalone campaign team:

A new poll conducted October 7-9th by the Logit Group shows a steady swing in momentum towards Joe Pantalone. For the first time Joe's support has topped 20%, while Rob Ford's support has sunk into the 30s. Between the two is George Smitherman. The sharp rise in Joe's numbers, and the fall in Ford's support, creates a clear three way contest in Toronto's mayoral race.

As the people of Toronto have begun to look closely at Rob Ford's record and policies, his support has fallen sharply. Ford's own poll (published in the Toronto Sun this weekend) had him at 49.5% of decided voters one month ago. Ford's simple answers to complex problems may have had initial appeal, but as voters start to truly pay attention that appeal is beginning to vanish.

Joe has the momentum

Momentum is shifting towards Joe just in time for the final stretch of the campaign. Thanks to the endorsement of Mayor David Miller and the launch of an aggressive media campaign, Joe's numbers have hit the highest level so far this campaign. Over the last year voters have gotten to know Joe, and his numbers have steadily risen. In the winter Joe was at only 6%, over the spring he rose to 10%, this summer Joe reached 15%, and now he is over 20%!

We need to keep Joe's momentum growing. Much of the jump in Joe's support comes from the radio ads that began on Monday. We need to get Joe's message into the media as much as possible. To do that we need to buy ads. Please donate now to help us buy more media. Each time we run a radio spot it costs about $100, and reaches tens of thousands of voters. Thanks to the generous city rebate program, a donation of $500, enough to buy five radio spots, will only cost you $175!

Now a three candidate race

Other candidates have tried to turn this into a two way race, but there are three people who could win this election. Only one of these candidates is presenting a positive, city building program. Joe is the only one standing up for a green and sustainable Toronto, the only one with a realistic plan for transit expansion, and the only one who has a decades long record of working collaboratively with others to get things done.

The poll found 19% of voters are still undecided, and 43% of all respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to change their minds and vote for another candidate before October 25th. The study showed that Joe had the highest amount of second choice support of all of the major candidates. The survey was a telephone poll with sample size of 500. The results are accurate to within + or - 4%, nineteen times out of twenty. The poll was commissioned by an anonymous Toronto business leader and the results were forwarded to the Pantalone campaign.

This poll suggests that the public will also now start to focus on George Smitherman and his promises to cut city services, to privatize the TTC bus routes, to build city jails and his record of financial mismanagement at e-Health while he was the province's Minister of Health.

Joe can win this election, but he needs all of us behind him. Donate or volunteer today to make sure we elect a mayor to be proud of on October 25th.

Have a great day,

John Laschinger

The numbers in this Logit Group poll are in line with the trend from the last Nanos poll and the Ekos poll before that, which showed Ford's support dropping, Smitherman stagnating in the low 20% range, and Pantalone continuing to rise.